China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$3.1B
Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price +12.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 68% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$9.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$6.08 – HK$27.82 · fair‑value band HK$5.75 – HK$9.59 · the HK$24.10 price screens above the HK$7.67 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
Analysis
China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133) currently trades at HK$24.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.67, implying the stock looks roughly 68.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd generated revenue of HK$251M at a net margin of 75.8%. Revenue declined 28.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$30.2M. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$5.75 (bear case) to HK$9.59 (bull case); at HK$24.10, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -68%, 0133 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$4.66) versus Asset-Based (HK$3.67). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).
Notify me when 0133 reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd. specializes in investments in financial services, culture and media, manufacturing, real estate. The fund primarily invests in companies based in China. It prefers to invest in not more than $10 million in high-tech projects including through initial public offerings and/ or pre-listing placements.
Full company description
China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd. specializes in investments in financial services, culture and media, manufacturing, real estate. The fund primarily invests in companies based in China. It prefers to invest in not more than $10 million in high-tech projects including through initial public offerings and/ or pre-listing placements. The fund also invest around 10 percent of its net asset value in listed shares, including China concept shares, "H" Shares & "B" Shares. The fund as a direct investment fund backed up by China Merchants Group.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd reported revenue of HK$23.5M in FY2025 versus HK$63.0M in FY2021, a compound −21.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$190M in FY2025, compounding +67.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −4.3 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
0133 screens 68% overvalued. Compare with Fondul Proprietatea SA →
Peer Group
Asset Management · 971 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fondul Proprietatea SA FP | $0.0420 | $0.0800 | +90% |
| BlackRock, Inc BLK | $1,136 | $465.75 | -59% |
| Blackstone Inc BX | $124.56 | $16.35 | -87% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 423.70 | kr 847.40 | +100% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$62.45 | C$10.12 | -84% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $100.94 | $44.88 | -56% |
| AB Industrivärden INDUA | kr 532.50 | kr 1,065 | +100% |
| Jio Financial Services Limited JIOFIN | ₹242.98 | ₹40.19 | -83% |
| Hedef Holding HEDEF | 267.25 TRY | 320.98 TRY | +20% |
| Bajaj Holdings BAJAJHLDNG | ₹10,398 | ₹9,202 | -12% |
Compare China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Financial Services stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of 0133?
What is the quality score of 0133?
What is the revenue of China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd (0133)?
What is the net profit margin of 0133?
Does China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track China Merchants China Direct Investments Ltd and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.