Savencia SA (SAVE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Savencia SA stock €103, price €56.80, upside +82.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €45.92 – €74.20 · fair‑value band €77.52 – €129.20 · the €56.80 price screens below the €103.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Savencia SA produces, distributes, and markets dairy and cheese products in France, the Rest of Europe, and internationally. The company offers cheese, butter, creams, and dairy ingredients and nutritional solutions for the retail market and food services market.
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It offers its products under the Caprice des Dieux, Saint Albray, Le Rustique, C"ur de Lion, blue chesses, such as Saint Agur, Bresse Bleu, and PDO Roquefort Papillon; fresh cheeses, such as St-Morêt, Tartare, Carré Frais, Apérivrais; goat cheese, including Chavroux, Saint-Loup, RichesMonts raclette, Géramont, Saint Albray, Fol Epi, Bresso, Milkana, Brunch, Île-de-France, Milkaut, Santa Rosa, Delaco, Kral Syru, Lucina, Medve, Alouette, Rogue Creamery, Polenghi, Corman, and Elle & Vire brands.
The company was formerly known as Bongrain SA and changed its name to Savencia SA in April 2015. Savencia SA was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Viroflay, France. Savencia SA is a subsidiary of Savencia Holding.
Stock analysis
Savencia SA (SAVE) currently trades at €56.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €103.36, implying the stock looks roughly 45% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €143.32 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the €56.80 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €38.31, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €77.52 (bear) to €129.20 (bull), the price of €56.80 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Savencia SA reported revenue of €7.0B in FY2025 versus €5.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was €74.7M in FY2025, compounding −2.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €881M Small · P/E ratio 9.9 · P/S ratio 0.13 · EPS (TTM) €5.71 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 82%, SAVE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€77.52Fair Value €103.36Bull€129.20
Price €56.80 · Upside +82.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€3.76 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF€96.37€123.41€158.0682
Growth DCF€97.94€122.79€153.2780
Owner Earnings€61.09€75.14€93.1578
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF€96.37€123.41€158.0682
Owner Earnings€61.09€75.14€93.1578
5Y Revenue Exit€116.45€168.32€232.2773
5Y EBITDA Exit€198.01€312.68€441.2475
5Y P/E Exit€100.04€139.26€178.0072
10Y Revenue Exit€104.57€147.37€200.2967
10Y EBITDA Exit€155.47€239.11€343.1668
10Y P/E Exit€97.82€128.91€163.1965
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd€39.38€90.02€115.4265
PEG = 1.0€33.22€47.45€61.6957
EPV€96.70€107.44€116.5274
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM€25.81€40.22€54.9668
DDM Multi-Stage€25.81€36.39€47.0767
Multiples
P/E Multiple€91.20€121.60€152.0063
P/S Multiple€73.83€98.44€123.0558
P/B Multiple€57.74€76.99€96.2455
EV/EBIT€104.96€158.37€211.7765
EV/EBITDA€222.87€315.57€408.2867
EV/Revenue€59.10€108.10€157.1152
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)€44.42€59.53€88.8554
Growth DCF
Growth DCF€97.94€122.79€153.2780
Economic Profit
Residual Income€95.27€93.90€96.6176
ROIC Compounder€96.70€107.44€116.5272
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E€68.49€97.85€127.2067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.3% vs 3.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 661 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside+82.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.3% · Below median
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)9.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.52× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.13× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.8× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Savencia SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAVE.PA
Frequently asked questions
Is Savencia SA (SAVE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €103.36 versus a price of €56.80, about +82% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SAVE?
Our model-based fair value for Savencia SA is €103.36 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €56.80.
What is the quality score of SAVE?
Savencia SA has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Savencia SA (SAVE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €103.36 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €77.52, optimistic scenario €129.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Savencia SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €103.36, about +82% upside versus a price of €56.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €77.52, optimistic scenario €129.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Savencia SA (SAVE)?
Savencia SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €7.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Savencia SA pay a dividend?
Savencia SA currently shows a dividend yield of 2.46% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Savencia SA (SAVE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Savencia SA pays a dividend of €1.40 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.5%. The last ex-dividend date was May 18, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 24.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.29 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Savencia SA (SAVE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Savencia SA would have to grow free cash flow by +13.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAVE use?
Our models discount Savencia SA at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Savencia SA that is +13.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Savencia SA (SAVE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Savencia SA grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +13.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Savencia SA (SAVE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Savencia SA (+13.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Savencia SA (SAVE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.75 %: that much free cash flow Savencia SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Savencia SA (SAVE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Savencia SA it is €103.36 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of €56.80. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Savencia SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, SAVE trades below its calculated fair value: price €56.80, fair value €103.36, a gap of about +82% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAVE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€56.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€103.36). For Savencia SA the two are €46.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Savencia SA worth?
The market values Savencia SA at about €881M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is €56.80; our models calculate a fair value of €103.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAVE?
Our models span a range for Savencia SA: cautious scenario €77.52, base €103.36, optimistic €129.20 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price €56.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SAVE?
Savencia SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.9 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €103.36 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 11.1. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 1.5.
What is the PEG ratio of SAVE?
The PEG ratio of Savencia SA is 0.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 12, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Savencia SA (SAVE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Savencia SA (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAVE from its 52-week high?
Savencia SA trades at €56.80, about 23% below its 52-week high of €74.20 and 4% above the low of €54.40 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €103.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Savencia SA?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Savencia SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price €56.80, calculated fair value €103.36 (+82%), Quality Score 44/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAVE calculated?
We run Savencia SA through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €103.36 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. Savencia SA currently trades 45% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Savencia SA (SAVE)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was €56.80. Our model-based fair value is €103.36, about +82% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Savencia SA right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€77.52). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Where does the earnings growth of Savencia SA (SAVE) come from?
Earnings per share at Savencia SA grew +4.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Savencia SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Savencia SA (SAVE)?
The market capitalisation of Savencia SA is €881M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Savencia SA (SAVE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Savencia SA is 0.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Savencia SA (SAVE)?
Earnings per share at Savencia SA are €5.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Savencia SA (SAVE)?
The dividend yield of Savencia SA is 2.5% (payout 24.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Savencia SA (SAVE)?
The net margin of Savencia SA is 1.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Savencia SA (SAVE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Savencia SA is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Savencia SA (SAVE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Savencia SA is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Savencia SA (SAVE)?
The operating margin of Savencia SA is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Savencia SA (SAVE)?
Revenue at Savencia SA is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Savencia SA (SAVE)?
Earnings per share at Savencia SA are growing −0.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Savencia SA (SAVE) carry?
The net debt of Savencia SA is €713M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 12, 2026