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STOCK COMPARISON

Alibaba Group Holding vs McDonald’s: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) and McDonald’s (MCD) compare, as of Oct 5, 2026.

As of Oct 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Alibaba Group Holding as the more attractively valued of the two: Alibaba Group Holding trades at $106 versus a fair value of $120 (+13.3%), while McDonald’s trades at $232 versus $163 (−29.8%).
Alibaba Group Holding
BABA · USD · Consumer Discretionary
+13.3%
upside to fair value
undervalued
Price$106
Fair Value$120
Quality48/100
McDonald’s
MCD · USD · Consumer Discretionary
−29.8%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$232
Fair Value$163
Quality69/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.

betterweakerfor reference, not scored

Alibaba Group HoldingMcDonald’s
Valuation
25.1×P/E (TTM)18.8×
1.7×Forward P/E16.7×
n/aMedian P/E at FY-end (10 FY, ex one-offs where documented)25.5×
n/aP/S (TTM)5.97×
n/aP/BNegative equity
n/aEV/EBITDA13.7×
0.54×PEG2.06×
+13.3%Fair value upside−29.8%
0.9%Dividend yield3.2%
$7.24Dividend per share$7.35
Profitability
7.3%Operating margin46.5%
0.79×EBIT margin trend (5Y)1.21×
6.4%Return on equityNegative equity
1.6%Return on assets13.3%
Growth
8.6%Revenue growth (YoY)3.7%
5.6%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)5.1%
7.4%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)7.0%
−3.8%Value creation/yr+11.9%
Balance & size
6.1×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)7.8×
0.22×Debt / equityNegative equity
$275BMarket cap$165B
expensiveGrowth qualityhealthy
McDonald’s, median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 25.5.
Forward P/E: price divided by the analyst consensus for the first fiscal year that has not started yet. The current year carries special items from quarters already reported.

McDonald’s leads: 4 to 8 metric wins.

n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Alibaba Group Holdingof which business quality 47 · market factors 35 McDonald’sof which business quality 64 · market factors 39
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
41
64
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
30
46
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
13
76
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
52
53
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
76
57
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
71
95
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
27
20
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
6
6
Net IssuanceShare count: buybacks or dilution?
92
88

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyAlibaba Group HoldingPrice $106McDonald’sPrice $232
DCF Models−31.3%below the price$72.69−40.7%below the price$138
Earnings-Based+91.5%above the price$203−55.8%below the price$103
Dividend Discount−63.5%below the price$38.66−57.4%below the price$98.79
Multiples−30.5%below the price$73.52−2.6%close to the price$226
Asset-Based−59.9%below the price$42.48n/a
Growth DCFn/a−67.0%below the price$76.46
Economic Profit−54.1%below the price$48.61−50.9%below the price$114
Growth Earnings+157.7%above the price$273−9.5%close to the price$210
Minimum−63.5%below the price$38.66−67.0%below the price$76.46
Maximum+157.7%above the price$273−2.6%close to the price$226
Median−31.3%below the price$72.69−50.9%below the price$114
Geometric mean−23.1%below the price$81.36−44.6%below the price$128

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Alibaba Group Holding: 12 of 17 models see the stock below the current price.

McDonald’s: 19 of 21 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.

Alibaba Group Holding
Price $106
Fair Value $120
Bear $99.58Bull $170
McDonald’s
Price $232
Fair Value $163
Bear $91.85Bull $252

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Alibaba Group Holding · Consumer Discretionary

Quality score48 · below median
Fair value upside+13.3% · above median

McDonald’s · Consumer Discretionary

Quality score69 · Top 25%
Fair value upside−29.8% · below median

Bottom line

As of Oct 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Alibaba Group Holding as the more attractively valued of the two: Alibaba Group Holding trades at $106 versus a fair value of $120 (+13.3%), while McDonald’s trades at $232 versus $163 (−29.8%).

McDonald’s has the higher quality score (69/100).

Open Alibaba Group Holding live analysis →

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.