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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd stock $120, price $108, upside +11.5%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical US · Based in China

Thin data Nov 5, 2026

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

BABA · US

Undervalued, but in a downtrend

The stock costs 10% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $120.46 · Undervalued (10%)

Low debt

Quality 50/100

Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.4 %/yr in USD)

Thin margins · 7.0% net margin (TTM)

1.0% dividend yield · Token dividend

Mixed vs. peers (5/11)

Profit last quarter 79% below a year ago.

Negative free cash flow

Narrow moat 44/100

Negative coverage

Thin data

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Fresh regulatory pressure on product quality and safety standards🚩Agentic AI could bypass e-commerce platforms🚩Pinduoduo's social low-price model erodes share🚩US military-civil fusion designation restricts access

17 models, one by oneBear $100.03 to bull $170.95 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 50/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $59.47 – $187.66 · fair‑value band $100.03 – $170.95 · the $108.07 price screens below the $120.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

Show moreShow less

It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and All Others segments.

The Alibaba China E-commerce Group segment operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Taobao Instant Commerce, a local services and on-demand delivery platform; 1688.com, a domestic wholesale marketplace; and Xianyu, a consumer-to-consumer community and marketplace for idle goods.

Its Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment includes AliExpress, a global e-commerce platform; Trendyol, an e-commerce platform in Turkey; Lazada, an e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia; Daraz, an e-commerce platform in South Asia, primarily in Pakistan and Bangladesh; and Alibaba.com, an integrated international online wholesale marketplace.

The Cloud Intelligence Group segment offers a suite of cloud services based on infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and model-as-a-service.

Its All Others segment comprises Amap, a provider of mobile digital maps, navigation, and real-time traffic information in China; Cainiao, which provides logistics solutions; Youku, an online long-form video platform in China; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Alibaba Health, a pharmaceutical and healthcare services platform.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, China.

Stock analysis

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) currently trades at $108.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $120.46, implying the stock looks roughly 10% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $274.30 per share, and 6 of the 17 models we run sit above the $108.07 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $24.32, and 11 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $100.03 (bear) to $170.95 (bull), the price of $108.07 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd reported revenue of 1.0T CNY in FY2026 versus 853B CNY in FY2022, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was 104B CNY in FY2026, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $260B Mega · P/E ratio 26.2 · P/S ratio 2.65 · EPS (TTM) $4.13 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 11%, BABA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $100.03 Fair Value $120.46 Bull $170.95

Price $108.07 · Upside +11.5%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.86 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

Residual Income $58.22 $66.92 $94.97 76

EPV $31.89 $38.85 $45.24 74

ROIC Compounder $31.89 $38.85 $45.24 72

All 17 models by family

DCF Models

Owner Earnings $7.67 $24.32 $64.53 66

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $42.49 $296.31 $415.83 63

Lynch FV $142.67 $203.82 $264.97 61

PEG = 1.0 $142.67 $203.82 $264.97 57

EPV $31.89 $38.85 $45.24 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $21.32 $51.62 $100.84 64

DDM Multi-Stage $21.32 $39.67 $52.91 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple $103.10 $137.46 $171.83 63

P/S Multiple $55.57 $74.09 $92.62 58

P/B Multiple $143.59 $191.46 $239.32 55

EV/EBIT $43.39 $59.59 $75.78 66

EV/EBITDA $52.77 $72.10 $91.42 67

EV/Revenue $27.56 $41.59 $55.63 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $23.93 $32.07 $47.86 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income $58.22 $66.92 $94.97 76

ROIC Compounder $31.89 $38.85 $45.24 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $192.01 $274.30 $356.59 67

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 41

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 30

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 13

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 52

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 76

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 72

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentum 13

Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 8

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 92

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 43/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

+2.7%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+5.6%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+7.4%

Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +26.0% a year

Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+41.7%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

−3.7%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−4.7%

Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.7% vs 9.8%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 14%

Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

Watch BABA, get fair value alerts →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Negative

Recent news coverage is more negative than average.

Alibaba (BABA) Will Power Dakar 2026 With Cloud And AI Yahoo Finance · Nov 2, 2026
Alibaba (BABA) Registers a Bigger Fall Than the Market: Important Facts to Note Yahoo Finance · Oct 29, 2026

Note from the team Oct 27, 2026

AI conclusion: Scale advantages in internet retail are offset by regulatory scrutiny in the home market and negative free cash flow despite profits.

