Circle S.p.A (CIRC) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · IT · Market cap €63.6M
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price −0.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 63% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€6.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (€2.70 to €6.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.04 – €15.20 · fair‑value band €2.70 – €6.25 · the €13.55 price screens above the €5.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Circle S.p.A (CIRC) currently trades at €13.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €5.00, implying the stock looks roughly 63.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Circle S.p.A generated revenue of €22.8M at a net margin of 9.7%. Revenue grew 104.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.2%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 26.6. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €2.70 (bear case) to €6.25 (bull case); at €13.55, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -63%, CIRC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€10.09) versus Dividend Discount (€0.5800). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Notify me when CIRC reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Circle S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides management consultancy, IT, and software solutions for the port, maritime, and logistics sectors in Italy. The company offers European affairs consultancy services comprising EU funding accelerator to develop successful applications for funding; and international consultancy services.
Full company description
Circle S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides management consultancy, IT, and software solutions for the port, maritime, and logistics sectors in Italy. The company offers European affairs consultancy services comprising EU funding accelerator to develop successful applications for funding; and international consultancy services. The company also offers Milos Global Supply Chain Visibility, a suite designed for industrial companies to ensure continuous monitoring and control of the supply chain; MasterSPED, a platform for freight forwarders and customs operators; Milos Federative and Customs Services, a set of tools and services that enables easy and up-to-date interoperability among different actors of the logistics chain and customs processes; and StarTracking, an airport-to-airport tracking solution with real-time status updates. Circle S.p.A. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Genoa, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Circle S.p.A reported revenue of €10.7M in FY2024 versus €5.3M in FY2020, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was €1.4M in FY2024.
CIRC screens 63% overvalued. Compare with International Business Machines Corporation →
Peer Group
Information Technology Services · 476 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| International Business Machines Corporation IBM | $235.92 | $143.90 | -39% |
| Accenture plc ACNN | 2,460 MXN | 250.95 MXN | -90% |
| Infosys Limited INFY | ₹1,156 | ₹1,457 | +26% |
| HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH | ₹1,204 | ₹1,230 | +2% |
| Wipro Limited WIPRO | ₹178.43 | ₹226.81 | +27% |
| Tech Mahindra Limited TECHM | ₹1,455 | ₹1,086 | -25% |
| Samsung SDS Co 018260 | 199,300 KRW | 196,390 KRW | -1% |
| Persistent Systems Limited PERSISTENT | ₹5,059 | ₹2,364 | -53% |
| Hyundai Autoever Corporation 307950 | 393,000 KRW | 133,088 KRW | -66% |
| Coforge Limited COFORGE | ₹1,541 | ₹702.84 | -54% |
Compare Circle S.p.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Technology stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Circle S.p.A (CIRC) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of CIRC?
What is the quality score of CIRC?
What is the revenue of Circle S.p.A (CIRC)?
What is the net profit margin of CIRC?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Circle S.p.A and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.