Four Seas Mercantile Holdings (0374) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$954M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −3.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 78% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.7000). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.15 – HK$2.90 · fair‑value band HK$0.4200 – HK$0.7000 · the HK$2.50 price screens above the HK$0.5600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Four Seas Mercantile Holdings (0374) currently trades at HK$2.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5600, implying the stock looks roughly 77.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Four Seas Mercantile Holdings generated revenue of HK$3.7B at a net margin of 0.1%. Revenue grew 3.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.1%. Net debt stands at HK$836M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.4200 (bear case) to HK$0.7000 (bull case); at HK$2.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -78%, 0374 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$2.11) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.3800). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and trade in snack food, confectionery, beverages, frozen food products, noodles, and ham and ham-related products in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and Japan.
Full company description
Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and trade in snack food, confectionery, beverages, frozen food products, noodles, and ham and ham-related products in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and Japan. The company offers food comprising milk powder, biscuits, cakes, candies, chocolates, chips, snacks, instant noodles, beverages, alcohol, soy sauce, seasonings, ham, sausages, chicken, beef, pork, seafood, seaweed, and vegetables, as well as eggs, dairy products, tofu, and rice. Its retail and catering business operates restaurants, such as the Shiki Etsu Japanese restaurant; Kung Tak Lam Shanghai vegetarian restaurant; Sushiyoshi Japanese omakase restaurant; Sushi Oh revolving sushi restaurant; Panxi; Noble Chiu Chow restaurant; The CHOYA Ginza BAR; Okashi Land Japanese snack stores; YOKU MOKU cookies stores; Japanese Ice Cream House; and Seas of Flavour. The company also operates 17 food processing plants that produce snacks, such as potato chips, shrimp strips, and corn sticks. In addition, it provides lunchboxes and tuck-shop services, as well as transportation services. Further, the company is involved in property investment and holding; marketing of snack food; processing of chestnuts; e-commerce retail of confectionery and food products; manufacture and package of ham and ham-related products; and advertising agency business. It offers its products through a distribution network that covers department stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, fast food chains, wholesalers, retailers, restaurants, bars, hotels, and airlines. Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Limited was founded in 1971 and is based in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Four Seas Mercantile Holdings reported revenue of HK$3.6B in FY2025 versus HK$4.6B in FY2021, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$10.2M in FY2025, compounding −23.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
0374 screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 649 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,507 | ₹362.37 | -76% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,646 | ₹1,870 | -67% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,062 | ₹327.27 | -69% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 7,550 IDR | 12,864 IDR | +70% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,219,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -17% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹352.60 | ₹144.77 | -59% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 61,600 VND | 52,858 VND | -14% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,665 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +62% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,630 IDR | 4,350 IDR | -6% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 389,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +36% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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