Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Main Street Capital Corporation stock $108, price $57.01, upside +89.1%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.54 – $61.74 · fair‑value band $47.59 – $185.71 · the $57.01 price screens below the $107.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Main Street Capital in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Main Street Capital is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Main Street Capital Corporation is a business development company and a small business investment company specializing in direct and indirect investments. In direct investments, the firm specializes in private equity capital to lower middle market companies.
Show moreShow less
The firm specializes in recapitalizations, loan, growth capital, mezzanine debt, corporate carveouts, family estate planning, management buyouts, refinancing, private loan, private credit solutions, senior secured term debt, unintranche term debt, subordinated debt, preferred equity, common equity, minimal or no fixed amortization, split lien term debt, industry consolidation, mature, later stage and emerging growth.
The firm makes both control and non-control equity investments. The firm also provides debt capital to middle market companies for strategic acquisitions, management buyouts, growth financings, majority and minority recapitalizations, and refinancing. The firm also makes equity co-investments.
The firm provides debt financing solutions for acquisitions, recapitalizations, and refinancing to middle market companies. The firm provides private debt and private equity capital to lower middle market companies and debt capital to middle market companies.
The firm seeks to partner with entrepreneurs, business owners and management teams and generally provides one stop financing alternatives within its lower middle market portfolio.
It prefers to invest in air freight and logistics, auto components, building products, chemicals, commercial services, computers, construction and engineering, consumer finance, consumer services, electronic equipment, energy equipment and services, financial services, health care equipment, health care providers, hotels, restaurants, and leisure, internet software and services, IT Services, machinery, oil, gas and consumable fuels, paper and forest products, professional and industrial services, manufacturing, road and rail, software, specialty retail, telecommunication, consumer discretionary, energy, materials, concrete, p
Stock analysis
Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) currently trades at $57.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $107.78, implying the stock looks roughly 47% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $182.42 per share, and 8 of the 12 models we run sit above the $57.01 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.87, and 4 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $47.59 (bear) to $185.71 (bull), the price of $57.01 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Main Street Capital Corporation reported revenue of $645M in FY2025 versus $411M in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was $493M in FY2025, compounding +10.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.2B Mid · P/E ratio 11.8 · P/S ratio 9.07 · EPS (TTM) $4.85 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 77.0% · Return on equity 14.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 89%, MAIN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$47.59Fair Value $107.78Bull$185.71
Price $57.01 · Upside +89.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.49 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $150,577, on Aug 13, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $2.4M.
SaleJesse E MorrisEVP AND COO35,000 shares at $58.55$2.0MAug 21, 2026
BuyRyan McHughVP, CAO & Assistant Treasurer2,550 shares at $59.05$150,577Aug 13, 2026
SaleJason B BeauvaisEVP, GC, SECRETARY6,830 shares at $51.73$353,316Jun 30, 2026
Plus 40 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.0%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+23.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.8% vs 9.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 81%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.2% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: High margins and cash conversion support moderate durability via its efficient BDC platform and lower middle market approach, yet thin signals on differentiation and innovation leave advantages unclear.
Main risk: Recent issuance of fixed-rate unsecured notes could raise long-term funding costs that the lower middle market portfolio returns must cover and could pressure margins and distributable income.
Bull case: The internally managed model could deliver superior selectivity and operational efficiency, enabling the company to generate portfolio returns sufficient to cover higher fixed costs while sustaining growth in distributable income.
Bear case: If portfolio yields or credit quality weaken in the competitive lower middle market, the added fixed-rate obligations could strain dividend coverage and net asset value resilience.
Main Street combines debt and equity in its lower middle market strategy while running an efficient internally managed platform and asset management business. Investment activity has slowed amid uncertainty and greater performance variance among holdings, yet the private loan pipeline now sits well above average. Will the improving private lending environment generate enough new income and NAV growth to sustain the pattern of supplemental dividends?
Compare Main Street Capital Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 588 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Below median
Fair Value upside+89.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.5% · Above median
Return on assets8.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)77.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)87.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.75× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)9.07× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.1× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Main Street Capital Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MAIN
Frequently asked questions
Is Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $107.78 versus a price of $57.01, about +89% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MAIN?
Our model-based fair value for Main Street Capital Corporation is $107.78 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $57.01.
What is the quality score of MAIN?
Main Street Capital Corporation has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $107.78 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $47.59, optimistic scenario $185.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Main Street Capital Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $107.78, about +89% upside versus a price of $57.01 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $47.59, optimistic scenario $185.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
Main Street Capital Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $578M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Main Street Capital Corporation pay a dividend?
Main Street Capital Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.34% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Main Street Capital Corporation pays a dividend of $0.765 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.3%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 8, 2026, with payment on Dec 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2007. The payout ratio is 15.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.86 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Main Street Capital Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +6.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.7 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MAIN use?
Our models discount Main Street Capital Corporation at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Main Street Capital Corporation that is +6.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Main Street Capital Corporation grew +23.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +6.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Main Street Capital Corporation (+6.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.63 %: that much free cash flow Main Street Capital Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Main Street Capital Corporation it is $107.78 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $57.01. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Main Street Capital Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, MAIN trades below its calculated fair value: price $57.01, fair value $107.78, a gap of about +89% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MAIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($57.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($107.78). For Main Street Capital Corporation the two are $50.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Main Street Capital Corporation worth?
The market values Main Street Capital Corporation at about $5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $57.01; our models calculate a fair value of $107.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MAIN?
Our models span a range for Main Street Capital Corporation: cautious scenario $47.59, base $107.78, optimistic $185.71 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $57.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MAIN?
Main Street Capital Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $107.78 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 11.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.8, P/S 9.1, EV/EBITDA 12.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MAIN?
The PEG ratio of Main Street Capital Corporation is 1.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Main Street Capital Corporation (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 14.5%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MAIN from its 52-week high?
Main Street Capital Corporation trades at $57.01, about 6% below its 52-week high of $60.88 and 19% above the low of $47.89 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $107.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Main Street Capital Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Main Street Capital Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $57.01, calculated fair value $107.78 (+89%), Quality Score 59/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MAIN calculated?
We run Main Street Capital Corporation through 12 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $107.78 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Main Street Capital Corporation currently trades 47% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $57.01. Our model-based fair value is $107.78, about +89% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Main Street Capital Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($47.59 to $185.71). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) come from?
Earnings per share at Main Street Capital Corporation grew +9.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.7 %, EBIT margin +1.7 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Main Street Capital Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
The market capitalisation of Main Street Capital Corporation is $5.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Main Street Capital Corporation is 9.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
Earnings per share at Main Street Capital Corporation are $4.85 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
The dividend yield of Main Street Capital Corporation is 1.3% (payout 15.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
The net margin of Main Street Capital Corporation is 77.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Main Street Capital Corporation is 14.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Main Street Capital Corporation is 9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
The operating margin of Main Street Capital Corporation is 87.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
Revenue at Main Street Capital Corporation is growing +1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)?
Earnings per share at Main Street Capital Corporation are growing −9.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) carry?
The net debt of Main Street Capital Corporation is $2.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Main Street Capital Corporation in the live analysis
One click puts Main Street Capital Corporation on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 8, 2026