Simon Property Group (SPG) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $81.5B
Simon Property Group
SPG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +1.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($159.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($63.23 to $159.46) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $71.56 – $236.70 · fair‑value band $63.23 – $159.46 · the $222.91 price screens above the $86.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Simon Property Group (SPG) currently trades at $222.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $86.11, implying the stock looks roughly 61.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Simon Property Group generated revenue of $6.6B at a net margin of 70.6%. Revenue grew 19.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 113.6%. Net debt stands at $28.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $63.23 (bear case) to $159.46 (bull case); at $222.91, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at -61%, SPG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($127.57) versus Asset-Based ($10.76). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Simon Property Group, Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). Simon Property Group, L.P., or the Operating Partnership, is our majority-owned partnership subsidiary that owns all of our real estate properties and other assets.
Full company description
Simon Property Group, Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). Simon Property Group, L.P., or the Operating Partnership, is our majority-owned partnership subsidiary that owns all of our real estate properties and other assets. In this package, the terms Simon, we, our, or the Company refer to Simon Property Group, Inc., the Operating Partnership, and its subsidiaries. We own, develop and manage premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations, which consist primarily of malls, Premium Outlets, The Mills, and International Properties. At December 31, 2024, we owned or had an interest in 229 properties comprising 183 million square feet in North America, Asia and Europe. We also owned an 88% interest in The Taubman Realty Group, or TRG, which owns 22 regional, super-regional, and outlet malls in the U.S. and Asia. Additionally, at December 31, 2024, we had a 22.4% ownership interest in Klepierre, a publicly traded, Paris-based real estate company, which owns shopping centers in 14 European countries. Simon Property Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1960 and is based in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Simon Property Group reported revenue of $6.4B in FY2025 versus $5.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $4.6B in FY2025, compounding +19.7%/yr from FY2021.
SPG screens 61% overvalued. Compare with Realty Income Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is a Beat in Store for Simon Property Stock in Q2 Earnings?
- Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock Looks Cheap Relative To Fair Value
Peer Group
REIT - Retail · 107 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Realty Income Corporation O | $65.60 | $30.71 | -53% |
| Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW | €103.65 | €101.67 | -2% |
| Kimco Realty Corporation KIM | $26.10 | $12.60 | -52% |
| CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) C38U | 2.47 SGD | 0.9100 SGD | -63% |
| Scentre Group SCG | A$3.93 | A$3.34 | -15% |
| Regency Centers Corporation REG | $82.15 | $33.69 | -59% |
| Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 | HK$39.22 | HK$41.98 | +7% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT | $126.08 | $41.96 | -67% |
| Brixmor Property Group BRX | $32.44 | $13.18 | -59% |
| Agree Realty Corporation ADC | $79.81 | $39.16 | -51% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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