Alstom SA (0J2R) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alstom SA €20.18, price €15.19, upside +32.8%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €10.08 – €34.24 · fair‑value band €14.12 – €23.53 · the €15.19 price screens below the €20.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Alstom SA provides solutions for rail transport industry in Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa.
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Alstom SA provides solutions for rail transport industry in Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. The company offers rolling stock solutions comprising people movers and monorails, light rails, metros, commuter and regional trains, high-speed trains, and locomotives; asset optimization, connectivity, and security and city mobility solutions; and signaling products, such as urban, mainline, and freight and mining signaling. It also provides APM, monorail, tram, metro, and main line systems; and tracklaying and track, catenary free and ground feeding, electrification, cybersecurity, and engineering consultancy solutions, as well as electromechanical equipment. In addition, the company offers rail maintenance, modernization, overhaul, parts, repair and overhauls, and support services. Further, it provides various components, including bogies, motors, dampers, brake friction products, switchgears, traction and auxiliary converters, transformers, green traction solutions, interiors, and train control and information systems. The company offers its products and solutions to original equipment manufacturers, operators, and asset owners. Alstom SA was founded in 1928 and is based in Saint-Ouen, France.
Stock analysis
Alstom SA (0J2R) currently trades at €15.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €20.18, implying the stock looks roughly 24.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of €27.15 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the €15.19 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €2.68, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €14.12 (bear) to €23.53 (bull), the price of €15.19 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alstom SA reported revenue of €8.8B in FY2021 versus €7.3B in FY2017, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was €247M in FY2021, compounding −3.8%/yr from FY2017.
Key figures
Market cap €5.1B · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) €−1.56 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% · Operating margin 3.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at 33%, 0J2R screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €14.12Fair Value €20.18Bull €23.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.9% (2017) → 3.4% (2021)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Building Products” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5266 stocks
Beats the sector median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+14.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.4% · Below median
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alstom SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0J2R
Frequently asked questions
Is Alstom SA (0J2R) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €20.18 versus a price of €15.19, about +33% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0J2R?
Our model-based fair value for Alstom SA is €20.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €15.19.
What is the quality score of 0J2R?
Alstom SA has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alstom SA (0J2R)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €20.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €14.12, optimistic scenario €23.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alstom SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €20.18, about +33% upside versus a price of €15.19 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €14.12, optimistic scenario €23.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alstom SA (0J2R)?
Alstom SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €19.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Alstom SA pay a dividend?
Alstom SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.84% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alstom SA (0J2R)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alstom SA it is €20.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €15.19. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alstom SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0J2R trades below its calculated fair value: price €15.19, fair value €20.18, a gap of about +33% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0J2R?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€15.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€20.18). For Alstom SA the two are €4.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alstom SA worth?
The market values Alstom SA at about €5.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €15.19; our models calculate a fair value of €20.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0J2R?
Our models span a range for Alstom SA: cautious scenario €14.12, base €20.18, optimistic €23.53 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €15.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alstom SA (0J2R)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alstom SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0J2R from its 52-week high?
Alstom SA trades at €15.19, about 49% below its 52-week high of €29.78 and 5% above the low of €14.49 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €20.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alstom SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value AKTR, DHABRIYA, NATFIT, SRIKPRIND, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alstom SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €15.19, calculated fair value €20.18 (+33%), Quality Score 33/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0J2R calculated?
We run Alstom SA through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €20.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alstom SA currently trades 25 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alstom SA (0J2R)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €15.19. Our model-based fair value is €20.18, about +33% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alstom SA right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Alstom SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Alstom SA (0J2R)?
The market capitalisation of Alstom SA is €5.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alstom SA (0J2R)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alstom SA is 0.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alstom SA (0J2R)?
Earnings per share at Alstom SA are €−1.56. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alstom SA (0J2R)?
The dividend yield of Alstom SA is 0.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alstom SA (0J2R)?
The net margin of Alstom SA is 2.8% (fiscal year 2021). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alstom SA (0J2R)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alstom SA is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alstom SA (0J2R)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alstom SA is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alstom SA (0J2R)?
The operating margin of Alstom SA is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alstom SA (0J2R)?
Revenue at Alstom SA is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alstom SA (0J2R)?
Earnings per share at Alstom SA are growing −29.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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