HSBC Holdings (0005) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$2.7T (≈ $340B) · ISIN GB0005405286
What is HSBC Holdings really worth?
A solid business, but trading 124% above our fair value of HK$74.41.
As of Aug 29, 2026, the fair value of HSBC Holdings is HK$74.41 per share against a price of HK$166.70, so the fair value sits 55% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 29, 2026, revised from HK$15.36 to HK$74.41 (+384.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +2.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$93.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$29.12 – HK$168.20 · fair‑value band HK$55.81 – HK$93.02 · the HK$166.70 price screens above the HK$74.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
HSBC Holdings (0005) currently trades at HK$166.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$74.41, implying the stock looks roughly 124.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$14.52 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the HK$166.70 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$12.41, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, HSBC Holdings generated revenue of HK$63.8B at a net margin of 35.0%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. Net debt stands at HK$257B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$55.81 (bear case) to HK$93.02 (bull case); at HK$166.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 92% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −55%, 0005 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$2.39 per share, which is 3.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$14.52) versus Asset-Based (HK$6.95). Highest evidence: Residual Income (69).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking.
Full company description
HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking. The Hong Kong segment is involved in the retail banking and wealth and commercial banking of HSBC Hong Kong and Hang Seng Bank. The UK segment engages in UK retail banking and wealth, as well as first direct and M&S Bank, UK Commercial Banking, and HSBC Innovation Bank. The Corporate and Institutional Banking segment is involved in transaction banking and capital markets. The International Wealth and Premier Banking segment is involved in the business comprising premier banking outside of Hong Kong and the UK, its private bank, asset management, and insurance businesses. The company was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HSBC Holdings reported revenue of $151B in FY2025 versus $73.9B in FY2021, a compound +19.5%/yr. Reported net income was $22.8B in FY2025, compounding +13.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.9 % · buybacks/dilution +0.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
0005 screens 124% overvalued. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- HSBC raises Treasury yield forecasts on more hawkish Fed outlook
- HSBC Holdings (LSE:HSBA), What Is Behind The Fresh Attention?
- HSBC Holdings (LSE:HSBA) Steps Up Covid Era Loan Default Lawsuits
- Update: Market Chatter: Barclays, HSBC, Starling Bank Pursue Covid-Era Loan Defaulters
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 48 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $358.64 | $217.97 | −39% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $62.68 | $50.87 | −19% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.55 | ¥18.21 | +73% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.86 | ¥14.44 | +84% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.96 | ¥12.94 | +86% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$283.11 | C$151.80 | −46% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥6.14 | ¥11.24 | +83% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFC | $86.69 | $79.60 | −8% |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG | $22.90 | $20.50 | −10% |
| Citigroup Inc C | $132.90 | $117.65 | −11% |
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