Mayfield Childcare Limited (MFD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$13.6M
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price −31.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (A$0.0717 to A$0.2526). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1300 – A$1.49 · fair‑value band A$0.0717 – A$0.2526 · the A$0.1300 price screens above the A$0.1190 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Mayfield Childcare Limited (MFD) currently trades at A$0.1300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1190, implying the stock looks roughly 8.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mayfield Childcare Limited generated revenue of A$91.6M at a net margin of -23.4%. Revenue declined 3.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -37.6%. Net debt stands at A$303M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0717 (bear case) to A$0.2526 (bull case); at A$0.1300, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -8%, MFD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$1.94) versus Earnings-Based (A$0.2400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mayfield Childcare Limited provides childcare services in Australia. It owns and operates long day care centers; and offers childcare and early education services. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Hawthorn, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mayfield Childcare Limited reported revenue of A$91.4M in FY2025 versus A$39.7M in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$21.4M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Personal Services · 42 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Personal Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 55/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Personal Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rollins, Inc ROL | $44.47 | $21.11 | -53% |
| Service Corporation SCI | $78.72 | $39.27 | -50% |
| Frontdoor, Inc FTDR | $75.69 | $75.55 | -0% |
| H&R Block, Inc HRB | $41.14 | $78.83 | +92% |
| Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc BFAM | $73.99 | $62.41 | -16% |
| Fu Shou Yuan International Group 1448 | HK$2.64 | HK$4.20 | +59% |
| Lungyen Life Service Corporation 5530 | 48.60 TWD | 31.33 TWD | -36% |
| Carriage Services, Inc CSV | $38.29 | $26.63 | -30% |
| Musti Group MUSTI | €14.35 | €14.08 | -2% |
| Uniao Pet Participacoes S.A AUAU3 | R$3.08 | R$1.37 | -56% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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