M Food S.A. (MFD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of M Food S.A. stock PLN 4.96, price PLN 3.48, upside +42.5%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.5100 PLN – 7.40 PLN · fair‑value band 4.10 PLN – 6.61 PLN · the 3.48 PLN price screens below the 4.96 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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M Food S.A. provides honey and bee products in Poland and internationally. It produces and sells raw materials and bee products, such as honey, meads, and apiculture products. The company was formerly known as M Development Spólka Akcyjna and changed its name to M Food S.A. in November 2014.
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The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Lódz, Poland. M Food S.A. operates as a subsidiary of APJ TRUST Sp. z o.o.
Stock analysis
M Food S.A. (MFD) currently trades at 3.48 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.96 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 30% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 14.05 PLN per share, and 18 of the 22 models we run sit above the 3.48 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 2.36 PLN, and 4 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 4.10 PLN (bear) to 6.61 PLN (bull), the price of 3.48 PLN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
M Food S.A. reported revenue of 112M PLN in FY2025 versus 189M PLN in FY2021, a compound −12.3%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4M PLN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 34.5M PLN (≈ $8.8M) Micro · P/E ratio 4.8 · P/S ratio 0.30 · EPS (TTM) 0.7300 PLN · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 490% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 43%, MFD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear4.10 PLNFair Value 4.96 PLNBull6.61 PLN
Price 3.48 PLN · Upside +42.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.6260 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−27.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 4%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 625 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside+42.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.7% · Below median
Return on assets1.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)6.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.1% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.96 PLN versus a price of 3.48 PLN, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MFD?
Our model-based fair value for M Food S.A. is 4.96 PLN (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3.48 PLN.
What is the quality score of MFD?
M Food S.A. has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for M Food S.A. (MFD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4.96 PLN (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4.10 PLN, optimistic scenario 6.61 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the M Food S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4.96 PLN, about +43% upside versus a price of 3.48 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 4.10 PLN, optimistic scenario 6.61 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of M Food S.A. (MFD)?
M Food S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 113M PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into M Food S.A. (MFD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, M Food S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -18.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.4 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MFD use?
Our models discount M Food S.A. at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.04, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For M Food S.A. that is -18.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has M Food S.A. (MFD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at M Food S.A. grew -6.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -18.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of M Food S.A. (MFD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into M Food S.A. (-18.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of M Food S.A. (MFD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 34.23 %: that much free cash flow M Food S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of M Food S.A. (MFD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For M Food S.A. it is 4.96 PLN per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of 3.48 PLN. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is M Food S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, MFD trades below its calculated fair value: price 3.48 PLN, fair value 4.96 PLN, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MFD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3.48 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4.96 PLN). For M Food S.A. the two are 1.48 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is M Food S.A. worth?
The market values M Food S.A. at about 34.5M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is 3.48 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 4.96 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MFD?
Our models span a range for M Food S.A.: cautious scenario 4.10 PLN, base 4.96 PLN, optimistic 6.61 PLN per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price 3.48 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MFD?
M Food S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.8 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 4.96 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of M Food S.A. (MFD)?
Balance-sheet figures for M Food S.A. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 7.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MFD from its 52-week high?
M Food S.A. trades at 3.48 PLN, about 19% below its 52-week high of 4.30 PLN and 490% above the low of 0.5900 PLN (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4.96 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to M Food S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is M Food S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price 3.48 PLN, calculated fair value 4.96 PLN (+43%), Quality Score 62/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MFD calculated?
We run M Food S.A. through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 4.96 PLN builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. M Food S.A. currently trades 30% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of M Food S.A. (MFD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 3.48 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 4.96 PLN, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with M Food S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (4.10 PLN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of M Food S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of M Food S.A. (MFD)?
The market capitalisation of M Food S.A. is 34.5M PLN (≈ $8.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of M Food S.A. (MFD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of M Food S.A. is 0.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of M Food S.A. (MFD)?
Earnings per share at M Food S.A. are 0.7300 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of M Food S.A. (MFD)?
The net margin of M Food S.A. is 6.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of M Food S.A. (MFD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of M Food S.A. is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of M Food S.A. (MFD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of M Food S.A. is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of M Food S.A. (MFD)?
The operating margin of M Food S.A. is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at M Food S.A. (MFD)?
Revenue at M Food S.A. is growing +8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does M Food S.A. (MFD) carry?
The net debt of M Food S.A. is 20.3M PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 4, 2026