China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of China Medical System Holdings Ltd HK$12.16, price HK$10.37, upside +17.3%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$5.76 – HK$18.08 · fair‑value band HK$6.74 – HK$16.47 · the HK$10.37 price screens below the HK$12.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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China Medical System Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures, sells, markets, and promotes pharmaceutical products in the People's Republic of China.
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China Medical System Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures, sells, markets, and promotes pharmaceutical products in the People's Republic of China. The company offers cardio-cerebrovascular products include VELPHORO, a sucroferric oxyhydroxide chewable tablets and diazepam nasal spray for seizure clusters; XinHuoSu, a recombinant human brain natriuretic peptide for acute heart failure; Plendil, a felodipine sustained release tablets for hypertension; and Deanxit, a flupentixol and melitracen tablets for mild-to-moderate depression. It also provides gastroenterology products, such as METOJECT, a methotrexate injection to treat severe recalcitrant disabling psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis; LUMEBLUE, a methylthioninium chloride enteric-coated sustained-release tablets for colorectal lesion visualization; Salofalk for ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease; Bioflor, a saccharomyces boulardii sachets for diarrhea; Combizym and Cidine for digestive enzymes; and Ursofalk, a ursodeoxycholic acid capsules to treat cholesterol gallstones. In addition, the company offers dermatology products, including ILUMETRI, a tildrakizumab injection for the treatment of plaque psoriasis; Aethoxysklerol, a polidocanol injection for sclerotherapy of various varicose veins; Hirudoid, a mucopolysaccharide polysulfate cream to treat blunt traumata; skin heling soothing product; and Hirudoid for acne-prone skin care, prevention, and enhancement of acne. Further, it provides Vmonalisa, modified sodium hyaluronate filler for mid to deep dermal implantation; augentropfen stulln mono eye drops for asthenopia; EyeOP1 glaucoma treatment device; and Elcitonin for Osteoporosis pain. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in North Point, Hong Kong. China Medical System Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Treasure Sea Limited.
Stock analysis
China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867) currently trades at HK$10.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.16, implying the stock looks roughly 14.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$17.43 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$10.37 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at HK$4.49, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$6.74 (bear) to HK$16.47 (bull), the price of HK$10.37 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
China Medical System Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 8.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 8.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding −16.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$25.1B (≈ $3.2B) · P/E ratio 14.1 · P/S ratio 2.55 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 18.1% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.6% · Operating margin 22.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 17%, 0867 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$6.74Fair Value HK$12.16Bull HK$16.47
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.7% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−6.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.7% vs 3.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40% → 19%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.0% a year for the price and +14.9% for the forecasts.
Compare China Medical System Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 622 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+17.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.4% · Above median
Return on assets5.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)17.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)22.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Medical System Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0867
Frequently asked questions
Is China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$12.16 versus a price of HK$10.37, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0867?
Our model-based fair value for China Medical System Holdings Ltd is HK$12.16 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$10.37.
What is the quality score of 0867?
China Medical System Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$12.16 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$6.74, optimistic scenario HK$16.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Medical System Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$12.16, about +17% upside versus a price of HK$10.37 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$6.74, optimistic scenario HK$16.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
China Medical System Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does China Medical System Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
China Medical System Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Medical System Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +35.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.4 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0867 use?
Our models discount China Medical System Holdings Ltd at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.10, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Medical System Holdings Ltd that is +35.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Medical System Holdings Ltd grew +3.4 % a year. The price currently implies +35.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Medical System Holdings Ltd (+35.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.14 %: that much free cash flow China Medical System Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Medical System Holdings Ltd it is HK$12.16 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$10.37. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Medical System Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 0867 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$10.37, fair value HK$12.16, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0867?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$10.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$12.16). For China Medical System Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Medical System Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values China Medical System Holdings Ltd at about HK$25.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$10.37; our models calculate a fair value of HK$12.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0867?
Our models span a range for China Medical System Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$6.74, base HK$12.16, optimistic HK$16.47 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price HK$10.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0867?
China Medical System Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$12.16 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 1.2, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 9.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 0867?
The PEG ratio of China Medical System Holdings Ltd is 0.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Medical System Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 8.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0867 from its 52-week high?
China Medical System Holdings Ltd trades at HK$10.37, about 31% below its 52-week high of HK$15.01 and 6% above the low of HK$9.77 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$12.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Medical System Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Medical System Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$10.37, calculated fair value HK$12.16 (+17%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0867 calculated?
We run China Medical System Holdings Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$12.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. China Medical System Holdings Ltd currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$10.37. Our model-based fair value is HK$12.16, about +17% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Medical System Holdings Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$6.74 to HK$16.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867) come from?
Earnings per share at China Medical System Holdings Ltd grew +5.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.6 %, EBIT margin −3.6 %, tax rate −1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Medical System Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
The market capitalisation of China Medical System Holdings Ltd is HK$25.1B (≈ $3.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Medical System Holdings Ltd is 2.55 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
The dividend yield of China Medical System Holdings Ltd is 2.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
The net margin of China Medical System Holdings Ltd is 18.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Medical System Holdings Ltd is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Medical System Holdings Ltd is 14.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
The operating margin of China Medical System Holdings Ltd is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
Revenue at China Medical System Holdings Ltd is growing +12.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867)?
Earnings per share at China Medical System Holdings Ltd are growing +4.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Medical System Holdings Ltd (0867) hold?
China Medical System Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 2.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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