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Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma HK$37.20, price HK$13.31, upside +179.5%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · HK · Home China · ISIN CNE100000387

GB Some data Sep 30, 2026

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma

0874 · HK

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value HK$37.20 · Strongly undervalued (+179.5%)
!Quality 53/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!6.5% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers (9/14)
!Narrow moat 25/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 26 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$21.89 HK$12.99 Fair Value HK$37.20 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$12.99 – HK$21.89 · fair‑value band HK$25.89 – HK$53.50 · the HK$13.31 price screens below the HK$37.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

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Company profile

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited engages in the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

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Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited engages in the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through Modern Chinese Medicine Business, Chemical Pharmaceutical Technology Business, Natural Beverage Business, Pharmaceutical Commercial Business, and Other segments. It is involved in the research, development, manufacturing, and sale of chemical drugs, chemical raw materials, and chemical raw material intermediates; and research, development, production, and sale of health products; and wholesale, retail, and import export of Western medicines, traditional Chinese medicines, and medical devices. The company also offers bio-innovation, consumer health, and medical services; Xiaochaihu granules; Qingkailing and Baoji, Xia Sangju product series; Angong Niuhuang, Zishen Yutai, Xiaoke, Huatuo Zaizao, Zhuangyao Jianshen, and Shujin Jianyao pills; compound Danshen and Naoxinqing tablet series; Banlangen, Compound Banlangen, and Dashen Kouyanqing granules series; and honey-processed Chuanbei and Shedan Chuanbei loquat syrup. In addition, it provides antibacterial and anti-inflammatory drugs, andrological drugs, and analgesics and antipyretics; Wanglaoji herbal tea, Ciningji series, Lixiaoji series, and Yerou coconut milk; and advertising services. Further, the company engages in the medical research industry; technology services industry; leasing and business services; and scientific research and technical services industry. It operates through hospitals, community healthcare facilities, and retail outlets through distributors and agents. The company was formerly known as Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Company Limited and changed its name to Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited in August 2013. Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Guangzhou, China.

Stock analysis

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874) currently trades at HK$13.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$37.20, implying the stock looks roughly 64.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$70.02 per share, and 15 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$13.31 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$20.89, and 0 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: HK$25.89 (bear) to HK$53.50 (bull), the price of HK$13.31 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma reported revenue of 77.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 69.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was 3.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding −5.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$21.2B (≈ $2.7B) · P/E ratio 7.1 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.77 · Dividend yield 6.5% · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 179%, 0874 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$25.89 Fair Value HK$37.20 Bull HK$53.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.6800 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$25.49 HK$27.10 HK$30.29 76
Owner Earnings HK$41.97 HK$70.02 HK$119.27 74
EPV HK$32.19 HK$35.74 HK$38.81 74
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$41.97 HK$70.02 HK$119.27 74
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$16.73 HK$87.21 HK$120.65 63
Lynch FV HK$23.90 HK$34.14 HK$44.38 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$23.90 HK$34.14 HK$44.38 57
EPV HK$32.19 HK$35.74 HK$38.81 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$40.59 HK$54.12 HK$67.64 63
P/S Multiple HK$31.36 HK$41.82 HK$52.27 58
P/B Multiple HK$31.36 HK$41.82 HK$52.27 55
EV/EBIT HK$47.86 HK$60.58 HK$73.29 66
EV/EBITDA HK$49.19 HK$62.35 HK$75.51 67
EV/Revenue HK$36.94 HK$48.61 HK$60.28 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$15.59 HK$20.89 HK$31.17 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$25.49 HK$27.10 HK$30.29 76
ROIC Compounder HK$32.78 HK$40.97 HK$49.42 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$36.57 HK$52.24 HK$67.91 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 96
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.0% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.3% vs 6.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Distribution · 78 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +179.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 6.5% · Below median
Return on assets 2.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 2.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −2.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.08× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.48× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.23× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 1.8× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.61× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 12
PAST (return on equity)26 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 58

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McKesson Corporation MCK $864.82 $822.74 −5%
Cencora, Inc COR $306.92 $215.20 −30%
Cardinal Health, Inc CAH $220.29 $162.84 −26%
Henry Schein, Inc HSIC $86.37 $76.77 −11%
Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding 601607 ¥16.02 ¥42.67 +166%
Sinopharm Group 1099 HK$14.88 HK$55.77 +275%
Galenica AG GALE CHF 82.55 CHF 61.79 −25%
Jointown Pharmaceutical Group 600998 ¥5.05 ¥9.84 +95%
China National Medicines Corporation 600511 ¥25.80 ¥58.47 +127%
Hanmi Science Co 008930 52,800 KRW 21,059 KRW −60%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0874

Frequently asked questions

Is Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$37.20 versus a price of HK$13.31, about +179% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0874?
Our model-based fair value for Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma is HK$37.20 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$13.31.
What is the quality score of 0874?
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$37.20 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$25.89, optimistic scenario HK$53.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$37.20, about +179% upside versus a price of HK$13.31 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$25.89, optimistic scenario HK$53.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 77.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma pay a dividend?
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma it is HK$37.20 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of HK$13.31. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 0874 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$13.31, fair value HK$37.20, a gap of about +179% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0874?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$13.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$37.20). For Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma the two are HK$23.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma worth?
The market values Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma at about HK$21.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is HK$13.31; our models calculate a fair value of HK$37.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0874?
Our models span a range for Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma: cautious scenario HK$25.89, base HK$37.20, optimistic HK$53.50 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price HK$13.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0874?
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.1 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$37.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 1.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 0874?
The PEG ratio of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma is 0.61 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 30, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0874 from its 52-week high?
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma trades at HK$13.31, about 30% below its 52-week high of HK$19.09 and 2% above the low of HK$12.99 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$37.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc, Cardinal Health, Inc, Henry Schein, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price HK$13.31, calculated fair value HK$37.20 (+179%), Quality Score 53/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0874 calculated?
We run Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$37.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma currently trades 64 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$13.31. Our model-based fair value is HK$37.20, about +179% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$25.89). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$25.89 to HK$53.50) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874) come from?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma grew +8.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.9 %, EBIT margin −3.3 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma

How large is the market capitalisation of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
The market capitalisation of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma is HK$21.2B (≈ $2.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma is 0.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma are HK$1.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
The dividend yield of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma is 6.5% (payout 48.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
The net margin of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
The operating margin of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
Revenue at Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma is growing −2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma are growing −55.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874) generate?
The free cash flow of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma is −954M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma (0874) carry?
The net debt of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma is 5.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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