Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mayfield Childcare Ltd A$0.15, price A$0.12, upside +27.9%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0960 – A$1.49 · fair‑value band A$0.0860 – A$0.2672 · the A$0.1150 price screens below the A$0.1471 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Mayfield Childcare Limited provides childcare services in Australia. It owns and operates long day care centers; and offers childcare and early education services. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Hawthorn, Australia.
Stock analysis
Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD) currently trades at A$0.1150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1471, implying the stock looks roughly 21.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$0.5900 per share, and 13 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$0.1150 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.3100, and 0 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.0860 (bear) to A$0.2672 (bull), the price of A$0.1150 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mayfield Childcare Ltd reported revenue of A$91.4M in FY2025 versus A$39.7M in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$21.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$13.6M (≈ $9.6M) · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.2800 · Net margin −23.4% · Return on equity −37.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% · Operating margin 5.4% · Revenue (TTM) A$91.6M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 28%, MFD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0860Fair Value A$0.1471Bull A$0.2672
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.0% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.3% (2020) → 2.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Personal Services · 41 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+28% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−23% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Personal Services median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.20× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1471 versus a price of A$0.1150, about +28% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MFD?
Our model-based fair value for Mayfield Childcare Ltd is A$0.1471 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1150.
What is the quality score of MFD?
Mayfield Childcare Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1471 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0860, optimistic scenario A$0.2672. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mayfield Childcare Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1471, about +28% upside versus a price of A$0.1150 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0860, optimistic scenario A$0.2672. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
Mayfield Childcare Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$91.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mayfield Childcare Ltd it is A$0.1471 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.1150. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mayfield Childcare Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MFD trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.1150, fair value A$0.1471, a gap of about +28% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MFD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1150); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1471). For Mayfield Childcare Ltd the two are A$0.0321 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mayfield Childcare Ltd worth?
The market values Mayfield Childcare Ltd at about A$13.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1150; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1471 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MFD?
Our models span a range for Mayfield Childcare Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0860, base A$0.1471, optimistic A$0.2672 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.1150). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mayfield Childcare Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −37.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MFD from its 52-week high?
Mayfield Childcare Ltd trades at A$0.1150, about 78% below its 52-week high of A$0.5250 and 20% above the low of A$0.0960 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1471 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mayfield Childcare Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Rollins, Inc, Service Corporation, Frontdoor, Inc, H&R Block, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mayfield Childcare Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.1150, calculated fair value A$0.1471 (+28%), Quality Score 36/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MFD calculated?
We run Mayfield Childcare Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1471, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mayfield Childcare Ltd currently trades 28 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.1150. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1471, about +28% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mayfield Childcare Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$0.0860 to A$0.2672). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Mayfield Childcare Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
The market capitalisation of Mayfield Childcare Ltd is A$13.6M (≈ $9.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mayfield Childcare Ltd is 0.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
Earnings per share at Mayfield Childcare Ltd are A$−0.2800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
The net margin of Mayfield Childcare Ltd is −23.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mayfield Childcare Ltd is −37.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mayfield Childcare Ltd is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
The operating margin of Mayfield Childcare Ltd is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
Revenue at Mayfield Childcare Ltd is growing −3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
Earnings per share at Mayfield Childcare Ltd are growing −57.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD) generate?
The free cash flow of Mayfield Childcare Ltd is A$8.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD) carry?
The net debt of Mayfield Childcare Ltd is A$303M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 34.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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