Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd stock HK$1.76, price HK$2.59, that is 31.9% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.21 – HK$2.90 · fair‑value band HK$1.41 – HK$1.93 · the HK$2.59 price screens above the HK$1.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 13, 2026.
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Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and trade in snack food, confectionery, beverages, frozen food products, noodles, and ham and ham-related products in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and Japan.
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The company offers food comprising milk powder, biscuits, cakes, candies, chocolates, chips, snacks, instant noodles, beverages, alcohol, soy sauce, seasonings, ham, sausages, chicken, beef, pork, seafood, seaweed, and vegetables, as well as eggs, dairy products, tofu, and rice.
Its retail and catering business operates restaurants, such as the Shiki Etsu Japanese restaurant; Kung Tak Lam Shanghai vegetarian restaurant; Sushiyoshi Japanese omakase restaurant; Sushi Oh revolving sushi restaurant; Panxi; Noble Chiu Chow restaurant; The CHOYA Ginza BAR; Okashi Land Japanese snack stores; YOKU MOKU cookies stores; Japanese Ice Cream House; and Seas of Flavour.
The company also operates 17 food processing plants that produce snacks, such as potato chips, shrimp strips, and corn sticks. In addition, it provides lunchboxes and tuck-shop services, as well as transportation services.
Further, the company is involved in property investment and holding; marketing of snack food; processing of chestnuts; e-commerce retail of confectionery and food products; manufacture and package of ham and ham-related products; and advertising agency business.
It offers its products through a distribution network that covers department stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, fast food chains, wholesalers, retailers, restaurants, bars, hotels, and airlines. Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Limited was founded in 1971 and is based in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374) currently trades at HK$2.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.76, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$6.09 per share, and 12 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$2.59 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.5000, and 13 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.41 (bear) to HK$1.93 (bull), the price of HK$2.59 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$3.7B in FY2026 versus HK$4.7B in FY2022, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$13.1M in FY2026, compounding +0.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$982M (≈ $125M) Micro · P/E ratio 86.2 · P/S ratio 0.26 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0300 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 19 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −32%, 0374 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$1.41Fair Value HK$1.76BullHK$1.93
Price HK$2.59 · Downside -31.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.4% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +20.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +16.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.2% vs −12.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 2%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2021 (starting value 0.094 per share, median 0.19 in 2016 to 2019). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.6% a year for the price.
Compare Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 661 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−31.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Return on assets0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0374
Frequently asked questions
Is Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.76 versus a price of HK$2.59, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0374?
Our model-based fair value for Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd is HK$1.76 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.59.
What is the quality score of 0374?
Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.76 (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.41, optimistic scenario HK$1.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.76, about 32% lower versus a price of HK$2.59 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.41, optimistic scenario HK$1.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
Does Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.68% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 13, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd pays a dividend of HK$0.095 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 2, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1999. Free cash flow covers the dividend 5.77 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -2.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.0 % per year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0374 use?
Our models discount Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd that is -2.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd grew -4.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -2.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (-2.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.20 %: that much free cash flow Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd it is HK$1.76 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of HK$2.59. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 0374 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$2.59, fair value HK$1.76, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0374?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.76). For Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.8250 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd at about HK$982M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.59; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0374?
Our models span a range for Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.41, base HK$1.76, optimistic HK$1.93 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price HK$2.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0374?
Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 86.2 (as of Nov 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.76 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 33.0. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
Balance-sheet figures for Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity 1.2%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0374 from its 52-week high?
Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd trades at HK$2.59, about 5% below its 52-week high of HK$2.72 and 3% above the low of HK$2.50 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price HK$2.59, calculated fair value HK$1.76 (−32%), Quality Score 60/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0374 calculated?
We run Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$1.76 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was HK$2.59. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.76, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374) come from?
Earnings per share at Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd grew −14.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.9 %, EBIT margin −6.1 %, tax rate −3.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
The market capitalisation of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd is HK$982M (≈ $125M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd is 0.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
Earnings per share at Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 86.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
The dividend yield of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd is 3.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
The net margin of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd is 0.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
The operating margin of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
Revenue at Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374)?
Earnings per share at Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd are growing −35.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd (0374) carry?
The net debt of Four Seas Mercantile Holdings Ltd is HK$811M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 13, 2026