DUG Technology Ltd (DUG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of DUG Technology Ltd stock A$1.12, price A$1.66, that is 32.5% below the price, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.3650 – A$3.23 · fair‑value band A$0.8600 – A$1.40 · the A$1.66 price screens above the A$1.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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DUG Technology Ltd, a technology company, provides hardware and software solutions for the technology and resource sectors in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Malaysia, and the United Arab Emirates. It operates through three segments: HPCaaS, Services, and Software.
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The HPCaaS segment allows clients to connect to its HPC and storage in a complete HPC environment, as well as provides software and algorithm support and development that enables clients to operate on its HPC. Its Services segment offers data loading, quality control and management, and scientific data analysis.
The Software segment provides DUG Insight, a software package for scientific processing and visualization, as well as DUG Cluster Software, algorithms for the processing of scientific data on large HPC installations.
DUG Technology Ltd was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
DUG Technology Ltd (DUG) currently trades at A$1.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.12, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$1.47 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$1.66 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.3500, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$0.8600 (bear) to A$1.40 (bull), the price of A$1.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
DUG Technology Ltd reported revenue of $88.3M in FY2025 versus $33.7M in FY2021, a compound +27.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$233M (≈ $161M) Micro · P/E ratio 83.0 · P/S ratio 2.68 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0200 · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 5.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 14.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at −33%, DUG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.8600Fair Value A$1.12BullA$1.40
Price A$1.66 · Downside -32.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0172 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+41.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−25.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−26% → 9%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.2%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.6% a year for the price and +5.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 479 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−32.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.4% · Below median
Return on assets2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)14.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)36.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)83.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.22× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.68× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)24.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA13.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)21· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is DUG Technology Ltd (DUG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.12 versus a price of A$1.66, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DUG?
Our model-based fair value for DUG Technology Ltd is A$1.12 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.66.
What is the quality score of DUG?
DUG Technology Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.12 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.8600, optimistic scenario A$1.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the DUG Technology Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.12, about 33% lower versus a price of A$1.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.8600, optimistic scenario A$1.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
DUG Technology Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $86.4M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, DUG Technology Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +8.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.1 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DUG use?
Our models discount DUG Technology Ltd at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For DUG Technology Ltd that is +8.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has DUG Technology Ltd (DUG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at DUG Technology Ltd grew +18.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +8.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of DUG Technology Ltd (DUG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into DUG Technology Ltd (+8.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.97 %: that much free cash flow DUG Technology Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For DUG Technology Ltd it is A$1.12 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$1.66. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is DUG Technology Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, DUG trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.66, fair value A$1.12, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DUG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.12). For DUG Technology Ltd the two are A$0.5400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is DUG Technology Ltd worth?
The market values DUG Technology Ltd at about A$233M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$1.66; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DUG?
Our models span a range for DUG Technology Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.8600, base A$1.12, optimistic A$1.40 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price A$1.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DUG?
DUG Technology Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 83.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.2, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 13.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
Balance-sheet figures for DUG Technology Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 5.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DUG from its 52-week high?
DUG Technology Ltd trades at A$1.66, about 32% below its 52-week high of A$2.44 and 17% above the low of A$1.42 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to DUG Technology Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is DUG Technology Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$1.66, calculated fair value A$1.12 (−33%), Quality Score 45/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DUG calculated?
We run DUG Technology Ltd through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$1.12 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. DUG Technology Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$1.66. Our model-based fair value is A$1.12, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with DUG Technology Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (45/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of DUG Technology Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
The market capitalisation of DUG Technology Ltd is A$233M (≈ $161M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of DUG Technology Ltd is 2.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
Earnings per share at DUG Technology Ltd are A$0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 83.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
The net margin of DUG Technology Ltd is 2.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of DUG Technology Ltd is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of DUG Technology Ltd is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
The operating margin of DUG Technology Ltd is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
Revenue at DUG Technology Ltd is growing +36.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at DUG Technology Ltd (DUG)?
Earnings per share at DUG Technology Ltd are growing +279% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does DUG Technology Ltd (DUG) carry?
The net debt of DUG Technology Ltd is $32.2M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 8, 2026