Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Valero Energy Corporation stock $131, price $365, that is 64.1% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $51.57 – $459.78 · fair‑value band $92.38 – $170.22 · the $365.34 price screens above the $131.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally.
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It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol.
The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils.
It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brands.
The company also owns and operates renewable diesel and ethanol plants, as well as produces and sells renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat sustainable aviation fuel under the Diamond Green Diesel brand name.
In addition, it offers ethanol and various co-products, including dry distillers grains, syrup, and inedible distillers corn oil to animal feed customers. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997.
Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.
Stock analysis
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) currently trades at $365.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $131.30, 64% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $268.17 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $365.34 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $54.32, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $92.38 (bear) to $170.22 (bull), the price of $365.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2013: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2013.
Valero Energy Corporation reported revenue of $123B in FY2025 versus $114B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.3B in FY2025, compounding +26.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $107B Large · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 0.73 · EPS (TTM) $39.91 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 8.8% · Return on equity 27.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 129% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −64%, VLO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$92.38Fair Value $131.30Bull$170.22
Price $365.34 · Downside -64.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($29.88 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $5.7M and none bought.
SaleEric A FisherSVP4× since Mar 11, 2026: 31,211 shares, avg. $245.52$7.7MJun 29, 2026
SaleJason W. FraserEVP & CFO9,933 shares at $174.02$1.7MNov 21, 2025
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2013: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2013.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+9.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Per share before 2013divided by the spin-off factor 1.094
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.3% vs 1.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.3% a year for the price and −3.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Valero's refining operations gain from the completed FCC optimization that lifts yields of higher-value products, yet the business shows only thin differentiation and remains exposed to commodity swings.
Main risk: Widespread adoption of electric vehicles could reduce long-term demand for gasoline and diesel and thereby compress Valero's refining margins.
Bull case: Valero could leverage its complex refineries and feedstock flexibility to maintain strong margins while scaling profitable low-carbon fuels through its joint ventures.
Bear case: Accelerating EV adoption combined with tighter regulations could erode demand for traditional fuels and leave Valero's refining assets underutilized with limited offsetting earnings from renewables.
Valero recently completed its St. Charles FCC optimization project on schedule, increasing yields of higher-value products such as alkylate and gasoline. Record third-quarter profits highlight the refining segment's strength in the current environment, though our models see the stock as overvalued. Will this upgrade deliver enduring efficiency gains or mainly magnify benefits from short-term supply constraints?
Compare Valero Energy Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−64.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)19.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)51.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)9.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.53× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.73× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow21.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA5.4× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.63× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)26· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Valero Energy Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VLO
Frequently asked questions
Is Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $131.30 versus a price of $365.34, about 64% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VLO?
Our model-based fair value for Valero Energy Corporation is $131.30 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $365.34.
What is the quality score of VLO?
Valero Energy Corporation has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $131.30 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $92.38, optimistic scenario $170.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Valero Energy Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $131.30, about 64% lower versus a price of $365.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $92.38, optimistic scenario $170.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
Valero Energy Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $147B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Valero Energy Corporation pay a dividend?
Valero Energy Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.29% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Valero Energy Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +7.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VLO use?
Our models discount Valero Energy Corporation at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Valero Energy Corporation that is +7.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Valero Energy Corporation grew +13.6 % a year. The price currently implies +7.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Valero Energy Corporation (+7.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.68 %: that much free cash flow Valero Energy Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Valero Energy Corporation it is $131.30 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $365.34. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Valero Energy Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, VLO trades above its calculated fair value: price $365.34, fair value $131.30, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VLO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($365.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($131.30). For Valero Energy Corporation the two are $234.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Valero Energy Corporation worth?
The market values Valero Energy Corporation at about $107B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $365.34; our models calculate a fair value of $131.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VLO?
Our models span a range for Valero Energy Corporation: cautious scenario $92.38, base $131.30, optimistic $170.22 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $365.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VLO?
Valero Energy Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $131.30 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 13.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 4.5, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
What is the PEG ratio of VLO?
The PEG ratio of Valero Energy Corporation is 1.63 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Valero Energy Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 27.6%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VLO from its 52-week high?
Valero Energy Corporation trades at $365.34, about 21% below its 52-week high of $459.78 and 129% above the low of $159.58 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $131.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Valero Energy Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, Formosa Petrochemical Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Valero Energy Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $365.34, calculated fair value $131.30 (−64%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VLO calculated?
We run Valero Energy Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $131.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Valero Energy Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $365.34. Our model-based fair value is $131.30, about 64% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Valero Energy Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($170.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($92.38 to $170.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) come from?
Earnings per share at Valero Energy Corporation grew +8.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.3 %, EBIT margin −0.8 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Valero Energy Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
The market capitalisation of Valero Energy Corporation is $107B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Valero Energy Corporation is 0.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
Earnings per share at Valero Energy Corporation are $39.91 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
The dividend yield of Valero Energy Corporation is 1.3% (payout 11.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
The net margin of Valero Energy Corporation is 8.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Valero Energy Corporation is 27.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Valero Energy Corporation is 12.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
The operating margin of Valero Energy Corporation is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
Revenue at Valero Energy Corporation is growing +51.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
Earnings per share at Valero Energy Corporation are growing +577% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) carry?
The net debt of Valero Energy Corporation is $7.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026