Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC stock VND 50,068, price VND 57,800, that is 13.4% below the price, quality 77 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 46,717 VND – 73,193 VND · fair‑value band 35,277 VND – 67,124 VND · the 57,800 VND price screens above the 50,068 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company provides milk and dairy products in Vietnam and internationally.
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The company processes, manufactures, and distributes milk cake, soya and fresh milk, refreshment drinks, bottled and powdered milk, nutritious powder, and other milk products; and products for pregnant and infant, baby food, spoon yogurt, yoghurt and juicy milk drink, condensed and plant-based milk, ice cream, sugar, and cheese products, as well as nutritional products for adult.
It is also involved in trading of food technology, spare parts, equipment, materials, and chemicals; trading in real estate properties, warehouses, and yards; owning or leasing land use rights; provision of internal transportation by cars for manufacturing and consuming company's products; manufacture, sale, and distribution of beverages, grocery and processing food, and roasted-ground-filtered and instant coffee; and manufacture and sale of plastic packaging products.
In addition, the company engages in the provision of healthcare clinic services; cattle raising and cultivation activities; and retail sale of milk and products from milk, bread, jam, candy, and products processed from cereal, flour, starch, and other food.
Further, it processes beef products; sugar producing and refining activity; livestock raising and agricultural products trading; and manufactures, raises, processes, and trades in cattle and poultry products.
The company was formerly known as Vietnam Milk Company and changed its name to Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company in November 2003. Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Stock analysis
Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM) currently trades at 57,800 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 50,068 VND, 13% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 74,648 VND per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the 57,800 VND price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 6,524 VND, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 35,277 VND (bear) to 67,124 VND (bull), the price of 57,800 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Vietnam Dairy Products JSC reported revenue of 63.6T VND in FY2025 versus 60.9T VND in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was 9.4T VND in FY2025, compounding −2.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 121T VND (≈ $4.7B) Mid · P/E ratio 11.5 · P/S ratio 1.72 · EPS (TTM) 5,031 VND · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 16.2% · Return on equity 30.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 80 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −13%, VNM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear35,277 VNDFair Value 50,068 VNDBull67,124 VND
Price 57,800 VND · Downside -13.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (2,719 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
’19
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 17%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.9% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Solid margins and ROE point to brand strength in domestic dairy, yet scarce external signals limit visibility into intangibles and moat durability beyond the home market.
Main risk: Failure of the international and higher-value segments to generate sufficient incremental profit would hit returns on the recent investments in exports, premium lines and own retail.
Vinamilk’s export revenue rose 39 percent in the first half while the domestic business grew more slowly. The company targets 15 percent export growth for the full year alongside a push into premium products and its own retail network. Will the international and higher-value segments deliver enough incremental profit to justify the scale of recent investments?
Compare Vietnam Dairy Products JSC with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 627 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−13.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)30.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets17.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)16.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)17.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B3.94× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.72× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)17.5× · Pricier than median
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Is Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 50,068 VND versus a price of 57,800 VND, about 13% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VNM?
Our model-based fair value for Vietnam Dairy Products JSC is 50,068 VND (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 57,800 VND.
What is the quality score of VNM?
Vietnam Dairy Products JSC has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 50,068 VND (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 35,277 VND, optimistic scenario 67,124 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vietnam Dairy Products JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 50,068 VND, about 13% lower versus a price of 57,800 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 35,277 VND, optimistic scenario 67,124 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
Vietnam Dairy Products JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 70.4T VND (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Vietnam Dairy Products JSC pay a dividend?
Vietnam Dairy Products JSC currently shows a dividend yield of 3.20% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Vietnam Dairy Products JSC pays a dividend of 1,850 VND per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.2%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 11, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2008. The payout ratio is 36.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.79 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vietnam Dairy Products JSC would have to grow free cash flow by +13.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.3 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VNM use?
Our models discount Vietnam Dairy Products JSC at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vietnam Dairy Products JSC that is +13.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vietnam Dairy Products JSC grew +1.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +13.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (+13.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.72 %: that much free cash flow Vietnam Dairy Products JSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vietnam Dairy Products JSC it is 50,068 VND per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of 57,800 VND. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Vietnam Dairy Products JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, VNM trades above its calculated fair value: price 57,800 VND, fair value 50,068 VND, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VNM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (57,800 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (50,068 VND). For Vietnam Dairy Products JSC the two are 7,732 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vietnam Dairy Products JSC worth?
The market values Vietnam Dairy Products JSC at about 121T VND (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is 57,800 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 50,068 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VNM?
Our models span a range for Vietnam Dairy Products JSC: cautious scenario 35,277 VND, base 50,068 VND, optimistic 67,124 VND per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price 57,800 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VNM?
Vietnam Dairy Products JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.5 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 50,068 VND is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings: 16.5. Other multiples: P/B 3.9, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 7.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 30.0%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VNM from its 52-week high?
Vietnam Dairy Products JSC trades at 57,800 VND, about 19% below its 52-week high of 71,071 VND and 5% above the low of 54,800 VND (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 50,068 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vietnam Dairy Products JSC?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vietnam Dairy Products JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price 57,800 VND, calculated fair value 50,068 VND (−13%), Quality Score 77/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VNM calculated?
We run Vietnam Dairy Products JSC through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 50,068 VND builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Vietnam Dairy Products JSC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 57,800 VND. Our model-based fair value is 50,068 VND, about 13% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vietnam Dairy Products JSC right now?
A fairly wide model range (35,277 VND to 67,124 VND) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC
How large is the market capitalisation of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
The market capitalisation of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC is 121T VND (≈ $4.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC is 1.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
Earnings per share at Vietnam Dairy Products JSC are 5,031 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
The dividend yield of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC is 3.2% (payout 36.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
The net margin of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC is 16.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC is 30.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC is 20.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
The operating margin of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
Revenue at Vietnam Dairy Products JSC is growing +8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM)?
Earnings per share at Vietnam Dairy Products JSC are growing +16.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM) carry?
The net debt of Vietnam Dairy Products JSC is 7.7T VND (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026