Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd HK$0.15, price HK$0.23, upside -34.8%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1480 – HK$0.4071 · fair‑value band HK$0.1300 – HK$0.1800 · the HK$0.2300 price screens above the HK$0.1500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Shenguan Holdings (Group) Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of edible collagen sausage casing products in Mainland China, Asia, and internationally.
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Shenguan Holdings (Group) Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of edible collagen sausage casing products in Mainland China, Asia, and internationally. It manufactures and sells pharmaceutical products and intermediates; collagen food products; collagen skin care products and polymer collagen medical biomaterials; collagen medical devices; and fine chemicals for human use. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829) currently trades at HK$0.2300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1500, 34.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1300 (bear) to HK$0.1800 (bull), the price of HK$0.2300 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd reported revenue of 1.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.3%/yr. Reported net income was −69.8M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$743M (≈ $94.7M) · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0100 · Net margin −6.8% · Return on equity −3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4% · Operating margin −4.0% · Revenue (TTM) 1.0B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −35%, 0829 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.1300Fair Value HK$0.1500Bull HK$0.1800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.3% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.4% (2020) → −5.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 644 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−34.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−6.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−4.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)23.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/S (TTM)0.09× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.39× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)13· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0829
Frequently asked questions
Is Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1500 versus a price of HK$0.2300, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0829?
Our model-based fair value for Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd is HK$0.1500 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2300.
What is the quality score of 0829?
Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1500 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1300, optimistic scenario HK$0.1800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1500, about −35% upside versus a price of HK$0.2300 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1300, optimistic scenario HK$0.1800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829)?
Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd it is HK$0.1500 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2300. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0829 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2300, fair value HK$0.1500, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0829?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1500). For Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd the two are HK$0.0800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd worth?
The market values Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd at about HK$743M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2300; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0829?
Our models span a range for Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1300, base HK$0.1500, optimistic HK$0.1800 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.2300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 0829?
The PEG ratio of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd is 0.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −3.0%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0829 from its 52-week high?
Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd trades at HK$0.2300, about 22% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2950 and 55% above the low of HK$0.1480 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.2300, calculated fair value HK$0.1500 (−35%), Quality Score 45/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0829 calculated?
We run Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.2300. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1500, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1800). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829)?
The market capitalisation of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd is HK$743M (≈ $94.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd is 0.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829)?
Earnings per share at Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd are HK$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829)?
The net margin of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd is −6.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd is −3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829)?
The operating margin of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd is −4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829)?
Revenue at Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829)?
Earnings per share at Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd are growing −41.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829) generate?
The free cash flow of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd is −126M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (0829) hold?
Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, 150M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026