China Beidahuang Industry Group (0039) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$362M
Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Below-average quality, and screening another 25% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0383). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0350 – HK$0.2270 · fair‑value band HK$0.0293 – HK$0.0383 · the HK$0.0450 price screens above the HK$0.0338 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
Analysis
China Beidahuang Industry Group (0039) currently trades at HK$0.0450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0338, implying the stock looks roughly 24.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$243M. Revenue grew 62.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -14.3%. Net debt stands at HK$108M. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0293 (bear case) to HK$0.0383 (bull case); at HK$0.0450, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at -25%, 0039 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$0.0400) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.0200). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Beidahuang Industry Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in trading of food products and rental business in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It operates through two segments, Trading of Food Products and Rental.
Full company description
China Beidahuang Industry Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in trading of food products and rental business in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It operates through two segments, Trading of Food Products and Rental. The Trading of Food Products segment engages in wholesaling and retailing of staple food, cooking oil, alcohol and beverage, frozen and fresh food, and commodity hog products. The Rental segment leases logistic facilities in Hong Kong and office facilities in the People's Republic of China. It also sells green food products. The company was formerly known as Sino Distillery Group Limited and changed its name to China Beidahuang Industry Group Holdings Limited in May 2015. China Beidahuang Industry Group Holdings Limited is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
China Beidahuang Industry Group reported revenue of HK$182M in FY2024 versus HK$859M in FY2020, a compound −32.1%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$296M in FY2024.
0039 screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →
Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$65.49 | C$44.44 | -32% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €36.30 | €53.50 | +47% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $58.82 | $28.19 | -52% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$39.20 | A$13.40 | -66% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$100.98 | C$63.61 | -37% |
| Coles Group COL | A$23.56 | A$15.86 | -33% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$93.64 | C$94.01 | +0% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €16.40 | €11.51 | -30% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.89 SGD | 2.36 SGD | +25% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 385.75 TRY | 267.12 TRY | -31% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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