Main risk: Autonomous AI agents might handle purchases directly and reduce human traffic on marketplaces such as Taobao and Tmall, lowering the need for Alibaba's core retail platforms.

Bull case: Alibaba could embed its own AI agents deeply into Taobao and Tmall to capture agent-driven transactions and turn the technology shift into an advantage for its platforms and cloud services.

Bear case: If agentic AI and rival models prevail, Alibaba's e-commerce operations could lose substantial relevance while heavy AI investments fail to generate sufficient returns from a shrinking core business.

Alibaba is channeling tens of billions into AI and cloud infrastructure, where related revenues continue to accelerate. Yet its core domestic e-commerce business now faces fresh regulatory pressure on product quality and safety standards. Will the upside from these AI commitments offset the constraints and slower growth in the traditional retail platform?

Join the discussion →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 98 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 50 · Below median

Fair Value upside +11.5% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (12 months) 6.4% · Below median

Return on assets 5.5% · Above median

Net margin (12 months) 7.0% · Above median

Operating margin (12 months) 7.3% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 8.6% · Below median

Dividend yield (12 months) 1.0% · Below median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.22× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 26.2× · Pricier than median

PEG 0.51× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)49 · sector 49

FUTURE (revenue growth)43 · sector 58

PAST (return on equity)25 · sector 26

HEALTH (low debt)89 · sector 92

DIVIDEND (yield)19 · sector 60

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
PDD Holdings PDD	$83.95	$251.85	+200%	vs BABA
Sea Limited SE	$75.63	$129.32	+71%	vs BABA
Prosus N.V PRX	€38.02	€51.58	+36%	vs BABA
MercadoLibre, Inc MELI	$1,530	$1,914	+25%	vs BABA
DoorDash, Inc DASH	$179.92	$201.65	+12%	vs BABA
Allegro.eu S.A ALE	59.46 PLN	64.20 PLN	+8%	vs BABA
Amazon.com, Inc AMZN	$260.21	$140.05	−46%	vs BABA
eBay Inc EBAY	$123.35	$60.00	−51%	vs BABA
Coupang, Inc CPNG	$16.42	$4.97	−70%	vs BABA
Wayfair Inc W	$113.38	$29.32	−74%	vs BABA

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Frequently asked questions

Is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $120.46 versus a price of $108.07, about +11% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of BABA?

Our model-based fair value for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is $120.46 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $108.07.

What is the quality score of BABA?

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $120.46 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $100.03, optimistic scenario $170.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Alibaba Group Holding Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $120.46, about +11% upside versus a price of $108.07 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $100.03, optimistic scenario $170.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.0T (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).

Does Alibaba Group Holding Ltd pay a dividend?

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.97% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alibaba Group Holding Ltd it is $120.46 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $108.07. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Nov 5, 2026, BABA trades below its calculated fair value: price $108.07, fair value $120.46, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of BABA?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($108.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($120.46). For Alibaba Group Holding Ltd the two are $12.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd worth?

The market values Alibaba Group Holding Ltd at about $260B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $108.07; our models calculate a fair value of $120.46 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BABA?

Our models span a range for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd: cautious scenario $100.03, base $120.46, optimistic $170.95 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $108.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of BABA?

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.2 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $120.46 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 26.3. Other multiples: PEG 0.5.

What is the PEG ratio of BABA?

The PEG ratio of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 0.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.

How solid is the balance sheet of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

Balance-sheet figures for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 6.4%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is BABA from its 52-week high?

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd trades at $108.07, about 38% below its 52-week high of $175.57 and 14% above the low of $94.81 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $120.46 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd?

From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, PDD Holdings, MercadoLibre, Inc, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $108.07, calculated fair value $120.46 (+11%), Quality Score 50/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of BABA calculated?

We run Alibaba Group Holding Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $120.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd currently trades 10% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $108.07. Our model-based fair value is $120.46, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd right now?

Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Where does the earnings growth of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) come from?

Earnings per share at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd grew +9.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +27.9 %, EBIT margin −10.9 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

The market capitalisation of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is $260B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 2.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

Earnings per share at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd are $4.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

The dividend yield of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 1.0% (payout 25.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

The net margin of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 10.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

The operating margin of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

Revenue at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is growing +8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)?

Earnings per share at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd are growing −79.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) generate?

The free cash flow of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is −$50.7B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) carry?

The net debt of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is $86.1B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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