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Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co (002169) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · CN · Market cap 11.7B CNY

GZ Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co 002169 · SHE
Price¥12.91
Fair Value¥2.94
Upside-77.2%
Quality45/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 4.7% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
0.53% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/14)
Narrow moat 35/100
Evidence: High Range ¥2.21 – ¥3.68 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥3.27 to ¥2.94 (−10.1%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −2.9% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 77% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥18.77 ¥4.01 Fair Value ¥2.94 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.01 – ¥18.77 · fair‑value band ¥2.21 – ¥3.68 · the ¥12.91 price screens above the ¥2.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co (002169) currently trades at ¥12.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.94, implying the stock looks roughly 77.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co generated revenue of 4.2B CNY at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue grew 58.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.3%. Net debt stands at 1.7B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥2.21 (bear case) to ¥3.68 (bull case); at ¥12.91, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 121% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -73% fair-value upside, at -77%, 002169 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥2.80 ¥2.85 ¥2.73 76
ROIC Compounder ¥0.2800 ¥0.5200 ¥0.7200 72
Gordon GGM ¥1.65 ¥3.42 ¥5.43 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥1.18 ¥6.99 ¥9.73 54
Lynch FV ¥1.99 ¥2.84 ¥3.69 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥1.99 ¥2.84 ¥3.69 46
EPV ¥0.2800 ¥0.5200 ¥0.7200 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.65 ¥3.42 ¥5.43 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.65 ¥2.89 ¥3.59 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥2.73 ¥3.64 ¥4.54 63
P/S Multiple ¥2.21 ¥2.94 ¥3.68 58
P/B Multiple ¥2.21 ¥2.94 ¥3.68 55
EV/EBIT ¥0.9700 ¥1.67 ¥2.36 53
EV/EBITDA ¥2.99 ¥4.37 ¥5.74 54
EV/Revenue ¥0.3700 ¥1.01 ¥1.65 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.82 ¥2.44 ¥3.64 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥2.80 ¥2.85 ¥2.73 76
ROIC Compounder ¥0.2800 ¥0.5200 ¥0.7200 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥2.90 ¥4.14 ¥5.39 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥4.14) versus Economic Profit (¥0.5200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 4.2B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +58.3%
Net margin 4.7%
Return on equity 9.3%
Free cash flow −300M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 59.8
More key figures
Operating margin 6.6%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.2500
Dividend yield 0.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +142%
Net debt 1.7B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 27
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 42
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 72
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.,Ltd. provides digital energy technology products and services worldwide. The company offers energy digital control systems, enterprise energy management systems, energy storage EMS, energy storage smart cloud networks, optical storage charging micro-grid smart energy management platforms, intelligent power operation and …

Full company description

Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.,Ltd. provides digital energy technology products and services worldwide. The company offers energy digital control systems, enterprise energy management systems, energy storage EMS, energy storage smart cloud networks, optical storage charging micro-grid smart energy management platforms, intelligent power operation and maintenance systems, and photovoltaic power plant operation management systems. It also provides digital energy technology and products, such as digital energy equipment and smart cables; and industrial and strategic investment products and services. The company was founded in 1999 and is based in Guangzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co reported revenue of ¥3.8B in FY2025 versus ¥1.9B in FY2021, a compound +19.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥136M in FY2025, compounding −20.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 48/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
3.8B CNY
Latest YoY
+47.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+17.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+12.3%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y)
+18.8%
Revenue +19.3%/yr
FY21 ¥1.9B
FY22 ¥2.4B
FY23 ¥2.7B
FY24 ¥2.6B
FY25 ¥3.8B
Net income −20.3%/yr
FY21 ¥336M
FY22 ¥42.3M
FY23 −¥157M
FY24 −¥326M
FY25 ¥136M

002169 screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Delta Electronics, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002169

Peer Group

Electronic Components · 626 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside −77% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Revenue growth 58% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.49× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Electronic Components median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 59.8× · Pricier than median
P/B 4.11× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.78× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 36.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.47× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 32
PAST 37 · sector 24
HEALTH 76 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 11 · sector 25

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Electronic Components stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Delta Electronics, Inc 2308 1,880 TWD 515.23 TWD -73%
Hon Hai Precision Industry Co 2317 242.50 TWD 270.47 TWD +12%
Luxshare Precision Industry Co 002475 ¥62.14 ¥38.44 -38%
Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co 009150 1,260,000 KRW 166,421 KRW -87%
Elite Material Co 2383 4,990 TWD 714.36 TWD -86%
Yageo Corporation 2327 699.00 TWD 216.55 TWD -69%
Shengyi Technology Co 600183 ¥132.29 ¥27.45 -79%
Shennan Circuits Co 002916 ¥364.00 ¥93.50 -74%
Victory Giant Technology (HuiZhou) Co 2476 HK$297.00 HK$103.98 -65%
Wus Printed Circuit (Kunshan) Co 002463 ¥127.80 ¥31.95 -75%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co (002169) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.94 versus a price of ¥12.91, about −77% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002169?
Our model-based fair value for Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co is ¥2.94 (as of Jul 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥12.91.
What is the quality score of 002169?
Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co (002169)?
Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002169?
The net profit margin of Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co is about 4.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co pay a dividend?
Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.53% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 22, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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