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STOCK COMPARISON

Simon Property Group vs Welltower: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Simon Property Group (SPG) and Welltower (WELL) compare, as of Sep 4, 2026.

As of Sep 4, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Simon Property Group as the less overvalued of the two: Simon Property Group trades at $212 versus a fair value of $84.26 (-60%), while Welltower trades at $241 versus $35.57 (-85%).
Simon Property Group
SPG · USD · Real Estate
-60%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$212
Fair Value$84.26
Quality57/100
Welltower
WELL · USD · Real Estate
-85%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$241
Fair Value$35.57
Quality42/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Simon Property GroupWelltower
Valuation
14.9×P/E (TTM)112.4×
12.26×P/S (TTM)13.89×
15.65×P/B3.88×
22.2×EV/EBITDA59.4×
8.74×PEG3.62×
−60.2%Fair value upside−85.2%
4.1%Dividend yield1.2%
$8.65Dividend per share$2.96
Profitability
43%Operating margin18%
1.17×EBIT margin trend (5Y)0.21×
114%Return on equity4%
6%Return on assets1%
Growth
19%Revenue growth (YoY)38%
6.3%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)22.7%
6.7%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)18.4%
+9.9%Value creation/yr−8.9%
Balance & size
3.3×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)0.5×
5.46×Debt / equity0.46×
$82BMarket cap$163B
healthyGrowth qualitymixed

Simon Property Group leads: 11 to 5 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Simon Property Groupof which business quality 54 · market factors 62 Welltowerof which business quality 45 · market factors 80
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
59
21
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
70
51
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
77
98
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
9
50
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
35
33
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
63
81
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
56
72
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
73
92
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
83
0

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familySimon Property GroupPrice $212WelltowerPrice $241
DCF Models-54%below the price$96.96-71%below the price$70.62
Dividend Discount-32%below the price$144-81%below the price$46.81
Multiples-40%below the price$128-91%below the price$22.56
Asset-Based-95%below the price$10.76-83%below the price$39.99
Growth DCF-63%below the price$77.98-77%below the price$55.69
Economic Profit-56%below the price$92.53-83%below the price$41.32
Minimum-95%below the price$10.76-91%below the price$22.56
Maximum-32%below the price$144-71%below the price$70.62
Median-55%below the price$94.75-82%below the price$44.07
Geometric mean-66%below the price$71.94-82%below the price$43.59

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Simon Property Group: 16 of 16 models see the stock below the current price.

Welltower: 14 of 14 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Simon Property Group
Bear $61.87Fair Value $84.26Bull $159
$212 = current price (white tick)
Welltower
Bear $26.35Fair Value $35.57Bull $35.57
$241 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Simon Property Group · Real Estate

Quality score57 · above median
Fair value upside-60% · bottom 25%

Welltower · Real Estate

Quality score42 · bottom 25%
Fair value upside-85% · bottom 25%

Bottom line

As of Sep 4, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Simon Property Group as the less overvalued of the two: Simon Property Group trades at $212 versus a fair value of $84.26 (-60%), while Welltower trades at $241 versus $35.57 (-85%).

Simon Property Group has the higher quality score (57/100).

See the full analysis →
Simon Property Group · Welltower

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.