First Solar Inc (FSLR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of First Solar Inc stock $392, price $196, upside +100.3%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs 50% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value $392.02 · Strongly undervalued (50%)
Quality 66/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +14.0 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 37.1% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers(11/14)
Wide moat86/100
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 16% above the price ($227.50).
Insiders sold $14.3M (6M)
Some data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Lower third-party volumes and reduced sales guidance🚩Customer delays from opposition, inflation and tariffs🚩US policy and tariff dependence🚩Chinese crystalline silicon oversupply🚩Perovskite tandem technology shift
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $61.40 – $318.25 · fair‑value band $227.50 – $484.66 · the $195.76 price screens below the $392.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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First Solar, Inc., a solar technology company, provides photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions in the United States, France, India, Chile, and internationally.
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The company manufactures and sells PV solar modules with thin film semiconductor technology that provides conventional crystalline silicon PV solar modules. It also designs, manufactures, and sells cadmium telluride solar modules that convert sunlight into electricity.
The company serves system developers, independent power producers, utilities, commercial and industrial companies, large corporate energy buyers, and other system owners and operators. The company was formerly known as First Solar Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to First Solar, Inc. in 2006.
First Solar, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock analysis
First Solar Inc (FSLR) currently trades at $195.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $392.02, implying the stock looks roughly 50% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $470.60 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the $195.76 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $109.26, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $227.50 (bear) to $484.66 (bull), the price of $195.76 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
First Solar Inc reported revenue of $5.2B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +34.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $21.1B Large · P/E ratio 11.3 · P/S ratio 4.21 · EPS (TTM) $17.29 · Net margin 37.1% · Return on equity 18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0% · Operating margin 44.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 86 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at 100%, FSLR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$227.50Fair Value $392.02Bull$484.66
Price $195.76 · Upside +100.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($14.68 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $14.3M and none bought.
SaleMarkus GloecklerChief Technology Officer8× since Mar 3, 2026: 15,032 shares, avg. $203.52$3.1MOct 1, 2026
SaleSamantha L. SloanEVP, Corporate Affairs5× since Mar 3, 2026: 680 shares, avg. $199.90$135,935Aug 17, 2026
SaleJason E. DymbortGeneral Counsel and Secretary6× since Mar 3, 2026: 18,295 shares, avg. $208.97$3.8MAug 11, 2026
SaleMichael KoralewskiChief Supply Chain Officer5× since Mar 3, 2026: 9,565 shares, avg. $214.79$2.1MAug 3, 2026
SalePatrick James BuehlerChief Product Officer5× since Mar 3, 2026: 5,473 shares, avg. $254.37$1.4MJun 2, 2026
SaleCaroline StockdaleChief People and Comm. Officer5× since Mar 3, 2026: 13,916 shares, avg. $256.85$3.6MMay 28, 2026
SaleMark R WidmarChief Executive Officer, Director7× since Mar 3, 2026: 39,951 shares, avg. $225.43$9.0MMay 26, 2026
SaleKuntal Kumar VermaChief Manufacturing Officer10× since Mar 3, 2026: 12,095 shares, avg. $210.87$2.6MMay 21, 2026
SaleNathan B. TheurerVP - Global Controller and CAO7× since Mar 3, 2026: 797 shares, avg. $196.69$156,762May 6, 2026
SaleAlexander R. BradleyChief Financial Officer4× since Mar 3, 2026: 20,144 shares, avg. $198.90$4.0MMay 5, 2026
Plus 3 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 21 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.4% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+49.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+38.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+38.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.28.5% vs 11.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 32%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.4% a year for the price and +10.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from differentiated thin-film technology and solid margins forms the core strength, while commoditized solar competition and limited differentiation signals remain the key weakness.
Main risk: Shifts in Section 232 tariffs, Section 45X tax credits or FEOC rules could reduce demand for its US-made modules or raise costs for international production, hitting sales volumes and margins.
Bull case: By accelerating its own perovskite development and leveraging US policy support for domestic manufacturing, First Solar could integrate next-generation tech into its thin-film platform and expand its protected US market position.
Bear case: Persistent policy volatility combined with aggressive Chinese pricing and faster perovskite adoption by competitors could erode its backlog conversion, force higher-cost US production and limit growth outside protected markets.
First Solar's third-quarter results reflected lower third-party module volumes, prompting a cut to full-year sales guidance as customers postpone purchases amid local opposition, inflation and tariff questions. The business still holds a large contracted backlog through 2030 and gains from its U.S. manufacturing base. Our models currently see it as undervalued. Will the move to more project-specific contracts deliver steadier demand at better prices, or will those near-term delays persist?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Solar · 96 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+100.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)37.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)44.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−22.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Solar median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "First Solar Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FSLR
Frequently asked questions
Is First Solar Inc (FSLR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $392.02 versus a price of $195.76, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FSLR?
Our model-based fair value for First Solar Inc is $392.02 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $195.76.
What is the quality score of FSLR?
First Solar Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $392.02 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $227.50, optimistic scenario $484.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Solar Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $392.02, about +100% upside versus a price of $195.76 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $227.50, optimistic scenario $484.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
First Solar Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, First Solar Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.0 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FSLR use?
Our models discount First Solar Inc at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For First Solar Inc that is +7.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has First Solar Inc (FSLR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at First Solar Inc grew +14.0 % a year. The price currently implies +7.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of First Solar Inc (FSLR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into First Solar Inc (+7.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.63 %: that much free cash flow First Solar Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Solar Inc it is $392.02 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $195.76. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is First Solar Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, FSLR trades below its calculated fair value: price $195.76, fair value $392.02, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FSLR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($195.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($392.02). For First Solar Inc the two are $196.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Solar Inc worth?
The market values First Solar Inc at about $21.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $195.76; our models calculate a fair value of $392.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FSLR?
Our models span a range for First Solar Inc: cautious scenario $227.50, base $392.02, optimistic $484.66 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $195.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FSLR?
First Solar Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $392.02 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 26.1. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 2.2, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
What is the PEG ratio of FSLR?
The PEG ratio of First Solar Inc is 0.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Solar Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 18.7%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FSLR from its 52-week high?
First Solar Inc trades at $195.76, about 38% below its 52-week high of $318.25 and 16% above the low of $168.15 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $392.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Solar Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Nextpower Inc, Tongwei Co, Waaree Energies Limited, Jinko Solar Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Solar Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $195.76, calculated fair value $392.02 (+100%), Quality Score 66/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FSLR calculated?
We run First Solar Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $392.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. First Solar Inc currently trades 50% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $195.76. Our model-based fair value is $392.02, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Solar Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($227.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($227.50 to $484.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of First Solar Inc (FSLR) come from?
Earnings per share at First Solar Inc grew +9.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.7 %, EBIT margin +7.6 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of First Solar Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
The market capitalisation of First Solar Inc is $21.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Solar Inc is 4.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
Earnings per share at First Solar Inc are $17.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
The net margin of First Solar Inc is 37.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Solar Inc is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Solar Inc is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
The operating margin of First Solar Inc is 44.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
Revenue at First Solar Inc is growing −22.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Solar Inc (FSLR)?
Earnings per share at First Solar Inc are growing +25.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does First Solar Inc (FSLR) hold?
First Solar Inc holds more cash than debt, $2.3B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 3, 2026