Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A stock €7.38, price €3.90, upside +89.2%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.41 – €5.75 · fair‑value band €5.54 – €9.23 · the €3.90 price screens below the €7.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A. engages in the production of milk and dairy products in Italy, Germany, and internationally. It operates through Milk Products, Dairy Products, and Other Activities segments.
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The company offers milk, cream, butter, and yogurt, as well as plant-based drinks made with soy, oats, almonds, coconut, and rice.
It provides its products under the Giglio, Polenghi, Optimus, Mukki, Centro Latte Rapallo, Tapporosso, Matese, Salerno Dairy, Cappuccino Lovers, Torre in Pietra, Fior di Salento, and Centrale del Latte di Vicenza brands.
The company was formerly known as Centrale del Latte di Torino & C. S.p.A. The company was founded in 1950 and is based in Turin, Italy. Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A. operates as a subsidiary of Newlat Food S.p.A.
Stock analysis
Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI) currently trades at €3.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.38, implying the stock looks roughly 47% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €18.76 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the €3.90 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €2.74, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €5.54 (bear) to €9.23 (bull), the price of €3.90 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A reported revenue of €351M in FY2025 versus €283M in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was €4.7M in FY2025, compounding +19.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €51.6M Micro · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) €0.3000 · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 89%, CLI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€5.54Fair Value €7.38Bull€9.23
Price €3.90 · Upside +89.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2573 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.6% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
’14
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+13.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.9% vs 16.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 3%
2025 sits 66% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −19.7% a year for the price.
Compare Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 625 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+89.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.3% · Below median
Return on assets1.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−15.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.76× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CLI
Frequently asked questions
Is Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.38 versus a price of €3.90, about +89% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CLI?
Our model-based fair value for Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A is €7.38 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €3.90.
What is the quality score of CLI?
Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €7.38 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.54, optimistic scenario €9.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €7.38, about +89% upside versus a price of €3.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €5.54, optimistic scenario €9.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €336M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by -18.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.3 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CLI use?
Our models discount Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A that is -18.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A grew +14.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -18.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (-18.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 46.48 %: that much free cash flow Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A it is €7.38 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €3.90. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CLI trades below its calculated fair value: price €3.90, fair value €7.38, a gap of about +89% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CLI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€3.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€7.38). For Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A the two are €3.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A worth?
The market values Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A at about €51.6M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €3.90; our models calculate a fair value of €7.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CLI?
Our models span a range for Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A: cautious scenario €5.54, base €7.38, optimistic €9.23 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €3.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CLI?
Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €7.38 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 14.6. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 2.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 0.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CLI from its 52-week high?
Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A trades at €3.90, about 32% below its 52-week high of €5.75 and 4% above the low of €3.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €7.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €3.90, calculated fair value €7.38 (+89%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CLI calculated?
We run Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €7.38 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A currently trades 47% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €3.90. Our model-based fair value is €7.38, about +89% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€5.54). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI) come from?
Earnings per share at Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A grew +17.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.2 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate +2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
The market capitalisation of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A is €51.6M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A is 0.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
Earnings per share at Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A are €0.3000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
The net margin of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A is 1.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
The operating margin of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
Revenue at Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A is growing −15.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI)?
Earnings per share at Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A are growing −5.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A (CLI) carry?
The net debt of Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A is €20.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026