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Grand Pharmaceutical Group (0512) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$16.5B

GP Grand Pharmaceutical Group 0512 · HK
PriceHK$5.24
Fair ValueHK$5.48
Upside+4.6%
Quality51/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 10.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.54% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Narrow moat 39/100
Evidence: High Range HK$4.00 – HK$7.10 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$6.02 to HK$5.48 (−9.0%) since Aug 2, 2026. Share price −0.4% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from HK$4.00 (bear) to HK$7.10 (bull), base HK$5.48. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 51/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$9.50 HK$2.86 Fair Value HK$5.48 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.86 – HK$9.50 · fair‑value band HK$4.00 – HK$7.10 · the HK$5.24 price screens below the HK$5.48 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Grand Pharmaceutical Group (0512) currently trades at HK$5.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.48, implying the stock looks roughly 4.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Grand Pharmaceutical Group generated revenue of HK$12.3B at a net margin of 10.1%. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.4%. Net debt stands at HK$3.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$4.00 (bear case) to HK$7.10 (bull case); at HK$5.24, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at 5%, 0512 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$3.18 HK$6.32 HK$12.40 80
Residual Income HK$4.01 HK$4.26 HK$4.61 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.86 HK$5.89 HK$10.48 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$3.36 HK$5.66 HK$12.46 38
Owner Earnings HK$4.72 HK$10.99 HK$24.16 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.86 HK$5.44 HK$10.52 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.27 HK$8.45 HK$16.19 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$4.96 HK$11.13 HK$19.20 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.89 HK$6.23 HK$9.89 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.00 HK$8.94 HK$18.22 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$4.49 HK$10.29 HK$20.57 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.41 HK$16.80 HK$23.58 54
Lynch FV HK$5.19 HK$7.41 HK$9.63 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$5.19 HK$7.41 HK$9.63 46
EPV HK$1.96 HK$2.32 HK$2.64 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$2.39 HK$4.96 HK$7.87 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.39 HK$4.19 HK$5.21 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$5.85 HK$7.80 HK$9.74 63
P/S Multiple HK$4.52 HK$6.02 HK$7.53 58
P/B Multiple HK$4.52 HK$6.02 HK$7.53 55
EV/EBIT HK$3.60 HK$4.87 HK$6.13 53
EV/EBITDA HK$4.68 HK$6.30 HK$7.92 54
EV/Revenue HK$2.52 HK$3.68 HK$4.84 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.43 HK$3.26 HK$4.86 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$3.18 HK$6.32 HK$12.40 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.86 HK$5.89 HK$10.48 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.01 HK$4.26 HK$4.61 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.96 HK$2.32 HK$2.64 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$7.14 HK$10.20 HK$13.26 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$10.20) versus Economic Profit (HK$2.32). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$12.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.3%
Net margin 10.1%
Return on equity 7.4%
Free cash flow HK$774M FY2025
P/E ratio 13.4 as of Jul 1, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 9.3%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.3300
Dividend yield 3.5%
EPS growth (YoY) -92.1%
Net debt HK$3.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Grand Pharmaceutical Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of pharmaceutical preparations and medical devices, biotechnology and healthcare products, and pharmaceutical raw materials.

Full company description

Grand Pharmaceutical Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of pharmaceutical preparations and medical devices, biotechnology and healthcare products, and pharmaceutical raw materials. The company offers respiratory, ophthalmology, cerebro-cardiovascular emergency, and biotechnology related products. It manufactures and sells pharmaceutical, taurine, agrochemicals, chemical medicine, and amino acid series products. In addition, the company provides bio-pesticides and additives; disposal surgical products; and Chinese medicine, and health food products. The company has a strategic cooperation agreement with the Eye Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University in the field of ophthalmic drug research and development. It operates in the People's Republic of China, the rest of Asia, the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company has a strategic partnership with the University of Hong Kong for the research and development of drugs in the field of anti-infection and the industrialization of the research results. The company was formerly known as China Grand Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Holdings Limited. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Grand Pharmaceutical Group reported revenue of HK$12.3B in FY2025 versus HK$8.6B in FY2021, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.2B in FY2025, compounding −15.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$12.3B
Latest YoY
+5.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.1%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.0%
Revenue +9.3%/yr
FY21 HK$8.6B
FY22 HK$9.6B
FY23 HK$10.5B
FY24 HK$11.6B
FY25 HK$12.3B
Net income −15.2%/yr
FY21 HK$2.4B
FY22 HK$2.1B
FY23 HK$1.9B
FY24 HK$2.5B
FY25 HK$1.2B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +21.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.8 pp

of which total revenue +14.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.9 pp

EBIT margin +4.9 pp
Tax rate −0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +7.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Grand Pharmaceutical Group · Fair Value
HK$5.48 +5%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grand Pharmaceutical Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0512

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 624 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +5% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Below median
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.5% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.11× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.97× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.34× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.4× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 39 · sector 6
FUTURE 52 · sector 21
PAST 30 · sector 25
HEALTH 95 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 71 · sector 31

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥53.76 ¥25.94 -52%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,944 ₹989.50 -49%
Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB ₹8,500 ₹1,932 -77%
Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM ₹4,915 ₹1,163 -76%
PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 1,440 TWD 233.93 TWD -84%
Cipla Limited CIPLA ₹1,463 ₹1,001 -32%
Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE ₹1,167 ₹703.32 -40%
Lupin Limited LUPIN ₹2,281 ₹2,477 +9%
Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND ₹2,433 ₹983.11 -60%
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY ₹1,200 ₹874.79 -27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Grand Pharmaceutical Group (0512) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.48 versus a price of HK$5.24, about +5% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0512?
Our model-based fair value for Grand Pharmaceutical Group is HK$5.48 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$5.24.
What is the quality score of 0512?
Grand Pharmaceutical Group has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Grand Pharmaceutical Group (0512)?
Grand Pharmaceutical Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$12.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0512?
The net profit margin of Grand Pharmaceutical Group is about 10.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Grand Pharmaceutical Group pay a dividend?
Grand Pharmaceutical Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.54% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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