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Yunnan Baiyao Group (000538) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · CN · Market cap 92.1B CNY

YB Yunnan Baiyao Group 000538 · SHE
Price¥50.69
Fair Value¥49.10
Upside-3.1%
Quality63/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 12.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.12% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Moderate moat 56/100
Evidence: High Range ¥37.47 – ¥79.29 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from ¥53.69 to ¥49.10 (−8.5%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +4.2% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥37.47 to ¥79.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥79.57 ¥40.69 Fair Value ¥49.10 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥40.69 – ¥79.57 · fair‑value band ¥37.47 – ¥79.29 · the ¥50.69 price screens above the ¥49.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Yunnan Baiyao Group (000538) currently trades at ¥50.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥49.10, implying the stock looks roughly 3.1% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Yunnan Baiyao Group generated revenue of 41.9B CNY at a net margin of 12.5%. Revenue grew 7.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 10.3B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥37.47 (bear case) to ¥79.29 (bull case); at ¥50.69, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -3%, 000538 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥36.93 ¥69.30 ¥120.16 80
Residual Income ¥21.26 ¥26.10 ¥60.34 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥33.14 ¥56.53 ¥89.03 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥37.76 ¥66.21 ¥134.86 38
Owner Earnings ¥45.00 ¥85.79 ¥163.59 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥33.14 ¥57.48 ¥91.97 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥34.43 ¥60.34 ¥94.37 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥43.63 ¥80.64 ¥125.63 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥33.45 ¥57.88 ¥98.65 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥35.29 ¥60.07 ¥100.79 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥41.57 ¥75.54 ¥128.78 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥19.64 ¥113.08 ¥157.27 54
Lynch FV ¥31.88 ¥45.55 ¥59.21 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥31.88 ¥45.55 ¥59.21 46
EPV ¥27.01 ¥30.67 ¥33.87 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥43.32 ¥57.77 ¥72.21 63
P/S Multiple ¥36.83 ¥49.10 ¥61.38 58
P/B Multiple ¥36.83 ¥49.10 ¥61.38 55
EV/EBIT ¥43.12 ¥55.81 ¥68.49 53
EV/EBITDA ¥34.50 ¥44.32 ¥54.13 54
EV/Revenue ¥30.71 ¥41.71 ¥52.70 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥11.22 ¥15.04 ¥22.44 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥36.93 ¥69.30 ¥120.16 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥33.14 ¥56.53 ¥89.03 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥21.26 ¥26.10 ¥60.34 76
ROIC Compounder ¥29.86 ¥41.08 ¥52.15 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥46.15 ¥65.92 ¥85.70 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥65.92) versus Asset-Based (¥15.04). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 41.9B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +7.0%
Net margin 12.5%
Return on equity 12.8%
Free cash flow 4.1B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 16.5
More key figures
Operating margin 18.3%
EPS (TTM) ¥2.95
Dividend yield 3.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +5.6%
Net cash 10.3B CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 91
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 60
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.,Ltd engages in the sale of pharmaceuticals, medicinal materials, health and daily chemical products in China.

Full company description

Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.,Ltd engages in the sale of pharmaceuticals, medicinal materials, health and daily chemical products in China. The company offers health products; traditional Chinese medicine used for pain management and anti-inflammation, including the Yunnan Baiyao aerosol, Yunnan Baiyao ointment, and Yunnan Baiyao band-aid; generic drugs and natural specialty medicines in various areas, such as physical fitness, respiratory ailments, cardiovascular health, gynecology, pediatrics, and others; medical devices; tea products; and pharmaceutical supply chain service solutions. Yunnan Baiyao Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1902 and is based in Kunming, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Yunnan Baiyao Group reported revenue of ¥41.2B in FY2025 versus ¥36.4B in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥5.2B in FY2025, compounding +16.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
41.2B CNY
Latest YoY
+2.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+4.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+4.7%
Avg. growth/yr (34Y)
+22.9%
Revenue +3.2%/yr
FY21 ¥36.4B
FY22 ¥36.5B
FY23 ¥39.1B
FY24 ¥40.0B
FY25 ¥41.2B
Net income +16.4%/yr
FY21 ¥2.8B
FY22 ¥3.0B
FY23 ¥4.1B
FY24 ¥4.7B
FY25 ¥5.2B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yunnan Baiyao Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000538

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 625 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −3% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.1% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.30× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.20× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 3.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 16.8× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.92× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 29 · sector 9
FUTURE 35 · sector 20
PAST 51 · sector 23
HEALTH 100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 62 · sector 35

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥53.19 ¥25.94 -51%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,933 ₹989.50 -49%
Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB ₹7,316 ₹1,943 -73%
Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM ₹4,763 ₹1,329 -72%
PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 1,285 TWD 221.01 TWD -83%
Cipla Limited CIPLA ₹1,439 ₹1,001 -30%
Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE ₹1,151 ₹703.32 -39%
Lupin Limited LUPIN ₹2,443 ₹2,477 +1%
Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND ₹2,484 ₹983.11 -60%
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY ₹1,211 ₹874.79 -28%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Yunnan Baiyao Group (000538) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥49.10 versus a price of ¥50.69, about −3% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 000538?
Our model-based fair value for Yunnan Baiyao Group is ¥49.10 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥50.69.
What is the quality score of 000538?
Yunnan Baiyao Group has a Quality Score of 63/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Yunnan Baiyao Group (000538)?
Yunnan Baiyao Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 41.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 000538?
The net profit margin of Yunnan Baiyao Group is about 12.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Yunnan Baiyao Group pay a dividend?
Yunnan Baiyao Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.26% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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