Circle SpA (CIRC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Circle SpA €3.86, price €15.00, upside -74.3%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.04 – €15.20 · fair‑value band €2.77 – €6.44 · the €15.00 price screens above the €3.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Circle S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides management consultancy, IT, and software solutions for the port, maritime, and logistics sectors in Italy. The company offers European affairs consultancy services comprising EU funding accelerator to develop successful applications for funding; and international consultancy services.
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Circle S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides management consultancy, IT, and software solutions for the port, maritime, and logistics sectors in Italy. The company offers European affairs consultancy services comprising EU funding accelerator to develop successful applications for funding; and international consultancy services. The company also offers Milos Global Supply Chain Visibility, a suite designed for industrial companies to ensure continuous monitoring and control of the supply chain; MasterSPED, a platform for freight forwarders and customs operators; Milos Federative and Customs Services, a set of tools and services that enables easy and up-to-date interoperability among different actors of the logistics chain and customs processes; and StarTracking, an airport-to-airport tracking solution with real-time status updates. Circle S.p.A. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Genoa, Italy.
Stock analysis
Circle SpA (CIRC) currently trades at €15.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.86, implying the stock looks roughly 288.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €10.15 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the €15.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €1.96, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €2.77 (bear) to €6.44 (bull), the price of €15.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Circle SpA reported revenue of €10.7M in FY2024 versus €5.3M in FY2020, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was €1.4M in FY2024.
Key figures
Market cap €70.2M · P/E ratio 30.0 · P/S ratio 3.94 · EPS (TTM) €0.5000 · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 13.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% · Operating margin 13.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 95% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 66% fair-value upside, at −74%, CIRC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €2.77Fair Value €3.86Bull €6.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.5000 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.1%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+33.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 16%
2024 sits 77% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 490 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−74% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth105% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)30.0× · Pricier than median
P/B5.71× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.51× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 44
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)53· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Circle SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CIRC
Frequently asked questions
Is Circle SpA (CIRC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.86 versus a price of €15.00, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CIRC?
Our model-based fair value for Circle SpA is €3.86 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €15.00.
What is the quality score of CIRC?
Circle SpA has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Circle SpA (CIRC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.86 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.77, optimistic scenario €6.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Circle SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.86, about −74% upside versus a price of €15.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.77, optimistic scenario €6.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
Circle SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €22.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Circle SpA it is €3.86 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €15.00. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Circle SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CIRC trades above its calculated fair value: price €15.00, fair value €3.86, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CIRC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€15.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.86). For Circle SpA the two are €11.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Circle SpA worth?
The market values Circle SpA at about €70.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €15.00; our models calculate a fair value of €3.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CIRC?
Our models span a range for Circle SpA: cautious scenario €2.77, base €3.86, optimistic €6.44 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €15.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CIRC?
Circle SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.7, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 12.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Circle SpA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 13.2%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CIRC from its 52-week high?
Circle SpA trades at €15.00, about 1% below its 52-week high of €15.20 and 95% above the low of €7.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Circle SpA?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Circle SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €15.00, calculated fair value €3.86 (−74%), Quality Score 37/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CIRC calculated?
We run Circle SpA through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Circle SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €15.00. Our model-based fair value is €3.86, about −74% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Circle SpA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€6.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (€2.77 to €6.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Circle SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
The market capitalisation of Circle SpA is €70.2M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Circle SpA is 3.94 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
Earnings per share at Circle SpA are €0.5000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
The net margin of Circle SpA is 13.1% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Circle SpA is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Circle SpA is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Circle SpA (CIRC)?
The operating margin of Circle SpA is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Circle SpA (CIRC)?
Revenue at Circle SpA is growing +105% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Circle SpA (CIRC)?
Earnings per share at Circle SpA are growing +14.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Circle SpA (CIRC) generate?
The free cash flow of Circle SpA is −€1.3M (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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