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China Medical System Holdings (0867) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$25.0B

CM China Medical System Holdings 0867 · HK
PriceHK$11.82
Fair ValueHK$12.36
Upside+4.6%
Quality60/100
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Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 18.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.77% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (12/15)
Moderate moat 55/100
Evidence: High Range HK$6.83 – HK$16.26 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$12.35 to HK$12.36 (+0.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −6.7% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$6.83 to HK$16.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$18.38 HK$5.86 Fair Value HK$12.36 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$5.86 – HK$18.38 · fair‑value band HK$6.83 – HK$16.26 · the HK$11.82 price screens below the HK$12.36 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Medical System Holdings (0867) currently trades at HK$11.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.36, implying the stock looks roughly 4.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Medical System Holdings generated revenue of HK$8.2B at a net margin of 18.1%. Revenue grew 9.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$2.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$6.83 (bear case) to HK$16.26 (bull case); at HK$11.82, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at 5%, 0867 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$2.51 HK$3.96 HK$6.26 80
Residual Income HK$6.05 HK$6.55 HK$8.35 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$5.76 HK$10.72 HK$17.69 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.55 HK$3.77 HK$6.85 38
Owner Earnings HK$8.42 HK$16.10 HK$30.90 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$5.76 HK$11.04 HK$18.81 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$6.86 HK$13.48 HK$22.46 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$8.28 HK$16.65 HK$27.04 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$4.52 HK$9.29 HK$17.79 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.49 HK$11.15 HK$21.08 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$6.46 HK$13.58 HK$25.22 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$4.16 HK$24.54 HK$34.18 54
Lynch FV HK$6.96 HK$9.95 HK$12.93 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$6.96 HK$9.95 HK$12.93 46
EPV HK$4.71 HK$5.31 HK$5.83 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$10.10 HK$13.46 HK$16.83 63
P/S Multiple HK$7.80 HK$10.40 HK$13.00 58
P/B Multiple HK$7.80 HK$10.40 HK$13.00 55
EV/EBIT HK$9.38 HK$12.14 HK$14.90 53
EV/EBITDA HK$9.07 HK$11.73 HK$14.38 54
EV/Revenue HK$7.01 HK$9.54 HK$12.07 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.58 HK$4.79 HK$7.15 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.51 HK$3.96 HK$6.26 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$5.76 HK$10.72 HK$17.69 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$6.05 HK$6.55 HK$8.35 76
ROIC Compounder HK$4.71 HK$5.31 HK$5.83 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$10.43 HK$14.90 HK$19.37 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$14.90) versus Growth DCF (HK$3.96). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$8.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.1%
Net margin 18.1%
Return on equity 8.5%
Free cash flow HK$244M FY2025
P/E ratio 14.5 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 17.7%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.3900
Dividend yield 2.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -22.9%
Net cash HK$2.0B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 17
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 89
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 78
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 53
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 86
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Medical System Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures, sells, markets, and promotes pharmaceutical products in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

China Medical System Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures, sells, markets, and promotes pharmaceutical products in the People's Republic of China. The company offers cardio-cerebrovascular products include VELPHORO, a sucroferric oxyhydroxide chewable tablets and diazepam nasal spray for seizure clusters; XinHuoSu, a recombinant human brain natriuretic peptide for acute heart failure; Plendil, a felodipine sustained release tablets for hypertension; and Deanxit, a flupentixol and melitracen tablets for mild-to-moderate depression. It also provides gastroenterology products, such as METOJECT, a methotrexate injection to treat severe recalcitrant disabling psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis; LUMEBLUE, a methylthioninium chloride enteric-coated sustained-release tablets for colorectal lesion visualization; Salofalk for ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease; Bioflor, a saccharomyces boulardii sachets for diarrhea; Combizym and Cidine for digestive enzymes; and Ursofalk, a ursodeoxycholic acid capsules to treat cholesterol gallstones. In addition, the company offers dermatology products, including ILUMETRI, a tildrakizumab injection for the treatment of plaque psoriasis; Aethoxysklerol, a polidocanol injection for sclerotherapy of various varicose veins; Hirudoid, a mucopolysaccharide polysulfate cream to treat blunt traumata; skin heling soothing product; and Hirudoid for acne-prone skin care, prevention, and enhancement of acne. Further, it provides Vmonalisa, modified sodium hyaluronate filler for mid to deep dermal implantation; augentropfen stulln mono eye drops for asthenopia; EyeOP1 glaucoma treatment device; and Elcitonin for Osteoporosis pain. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in North Point, Hong Kong. China Medical System Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Treasure Sea Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Medical System Holdings reported revenue of HK$8.2B in FY2025 versus HK$8.3B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.5B in FY2025, compounding −16.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$8.2B
Latest YoY
+9.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.4%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+31.2%
Revenue −0.4%/yr
FY21 HK$8.3B
FY22 HK$9.2B
FY23 HK$8.0B
FY24 HK$7.5B
FY25 HK$8.2B
Net income −16.2%/yr
FY21 HK$3.0B
FY22 HK$3.3B
FY23 HK$2.4B
FY24 HK$1.6B
FY25 HK$1.5B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +5.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.6 pp

of which total revenue +8.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.1 pp

EBIT margin −3.6 pp
Tax rate −1.9 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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China Medical System Holdings · Fair Value
HK$12.36 +5%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Medical System Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0867

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 624 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside +5% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Above median
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.44× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.05× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 13.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 12.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.24× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 39 · sector 6
FUTURE 46 · sector 21
PAST 34 · sector 25
HEALTH 100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 55 · sector 31

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥53.76 ¥25.94 -52%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,944 ₹989.50 -49%
Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB ₹8,500 ₹1,932 -77%
Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM ₹4,915 ₹1,163 -76%
PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 1,440 TWD 233.93 TWD -84%
Cipla Limited CIPLA ₹1,463 ₹1,001 -32%
Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE ₹1,167 ₹703.32 -40%
Lupin Limited LUPIN ₹2,281 ₹2,477 +9%
Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND ₹2,433 ₹983.11 -60%
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY ₹1,200 ₹874.79 -27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Medical System Holdings (0867) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$12.36 versus a price of HK$11.82, about +5% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0867?
Our model-based fair value for China Medical System Holdings is HK$12.36 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$11.82.
What is the quality score of 0867?
China Medical System Holdings has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Medical System Holdings (0867)?
China Medical System Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$8.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0867?
The net profit margin of China Medical System Holdings is about 18.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 18.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Medical System Holdings pay a dividend?
China Medical System Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.77% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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