Yunnan Baiyao Group (000538) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · CN · Market cap 92.1B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from ¥53.69 to ¥49.10 (−8.5%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +4.2% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (¥37.47 to ¥79.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥40.69 – ¥79.57 · fair‑value band ¥37.47 – ¥79.29 · the ¥50.69 price screens above the ¥49.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Yunnan Baiyao Group (000538) currently trades at ¥50.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥49.10, implying the stock looks roughly 3.1% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Yunnan Baiyao Group generated revenue of 41.9B CNY at a net margin of 12.5%. Revenue grew 7.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 10.3B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥37.47 (bear case) to ¥79.29 (bull case); at ¥50.69, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -3%, 000538 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥65.92) versus Asset-Based (¥15.04). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.,Ltd engages in the sale of pharmaceuticals, medicinal materials, health and daily chemical products in China.
Full company description
Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.,Ltd engages in the sale of pharmaceuticals, medicinal materials, health and daily chemical products in China. The company offers health products; traditional Chinese medicine used for pain management and anti-inflammation, including the Yunnan Baiyao aerosol, Yunnan Baiyao ointment, and Yunnan Baiyao band-aid; generic drugs and natural specialty medicines in various areas, such as physical fitness, respiratory ailments, cardiovascular health, gynecology, pediatrics, and others; medical devices; tea products; and pharmaceutical supply chain service solutions. Yunnan Baiyao Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1902 and is based in Kunming, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Yunnan Baiyao Group reported revenue of ¥41.2B in FY2025 versus ¥36.4B in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥5.2B in FY2025, compounding +16.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 625 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 | ¥53.19 | ¥25.94 | -51% |
| Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA | ₹1,933 | ₹989.50 | -49% |
| Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB | ₹7,316 | ₹1,943 | -73% |
| Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM | ₹4,763 | ₹1,329 | -72% |
| PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 | 1,285 TWD | 221.01 TWD | -83% |
| Cipla Limited CIPLA | ₹1,439 | ₹1,001 | -30% |
| Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE | ₹1,151 | ₹703.32 | -39% |
| Lupin Limited LUPIN | ₹2,443 | ₹2,477 | +1% |
| Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND | ₹2,484 | ₹983.11 | -60% |
| Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY | ₹1,211 | ₹874.79 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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