DexCom Inc (DXCM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of DexCom Inc stock $93.24, price $88.48, upside +5.4%, quality 83 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.
Quality 83/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +19.3 %/yr in USD)
Solidly profitable · 19.4% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Positive coverage
38% return on equity.
Fair value $93.24 · Fairly valued (+5.4%)
Mixed vs. peers(8/14)
Wide moat83/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $12.2M (6M)
Some data
Quality growth
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩AI closed-loop systems could commoditise CGM hardware🚩Abbott Libre and Lingo could erode share with longer-wear or lower-cost options🚩FDA quality issues and recalls could restrict G7 sales or raise compliance costs
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $54.84 – $162.82 · fair‑value band $54.22 – $175.77 · the $88.48 price screens below the $93.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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DexCom, Inc., a medical device company, focuses on the design, development, and commercialization of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems for the management of diabetes and metabolic health in the United States and internationally.
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The company offers Dexcom G7 and G7 15 Day, an integrated continuous glucose monitoring system; Dexcom G6, a CGM system; Dexcom ONE+ to replace fingerstick blood glucose testing for diabetes treatment decisions; Stelo, a biosensor designed for adults with prediabetes and Type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin; Dexcom Share, a remote monitoring system; and Dexcom Follow application.
It markets its products directly to endocrinologists, physicians, and diabetes educators. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock analysis
DexCom Inc (DXCM) currently trades at $88.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $93.24, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $98.41 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the $88.48 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $19.83, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $54.22 (bear) to $175.77 (bull), the price of $88.48 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 83/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
DexCom Inc reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $2.4B in FY2021, a compound +17.5%/yr. Reported net income was $836M in FY2025, compounding +40.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $34.7B Large · P/E ratio 34.8 · P/S ratio 6.79 · EPS (TTM) $2.54 · Net margin 19.4% · Return on equity 37.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2% · Operating margin 24.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 83 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 5%, DXCM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$54.22Fair Value $93.24Bull$175.77
Price $88.48 · Upside +5.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.16 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $12.2M and none bought.
SaleSadie SternEVP Chief People & Culture Off3× since Aug 27, 2026: 7,695 shares, avg. $84.38$649,304Oct 27, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMichael Jon BrownEVP Chief Legal Compliance Off8× since Mar 16, 2026: 13,600 shares, avg. $74.90$1.0MOct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleNicholas AugustinosDirector8,089 shares at $84.04$679,769Sep 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJereme M SylvainEVP, Chief Financal Officer3,638 shares at $83.27$302,936Sep 10, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKevin R SayerExecutive Chair, Director4× since May 21, 2026: 107,027 shares, avg. $77.58$8.3MAug 20, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBridgette P HellerDirector4× since Nov 12, 2025: 4,048 shares, avg. $68.60$277,673Aug 12, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMark G FolettaDirector2× since Jun 15, 2026: 8,000 shares, avg. $78.40$627,183Aug 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJon ColemanEVP, Chief Commercial Officer9,823 shares at $73.56$722,628Jun 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRichard Alexander CollinsDirector2× since Nov 10, 2025: 6,854 shares, avg. $56.82$389,410Nov 14, 202510b5-1 plan
BuyJacob Steven LeachPresident & COO18,200 shares at $55.04$1.0MNov 10, 2025
Plus 26 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +27.8% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+49.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+41.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+41.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 20%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.4% a year for the price and +6.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Clinical data shows A1C benefits for non-insulin Type 2 patients and digital tools target low awareness to reach a larger market, yet thin evidence on moat durability constrains the quality assessment.
Main risk: AI algorithms in automated insulin delivery systems could become the main source of clinical value and turn Dexcom's sensors into a commoditised hardware layer supplied to competing platforms.
Bull case: Dexcom could embed its sensors deeply into AI-driven closed-loop ecosystems and expand its data platform to capture recurring software revenue across more users and indications.
Bear case: If AI platforms from rivals dominate closed-loop value and Abbott gains further share while regulatory scrutiny persists on G7 quality, Dexcom could see its hardware margins compressed and growth limited to lower-value segments.
Dexcom continues to highlight clinical data showing clear A1C improvements for Type 2 patients not on insulin while releasing a global report that finds low awareness of CGM among those same patients. The company is also adding digital tools and partnerships to close that gap and reach a much bigger addressable market. Our models see it as undervalued, yet will broader access and awareness efforts drive adoption faster than remaining barriers slow it down?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 320 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score83 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+5.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)37.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)24.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "DexCom Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DXCM
Frequently asked questions
Is DexCom Inc (DXCM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $93.24 versus a price of $88.48, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of DXCM?
Our model-based fair value for DexCom Inc is $93.24 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $88.48.
What is the quality score of DXCM?
DexCom Inc has a Quality Score of 83/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $93.24 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $54.22, optimistic scenario $175.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the DexCom Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $93.24, about +5% upside versus a price of $88.48 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $54.22, optimistic scenario $175.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
DexCom Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, DexCom Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +20.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.3 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DXCM use?
Our models discount DexCom Inc at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.44, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For DexCom Inc that is +20.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has DexCom Inc (DXCM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at DexCom Inc grew +19.3 % a year. The price currently implies +20.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of DexCom Inc (DXCM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into DexCom Inc (+20.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.11 %: that much free cash flow DexCom Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For DexCom Inc it is $93.24 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $88.48. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is DexCom Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, DXCM trades below its calculated fair value: price $88.48, fair value $93.24, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DXCM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($88.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($93.24). For DexCom Inc the two are $4.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is DexCom Inc worth?
The market values DexCom Inc at about $34.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $88.48; our models calculate a fair value of $93.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DXCM?
Our models span a range for DexCom Inc: cautious scenario $54.22, base $93.24, optimistic $175.77 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $88.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DXCM?
DexCom Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.8 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $93.24 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 12.6, P/S 6.8, EV/EBITDA 23.4.
What is the PEG ratio of DXCM?
The PEG ratio of DexCom Inc is 1.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
Balance-sheet figures for DexCom Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 37.7%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 83/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DXCM from its 52-week high?
DexCom Inc trades at $88.48, about 4% below its 52-week high of $92.34 and 61% above the low of $54.84 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $93.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to DexCom Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Medtronic plc, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is DexCom Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $88.48, calculated fair value $93.24 (+5%), Quality Score 83/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DXCM calculated?
We run DexCom Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $93.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. DexCom Inc currently trades 5% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $88.48. Our model-based fair value is $93.24, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with DexCom Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($54.22 to $175.77). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of DexCom Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
The market capitalisation of DexCom Inc is $34.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of DexCom Inc is 6.79 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
Earnings per share at DexCom Inc are $2.54 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
The net margin of DexCom Inc is 19.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of DexCom Inc is 37.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of DexCom Inc is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
The operating margin of DexCom Inc is 24.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
Revenue at DexCom Inc is growing +11.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at DexCom Inc (DXCM)?
Earnings per share at DexCom Inc are growing +2.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does DexCom Inc (DXCM) carry?
The net debt of DexCom Inc is $472M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 3, 2026