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STOCK COMPARISON

Phillips 66 vs Valero Energy: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO) compare, as of Sep 10, 2026.

As of Sep 10, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Phillips 66 as the less overvalued of the two: Phillips 66 trades at $261 versus a fair value of $99.41 (-62%), while Valero Energy trades at $389 versus $127 (-67%).
Phillips 66
PSX · USD · Energy
-62%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$261
Fair Value$99.41
Quality61/100
Valero Energy
VLO · USD · Energy
-67%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$389
Fair Value$127
Quality66/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Phillips 66Valero Energy
Valuation
19.9×P/E (TTM)22.6×
0.59×P/S (TTM)0.78×
2.70×P/B3.88×
13.7×EV/EBITDA10.5×
1.17×PEG4.08×
−61.9%Fair value upside−67.3%
1.9%Dividend yield1.2%
$4.87Dividend per share$4.59
Profitability
1%Operating margin6%
15%Return on equity16%
4%Return on assets6%
Growth
7%Revenue growth (YoY)7%
-8.1%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-11.4%
15.7%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)13.6%
+15.2%Value creation/yr+14.5%
Balance & size
3.4×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)7.8×
0.64×Debt / equity0.41×
$79BMarket cap$92B
weakGrowth qualityweak

Phillips 66 leads: 9 to 5 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Phillips 66of which business quality 58 · market factors 93 Valero Energyof which business quality 64 · market factors 93
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
49
43
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
46
36
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
31
61
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
50
63
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
100
100
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
76
75
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
100
100
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
100
100
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
100
100

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyPhillips 66Price $261Valero EnergyPrice $389
DCF Models-78%below the price$57.02-38%below the price$240
Earnings-Based-72%below the price$72.82-73%below the price$103
Multiples-61%below the price$100-65%below the price$134
Asset-Based-81%below the price$48.62-86%below the price$53.53
Growth DCF-78%below the price$56.79-23%below the price$300
Economic Profit-76%below the price$62.40-71%below the price$113
Growth Earnings-55%below the price$119-69%below the price$119
Minimum-81%below the price$48.62-86%below the price$53.53
Maximum-55%below the price$119-23%below the price$300
Median-76%below the price$62.40-69%below the price$119
Geometric mean-73%below the price$70.34-66%below the price$133

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Phillips 66: 22 of 22 models see the stock below the current price.

Valero Energy: 24 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Phillips 66
Bear $75.88Fair Value $99.41Bull $150
$261 = current price (white tick)
Valero Energy
Bear $89.58Fair Value $127Bull $165
$389 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Phillips 66 · Energy

Quality score61 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-62% · bottom 25%

Valero Energy · Energy

Quality score66 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-67% · bottom 25%

Bottom line

As of Sep 10, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Phillips 66 as the less overvalued of the two: Phillips 66 trades at $261 versus a fair value of $99.41 (-62%), while Valero Energy trades at $389 versus $127 (-67%).

Valero Energy has the higher quality score (66/100).

See the full analysis →
Phillips 66 · Valero Energy

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.