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Data-driven stock valuation

Circle SpA (CIRC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Circle SpA stock €8.55, price €17.60, that is 51.4% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology IT · ISIN IT0005344996

CS Circle SpA logo Some data Nov 3, 2026

Circle SpA

CIRC · MI
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 51% below what the stock costs today.

Solidly profitable · 11.0% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Revenue last quarter +45% vs. a year ago.
Quality 51/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +30.9 %/yr in EUR)
Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
Moderate moat 57/100 · thin data
Some data
Fair value €8.55 · Strongly overvalued
Negative free cash flow
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€18.80 €3.16 Fair Value €8.55 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €3.16 – €18.80 · fair‑value band €5.68 – €15.05 · the €17.60 price screens above the €8.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Circle S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides management consultancy, IT, and software solutions for the port, maritime, and logistics sectors in Italy.

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The company offers European affairs consultancy services comprising EU funding accelerator to develop successful applications for funding; and international consultancy services.

The company also offers Milos Global Supply Chain Visibility, a suite designed for industrial companies to ensure continuous monitoring and control of the supply chain; MasterSPED, a platform for freight forwarders and customs operators; Milos Federative and Customs Services, a set of tools and services that enables easy and up-to-date interoperability among different actors of the logistics chain and customs processes; and StarTracking, an airport-to-airport tracking solution with real-time status updates.

Circle S.p.A. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Genoa, Italy.

Stock analysis

Circle SpA (CIRC) currently trades at €17.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.55, 51% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €18.93 per share, and 4 of the 15 models we run sit above the €17.60 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.9700, and 11 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €5.68 (bear) to €15.05 (bull), the price of €17.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Circle SpA reported revenue of €20.5M in FY2025 versus €7.1M in FY2021, a compound +30.2%/yr. Reported net income was €2.2M in FY2025, compounding +57.8%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap €82.4M Micro · P/E ratio 30.3 · P/S ratio 3.26 · EPS (TTM) €0.5800 · Net margin 10.8% · Return on equity 15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 15.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 129% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at −51%, CIRC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €5.68 Fair Value €8.55 Bull €15.05
Price €17.60 · Downside -51.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.4974 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV €4.81 €5.29 €5.68 74
Owner Earnings €4.70 €8.55 €15.05 73
ROIC Compounder €5.68 €7.58 €8.73 72
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €4.70 €8.55 €15.05 73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €3.14 €21.90 €30.74 63
Lynch FV €9.59 €13.70 €17.82 61
PEG = 1.0 €9.59 €13.70 €17.82 57
EPV €4.81 €5.29 €5.68 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple €9.70 €12.93 €16.17 63
P/S Multiple €5.89 €7.85 €9.82 58
P/B Multiple €6.06 €8.08 €10.10 55
EV/EBIT €13.46 €17.79 €22.13 66
EV/EBITDA €18.97 €25.14 €31.30 67
EV/Revenue €7.03 €9.85 €12.67 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.6400 €0.9700 €1.21 55
Economic Profit
Residual Income €2.78 €3.15 €4.05 71
ROIC Compounder €5.68 €7.58 €8.73 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €13.25 €18.93 €24.61 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 55
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 87
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 10
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 79
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 30
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 81
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 82
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 95
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 42
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+91.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +28.2% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+51.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+51.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.36.5% vs 14.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 17%
2025 sits 53% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

CIRC screens overvalued: fair value 51% below the price. Compare with International Business Machines Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 479 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −51.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 15.5% · Above median
Return on assets 6.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 11.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 15.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 45.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.11× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 30.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 5.33× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 3.31× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 11.3× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)62 · sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)95 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 40

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation CTSH $64.72 $139.68 +116% vs CIRC
Wipro Limited WIPRO ₹198.00 ₹287.86 +45% vs CIRC
Infosys Limited INFY ₹1,181 ₹1,655 +40% vs CIRC
Accenture plc ACN $260.50 $332.90 +28% vs CIRC
Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS ₹2,499 ₹2,993 +20% vs CIRC
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,440 ₹1,602 +11% vs CIRC
Amadeus IT Group AMS €60.52 €66.57 +10% vs CIRC
CDW Corporation CDW $157.00 $165.54 +5% vs CIRC
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc BR $190.40 $161.18 −15% vs CIRC
International Business Machines Corporation IBM $245.00 $185.39 −24% vs CIRC

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Circle SpA: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Circle SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CIRC

Frequently asked questions

Is Circle SpA (CIRC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €8.55 versus a price of €17.60, about 51% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CIRC?
Our model-based fair value for Circle SpA is €8.55 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €17.60.
What is the quality score of CIRC?
Circle SpA has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Circle SpA (CIRC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €8.55 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.68, optimistic scenario €15.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Circle SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €8.55, about 51% lower versus a price of €17.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €5.68, optimistic scenario €15.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
Circle SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €24.9M (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Circle SpA it is €8.55 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of €17.60. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Circle SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, CIRC trades above its calculated fair value: price €17.60, fair value €8.55, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CIRC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€17.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€8.55). For Circle SpA the two are €9.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Circle SpA worth?
The market values Circle SpA at about €82.4M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is €17.60; our models calculate a fair value of €8.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CIRC?
Our models span a range for Circle SpA: cautious scenario €5.68, base €8.55, optimistic €15.05 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price €17.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CIRC?
Circle SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.3 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €8.55 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings: 24.0. Other multiples: P/B 5.3, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 11.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Circle SpA (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 15.5%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CIRC from its 52-week high?
Circle SpA trades at €17.60, about 6% below its 52-week high of €18.80 and 129% above the low of €7.68 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €8.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Circle SpA?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Circle SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price €17.60, calculated fair value €8.55 (−51%), Quality Score 51/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CIRC calculated?
We run Circle SpA through 15 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €8.55 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Circle SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €17.60. Our model-based fair value is €8.55, about 51% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Circle SpA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€15.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (€5.68 to €15.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Circle SpA

How large is the market capitalisation of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
The market capitalisation of Circle SpA is €82.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Circle SpA is 3.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
Earnings per share at Circle SpA are €0.5800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
The net margin of Circle SpA is 10.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Circle SpA is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Circle SpA is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
The operating margin of Circle SpA is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Circle SpA (CIRC)?
Revenue at Circle SpA is growing +45.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Circle SpA (CIRC)?
Earnings per share at Circle SpA are growing +14.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Circle SpA (CIRC) generate?
The free cash flow of Circle SpA is −€73.2K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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