China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd HK$36.52, price HK$25.90, upside +41.0%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$5.99 – HK$27.39 · fair‑value band HK$27.39 – HK$45.65 · the HK$25.90 price screens below the HK$36.52 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd. specializes in investments in financial services, culture and media, manufacturing, real estate. The fund primarily invests in companies based in China. It prefers to invest in not more than $10 million in high-tech projects including through initial public offerings and/ or pre-listing placements.
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China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd. specializes in investments in financial services, culture and media, manufacturing, real estate. The fund primarily invests in companies based in China. It prefers to invest in not more than $10 million in high-tech projects including through initial public offerings and/ or pre-listing placements. The fund also invest around 10 percent of its net asset value in listed shares, including China concept shares, "H" Shares & "B" Shares. The fund as a direct investment fund backed up by China Merchants Group.
Stock analysis
China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133) currently trades at HK$25.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$36.52, implying the stock looks roughly 29.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 22 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: HK$27.39 (bear) to HK$45.65 (bull), the price of HK$25.90 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd reported revenue of $23.5M in FY2025 versus $63.0M in FY2021, a compound −21.9%/yr. Reported net income was $190M in FY2025, compounding +67.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$3.9B (≈ $503M) · P/E ratio 2.1 · P/S ratio 16.7 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.9200 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 75.8% · Return on equity 25.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 41%, 0133 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$27.39Fair Value HK$36.52Bull HK$45.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.6094 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +15.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16% vs 7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.85% → 1,058%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 10.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 202% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+68.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +64.9% a year for the price.
Compare China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 657 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+39% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Return on assets17% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)76% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)97% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−29% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0133
Frequently asked questions
Is China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$36.52 versus a price of HK$25.90, about +41% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0133?
Our model-based fair value for China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd is HK$36.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$25.90.
What is the quality score of 0133?
China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$36.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$27.39, optimistic scenario HK$45.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$36.52, about +41% upside versus a price of HK$25.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$27.39, optimistic scenario HK$45.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd pay a dividend?
China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.35% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +68.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -30.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0133 use?
Our models discount China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd that is +68.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd grew -30.4 % a year. The price currently implies +68.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (+68.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.32 %: that much free cash flow China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd it is HK$36.52 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$25.90. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0133 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$25.90, fair value HK$36.52, a gap of about +41% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0133?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$25.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$36.52). For China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd the two are HK$10.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd worth?
The market values China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd at about HK$3.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$25.90; our models calculate a fair value of HK$36.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0133?
Our models span a range for China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd: cautious scenario HK$27.39, base HK$36.52, optimistic HK$45.65 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$25.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0133?
China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$36.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 2.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 25.6%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0133 from its 52-week high?
China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd trades at HK$25.90, about 5% below its 52-week high of HK$27.39 and 83% above the low of HK$14.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$36.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$25.90, calculated fair value HK$36.52 (+41%), Quality Score 69/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0133 calculated?
We run China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$36.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd currently trades 41 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$25.90. Our model-based fair value is HK$36.52, about +41% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$27.39). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133) come from?
Earnings per share at China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd grew +4.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.3 %, EBIT margin +9.5 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
The market capitalisation of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd is HK$3.9B (≈ $503M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd is 16.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
Earnings per share at China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd are HK$0.9200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
The dividend yield of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd is 0.3% (payout 9.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
The net margin of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd is 75.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd is 25.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
The operating margin of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd is 97.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
Revenue at China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd is growing −28.9% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
Earnings per share at China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd are growing −18.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133) hold?
China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$30.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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