Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Lincoln National Corp. $63.77, price $40.04, upside +59.3%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.16 – $59.57 · fair‑value band $47.83 – $79.71 · the $40.04 price screens below the $63.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Life Insurance, Annuities, Group Protection, and Retirement Plan Services.
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Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Life Insurance, Annuities, Group Protection, and Retirement Plan Services. The Life Insurance segment provides life insurance products, including term insurance, universal life insurance (UL), indexed universal life insurance, variable universal life insurance (VUL), linked-benefit UL and VUL products, and critical illness and long-term care riders. Its Annuities segment offers variable, fixed, and registered index-linked annuities. The Group Protection segment offers group nonmedical insurance products consisting of short and long-term disability and administration services, statutory disability; paid family medical leave administration and absence management services; term life; life; supplemental health insurance; accident, critical illness, and hospital indemnity benefits and dental and vision products to the employer marketplace through various forms of employee-paid and employer-paid plans. Its Retirement Plan Services segment provides employers with retirement plan products and services primarily in the defined contribution retirement plan marketplace; individual and group variable annuities, group fixed annuities, and mutual fund-based programs; and various plan services, including plan recordkeeping, compliance testing, participant education, and trust and custodial services. It distributes its products through consultants, brokers, planners, agents, financial advisors, third-party administrators, financial institutions, and other intermediaries. Lincoln National Corporation was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3) currently trades at $40.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $63.77, implying the stock looks roughly 37.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $70.04 per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the $40.04 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $33.52, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $47.83 (bear) to $79.71 (bull), the price of $40.04 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Lincoln National Corp. reported revenue of $18.2B in FY2025 versus $19.2B in FY2021, a compound −1.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −4.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.5B · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) $6.94 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity 18.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% · Operating margin −4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 59%, 0JV3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $47.83Fair Value $63.77Bull $79.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.89 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.6% vs 2.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 7%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 88 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+57.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18.8% · Above median
Return on assets0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−4.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.59× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lincoln National Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0JV3
Frequently asked questions
Is Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $63.77 versus a price of $40.04, about +59% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0JV3?
Our model-based fair value for Lincoln National Corp. is $63.77 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $40.04.
What is the quality score of 0JV3?
Lincoln National Corp. has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $63.77 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $47.83, optimistic scenario $79.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lincoln National Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $63.77, about +59% upside versus a price of $40.04 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $47.83, optimistic scenario $79.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3)?
Lincoln National Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $18.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Lincoln National Corp. pay a dividend?
Lincoln National Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lincoln National Corp. it is $63.77 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $40.04. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lincoln National Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0JV3 trades below its calculated fair value: price $40.04, fair value $63.77, a gap of about +59% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0JV3?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($40.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($63.77). For Lincoln National Corp. the two are $23.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lincoln National Corp. worth?
The market values Lincoln National Corp. at about $7.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $40.04; our models calculate a fair value of $63.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0JV3?
Our models span a range for Lincoln National Corp.: cautious scenario $47.83, base $63.77, optimistic $79.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $40.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0JV3?
Lincoln National Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $63.77 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lincoln National Corp. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.8%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0JV3 from its 52-week high?
Lincoln National Corp. trades at $40.04, about 15% below its 52-week high of $46.87 and 27% above the low of $31.58 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $63.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lincoln National Corp.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lincoln National Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $40.04, calculated fair value $63.77 (+59%), Quality Score 30/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0JV3 calculated?
We run Lincoln National Corp. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $63.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lincoln National Corp. currently trades 37 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $40.04. Our model-based fair value is $63.77, about +59% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lincoln National Corp. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($47.83). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3) come from?
Earnings per share at Lincoln National Corp. grew +9.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.8 %, EBIT margin −0.8 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lincoln National Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3)?
The market capitalisation of Lincoln National Corp. is $7.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3)?
Earnings per share at Lincoln National Corp. are $6.94 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3)?
The dividend yield of Lincoln National Corp. is 4.5% (payout 25.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3)?
The net margin of Lincoln National Corp. is 6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lincoln National Corp. is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lincoln National Corp. is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3)?
The operating margin of Lincoln National Corp. is −4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3)?
Revenue at Lincoln National Corp. is growing +12.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3)?
Earnings per share at Lincoln National Corp. are growing −60.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3) generate?
The free cash flow of Lincoln National Corp. is −$167M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lincoln National Corp. (0JV3) hold?
Lincoln National Corp. holds more cash than debt, $3.1B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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