Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $4.9B
Main Street Capital Corporation
MAIN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price +15.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($56.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.00 – $62.96 · fair‑value band $33.81 – $56.34 · the $58.94 price screens above the $45.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) currently trades at $58.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.07, implying the stock looks roughly 23.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Main Street Capital Corporation generated revenue of $569M at a net margin of 74.9%. Revenue grew 2.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.4%. Net debt stands at $2.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $33.81 (bear case) to $56.34 (bull case); at $58.94, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -24%, MAIN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based ($115.24) versus Asset-Based ($21.57). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Main Street Capital Corporation is a business development company and a small business investment company specializing in direct and indirect investments. In direct investments, the firm specializes in private equity capital to lower middle market companies.
Full company description
Main Street Capital Corporation is a business development company and a small business investment company specializing in direct and indirect investments. In direct investments, the firm specializes in private equity capital to lower middle market companies. The firm specializes in recapitalizations, loan, growth capital, mezzanine debt, corporate carveouts, family estate planning, management buyouts, refinancing, private loan, private credit solutions, senior secured term debt, unintranche term debt, subordinated debt, preferred equity, common equity, minimal or no fixed amortization, split lien term debt, industry consolidation, mature, later stage and emerging growth. The firm makes both control and non-control equity investments. The firm also provides debt capital to middle market companies for strategic acquisitions, management buyouts, growth financings, majority and minority recapitalizations, and refinancing. The firm also makes equity co-investments. The firm provides debt financing solutions for acquisitions, recapitalizations, and refinancing to middle market companies. The firm provides private debt and private equity capital to lower middle market companies and debt capital to middle market companies. The firm seeks to partner with entrepreneurs, business owners and management teams and generally provides one stop financing alternatives within its lower middle market portfolio. It prefers to invest in air freight and logistics, auto components, building products, chemicals, commercial services, computers, construction and engineering, consumer finance, consumer services, electronic equipment, energy equipment and services, financial services, health care equipment, health care providers, hotels, restaurants, and leisure, internet software and services, IT Services, machinery, oil, gas and consumable fuels, paper and forest products, professional and industrial services, manufacturing, road and rail, software, specialty retail, telecommunication, consumer discretionary, energy, materials, concrete, p
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Main Street Capital Corporation reported revenue of $645M in FY2025 versus $411M in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was $493M in FY2025, compounding +10.5%/yr from FY2021.
MAIN screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Fondul Proprietatea SA →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Main Street Capital Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Main Street projects Q3 2026 DNII before taxes of at least $0.97 per share while planning Fund III launch
- Main Street Capital Corp (MAIN) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record NAV and Strong ROE ...
- Main Street Capital Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on Higher Expenses
Peer Group
Asset Management · 973 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fondul Proprietatea SA FP | $0.0420 | $0.0800 | +90% |
| BlackRock, Inc BLK | $1,136 | $465.75 | -59% |
| Blackstone Inc BX | $124.56 | $16.35 | -87% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 423.70 | kr 847.40 | +100% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$62.45 | C$10.12 | -84% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $100.94 | $44.88 | -56% |
| AB Industrivärden INDUA | kr 532.50 | kr 1,065 | +100% |
| Jio Financial Services Limited JIOFIN | ₹242.98 | ₹40.19 | -83% |
| Hedef Holding HEDEF | 267.25 TRY | 320.98 TRY | +20% |
| Bajaj Holdings BAJAJHLDNG | ₹10,398 | ₹9,202 | -12% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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