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Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ¥3.07, price ¥12.61, upside -75.7%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · CN · ISIN CNE1000032V9

HM Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd

002900 · SHE

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ¥3.07 · Strongly overvalued (−76%)
!Quality 30/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −10.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -39.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/11)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥32.17 ¥7.12 Fair Value ¥3.07 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥7.12 – ¥32.17 · fair‑value band ¥2.83 – ¥3.42 · the ¥12.61 price screens above the ¥3.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sale chemical pharmaceutical preparations in China.

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Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sale chemical pharmaceutical preparations in China. The company offers various drugs for nervous system, cardiovascular system, systemic anti-infective, muscle and skeletal system, nutritional infusion, and body fluid balance infusion; and other products, including oxaliplatin for injection, calcium folinate for injection, hydroxylcamptothecine injection, tropisetron hydrochloride for injection, tropisetron hydrochloride and glucose injection, gabexate mesylate for injection, bismuth potassium citrate granules, pantoprazole sodium for injection, ambroxol hydrochloride and glucose injection, asarone for injection, paracetamol and tramadol hydrochloride tablets, rifamycin sodium for injection, lornoxicam for injection, vecuronium bromide for injection, and vitamin c for injection. It also provides medical devices and cosmetics. Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Harbin, China.

Stock analysis

Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900) currently trades at ¥12.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.07, implying the stock looks roughly 310.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥3.75 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the ¥12.61 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥2.92, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥2.83 (bear) to ¥3.42 (bull), the price of ¥12.61 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd reported revenue of 789M CNY in FY2025 versus 946M CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.4%/yr. Reported net income was −340M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 4.0B CNY (≈ $595M) · P/S ratio 4.84 · EPS (TTM) ¥−1.00 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin −43.0% · Return on equity −16.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% · Operating margin −11.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −76%, 002900 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥2.83 Fair Value ¥3.07 Bull ¥3.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM ¥2.71 ¥2.92 ¥3.23 69
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.71 ¥3.22 ¥3.89 67
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.80 ¥3.75 ¥5.60 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥2.71 ¥2.92 ¥3.23 69
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.71 ¥3.22 ¥3.89 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.80 ¥3.75 ¥5.60 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 5
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 57
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 38
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 62
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−30.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.6% (2020) → −34.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

002900 screens 311% overvalued. Compare with Merck KGaA →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 630 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −77% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −39% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −12% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.15× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.35× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.76× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)58 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)56 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Merck KGaA MRK €133.95 €108.70 −19%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company TAK $18.81 $11.29 −40%
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥45.58 ¥50.14 +10%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,865 ₹1,979 +6%
Galderma Group GALD CHF 163.80 CHF 109.88 −33%
Haleon plc HLN $9.25 $8.50 −8%
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA $39.01 $20.75 −47%
Sandoz Group SDZ CHF 70.76 CHF 40.16 −43%
Zoetis Inc ZTS $71.61 $108.48 +51%
Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group 3692 HK$35.34 HK$38.87 +10%

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Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥3.07 −311%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002900

Frequently asked questions

Is Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.07 versus a price of ¥12.61, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002900?
Our model-based fair value for Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is ¥3.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥12.61.
What is the quality score of 002900?
Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.83, optimistic scenario ¥3.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.07, about −76% upside versus a price of ¥12.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.83, optimistic scenario ¥3.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 813M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd it is ¥3.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥12.61. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002900 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥12.61, fair value ¥3.07, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002900?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥12.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.07). For Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd the two are ¥9.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd worth?
The market values Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd at about 4.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥12.61; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002900?
Our models span a range for Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥2.83, base ¥3.07, optimistic ¥3.42 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥12.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
Balance-sheet figures for Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −16.4%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002900 from its 52-week high?
Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd trades at ¥12.61, about 19% below its 52-week high of ¥15.63 and 37% above the low of ¥9.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥12.61, calculated fair value ¥3.07 (−76%), Quality Score 30/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002900 calculated?
We run Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥12.61. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.07, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900) come from?
Earnings per share at Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd grew −12.7 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.6 %, EBIT margin −15.0 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
The market capitalisation of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is 4.0B CNY (≈ $595M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is 4.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
Earnings per share at Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd are ¥−1.00. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
The dividend yield of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is 2.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
The net margin of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is −43.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is −16.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
The operating margin of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is −11.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
Revenue at Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is growing +11.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900)?
Earnings per share at Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd are growing +116% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900) generate?
The free cash flow of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is −284M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (002900) carry?
The net debt of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is 584M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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