Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd stock $11.34, price $21.06, that is 46.2% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.51 – $21.06 · fair‑value band $6.20 – $11.54 · the $21.06 price screens above the $11.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience.
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The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab/Vocinti, EOHILIA, Takhzyro, Advate, Elaprase, Replagal, Vpriv, Adynovate/Adynovi, Livtencity, ADZYNMA, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Flexbumin, Adcetris, Leuplin/Enantone, Ninlaro, Iclusig, FRUZAQLA, Alunbrig, vyvanse/elvanse, Trintellix, and QDENGA brands.
It has licensing and collaboration for the development and commercialization of products with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Cour Pharmaceuticals, Engitix, Halozyme, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Ucsd/Fortis Advisors, Zedira/Dr. Falk Pharma, Ac Immune, Acurastem, Anima Biotech, Biomarin, Denali Therapeutics, Luxna Biotech, Neurocrine Biosciences, Peptidream, Abbvie, Adimab, Ascentage Pharma, Crescendo Biologics, Exelixis, F-Star, Gsk, Heidelberg Pharma, Innovent Biologics, Keros Therapeutics, Kumquat Biosciences, Protagonist Therapeutics, Halozyme, Kamada, Johnson & Johnson/Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Previpharma, Novavax, Bridgene Biosciences, Charles River Laboratories, Iambic Therapeutics, Ipsen, Km Biologics, Massachusetts Institute Of Technology, and Nabla Bio. The company operates in Japan, the United States.
Europe, Canada, Latin America, China, Asia, Russia/Commonwealth of Independent States, the Middle East, Oceania, and Africa. The company was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK) currently trades at $21.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.34, 46% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $17.27 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the $21.06 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.96, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.20 (bear) to $11.54 (bull), the price of $21.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥4.8T in FY2026 versus ¥3.6T in FY2022, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥203B in FY2026, compounding −3.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $67.5B Large · EPS (TTM) $−0.3400 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity −2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% · Operating margin 16.5% · Revenue (TTM) ¥4.6T.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −46%, TAK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$6.20Fair Value $11.34Bull$11.54
Price $21.06 · Downside -46.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.2% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.8% vs 0.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.0% a year for the price and −0.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Pipeline momentum in first-in-class rare-disease treatments offers growth potential while low returns and elevated debt constrain advantages in the competitive generics market.
Main risk: Expiring patents on key products such as Entyvio, Trintellix and Vyvanse could allow generic manufacturers to enter with lower-priced versions and reduce sales and margins on those franchises.
Bull case: Successful launches of pipeline assets such as the orexin agonist and zasocitinib could offset revenue losses from maturing products and strengthen the specialty portfolio.
Bear case: Multiple patent expiries combined with large legal payouts could accelerate erosion of core revenues and limit funds available for further pipeline advancement or acquisitions.
Takeda is advancing its first-in-class orexin agonist for narcolepsy type 1 toward a potential US launch by November after FDA priority review acceptance and Japanese approval. This adds to pipeline momentum in psoriasis and IBD while the core business faces standard pressures in specialty drugs. Our models see it as overvalued. Will the new rare-disease launches generate enough durable growth to change that assessment or will established products limit the upside?
Compare Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 554 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−46.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)16.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.56× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.37× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.31× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow17.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA11.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.45× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)51· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)72· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)61· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TAK
Frequently asked questions
Is Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.34 versus a price of $21.06, about 46% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TAK?
Our model-based fair value for Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is $11.34 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.06.
What is the quality score of TAK?
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.34 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.20, optimistic scenario $11.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.34, about 46% lower versus a price of $21.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.20, optimistic scenario $11.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥4.6T (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.99% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +8.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TAK use?
Our models discount Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR that is +8.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR grew +8.4 % a year. The price currently implies +8.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR (+8.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.86 %: that much free cash flow Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR it is $11.34 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $21.06. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, TAK trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.06, fair value $11.34, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TAK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.34). For Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR the two are $9.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR at about $67.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $21.06; our models calculate a fair value of $11.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TAK?
Our models span a range for Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $6.20, base $11.34, optimistic $11.54 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $21.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TAK?
The PEG ratio of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is 0.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity −2.3%, debt of 0.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TAK from its 52-week high?
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR trades at $21.06, at its 52-week high of $21.06 and 61% above the low of $13.05 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Galderma Group, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $21.06, calculated fair value $11.34 (−46%), Quality Score 52/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TAK calculated?
We run Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $21.06. Our model-based fair value is $11.34, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($6.20 to $11.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK) come from?
Earnings per share at Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR grew −3.1 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin +0.3 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
The market capitalisation of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is $67.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
Earnings per share at Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR are $−0.3400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
The dividend yield of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is 3.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
The net margin of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is 4.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is −2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
The operating margin of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
Revenue at Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is growing +10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK)?
Earnings per share at Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR are growing −9.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK) carry?
The net debt of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is ¥4.3T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 6.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 5, 2026