New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd ¥11.16, price ¥6.92, upside +61.3%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.95 – ¥18.37 · fair‑value band ¥5.62 – ¥20.91 · the ¥6.92 price screens below the ¥11.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and processes compound feed, concentrated feed, and concentrate supplements in China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Egypt, and internationally. The company offers pig, poultry, and fish feed products.
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New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and processes compound feed, concentrated feed, and concentrate supplements in China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Egypt, and internationally. The company offers pig, poultry, and fish feed products. It also engages in the breeding and slaughtering of pigs, as well as the processing of meat products. The company was formerly known as Sichuan New Hope Agribusiness Co., Ltd. New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.
Stock analysis
New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876) currently trades at ¥6.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.16, implying the stock looks roughly 38.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥19.92 per share, and 8 of the 9 models we run sit above the ¥6.92 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.00, and 1 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥5.62 (bear) to ¥20.91 (bull), the price of ¥6.92 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd reported revenue of 107B CNY in FY2025 versus 126B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.1%/yr. Reported net income was −1.8B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 34.3B CNY (≈ $5.1B) · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.9500 · Net margin −1.7% · Return on equity −12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.7% · Operating margin −3.6% · Revenue (TTM) 111B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 61%, 000876 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥5.62Fair Value ¥11.16Bull ¥20.91
Price ¥6.92 · Upside +61.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.1% (2020) → 1.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.7% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 634 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+61.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−3.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−3.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000876
Frequently asked questions
Is New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.16 versus a price of ¥6.92, about +61% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000876?
Our model-based fair value for New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd is ¥11.16 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥6.92.
What is the quality score of 000876?
New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥11.16 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.62, optimistic scenario ¥20.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥11.16, about +61% upside versus a price of ¥6.92 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.62, optimistic scenario ¥20.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 111B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.6 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000876 use?
Our models discount New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd that is -5.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd grew -0.6 % a year. The price currently implies -5.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (-5.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.26 %: that much free cash flow New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd it is ¥11.16 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of ¥6.92. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 000876 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥6.92, fair value ¥11.16, a gap of about +61% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000876?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥6.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥11.16). For New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd the two are ¥4.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd worth?
The market values New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd at about 34.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is ¥6.92; our models calculate a fair value of ¥11.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000876?
Our models span a range for New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥5.62, base ¥11.16, optimistic ¥20.91 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price ¥6.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 000876?
The PEG ratio of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd is 0.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
Balance-sheet figures for New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity −12.3%, debt of 1.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000876 from its 52-week high?
New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd trades at ¥6.92, about 31% below its 52-week high of ¥10.05 and 16% above the low of ¥5.95 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥11.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price ¥6.92, calculated fair value ¥11.16 (+61%), Quality Score 48/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000876 calculated?
We run New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥11.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥6.92. Our model-based fair value is ¥11.16, about +61% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (¥5.62 to ¥20.91). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876) come from?
Earnings per share at New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd grew −18.2 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.6 %, EBIT margin −20.0 %, tax rate −4.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
The market capitalisation of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd is 34.3B CNY (≈ $5.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
The price-to-sales ratio of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd is 0.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
Earnings per share at New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd are ¥−0.9500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
The net margin of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd is −1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
The return on equity (ROE) of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd is −12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd is −0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
The operating margin of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd is −3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876)?
Revenue at New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd is growing +4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd (000876) carry?
The net debt of New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd is 38.3B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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