Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (TAK) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $50.3B
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
TAK · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price +0.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.74 – $18.77 · fair‑value band $6.64 – $11.32 · the $17.02 price screens above the $11.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (TAK) currently trades at $17.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.32, implying the stock looks roughly 33.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company generated revenue of $4.5T at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue grew 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.6%. Net debt stands at $4.3T. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.64 (bear case) to $11.32 (bull case); at $17.02, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -33%, TAK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($20.16) versus Earnings-Based ($4.15). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience.
Full company description
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience. The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab/Vocinti, EOHILIA, Takhzyro, Advate, Elaprase, Replagal, Vpriv, Adynovate/Adynovi, Livtencity, ADZYNMA, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Flexbumin, Adcetris, Leuplin/Enantone, Ninlaro, Iclusig, FRUZAQLA, Alunbrig, vyvanse/elvanse, Trintellix, and QDENGA brands. It has licensing and collaboration for the development and commercialization of products with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Cour Pharmaceuticals, Engitix, Halozyme, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Ucsd/Fortis Advisors, Zedira/Dr. Falk Pharma, Ac Immune, Acurastem, Anima Biotech, Biomarin, Denali Therapeutics, Luxna Biotech, Neurocrine Biosciences, Peptidream, Abbvie, Adimab, Ascentage Pharma, Crescendo Biologics, Exelixis, F-Star, Gsk, Heidelberg Pharma, Innovent Biologics, Keros Therapeutics, Kumquat Biosciences, Protagonist Therapeutics, Halozyme, Kamada, Johnson & Johnson/Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Previpharma, Novavax, Bridgene Biosciences, Charles River Laboratories, Iambic Therapeutics, Ipsen, Km Biologics, Massachusetts Institute Of Technology, and Nabla Bio. The company operates in Japan, the United States. Europe, Canada, Latin America, China, Asia, Russia/Commonwealth of Independent States, the Middle East, Oceania, and Africa. The company was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company reported revenue of ¥4.8T in FY2026 versus ¥3.6T in FY2022, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥203B in FY2026, compounding −3.0%/yr from FY2022.
TAK screens 33% overvalued. Compare with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Keros Therapeutics to Receive Development Milestone Payment from Partner Takeda
- Takeda Pharmaceutical Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
- Takeda Announces FY2026 First Quarter Results, Near-Term Launch Preparations and Pipeline Progress on Track
- How New Phase 3 Psoriasis Data For Zasocitinib At Takeda Pharmaceutical (TSE:4502) Has Changed Its Investment Story
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 625 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 | ¥53.19 | ¥25.94 | -51% |
| Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA | ₹1,933 | ₹989.50 | -49% |
| Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB | ₹7,316 | ₹1,943 | -73% |
| Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM | ₹4,763 | ₹1,329 | -72% |
| PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 | 1,285 TWD | 221.01 TWD | -83% |
| Cipla Limited CIPLA | ₹1,439 | ₹1,001 | -30% |
| Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE | ₹1,151 | ₹703.32 | -39% |
| Lupin Limited LUPIN | ₹2,443 | ₹2,477 | +1% |
| Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND | ₹2,484 | ₹983.11 | -60% |
| Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY | ₹1,211 | ₹874.79 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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