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NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of NRG Energy, Inc $62.58, price $95.33, upside -34.4%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
NRG Energy, Inc
0K4C · LSEOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $62.58 · Overvalued (−34.4%)
!Quality 54/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +27.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.7% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.9% dividend yield · Well covered
!Narrow moat 30/100
!The models disagree: range $39.30 to $117.25
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.99 – $183.63 · fair‑value band $39.30 – $117.25 · the $95.33 price screens above the $62.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments.
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NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments. The company offers retail electricity, energy management, demand response and virtual power plant programs, carbon offsets, smart home security, and automation services. It also offers system power, distributed and backup generation, energy storage, energy management, renewable and low-carbon products, and carbon management solutions for large business and commercial customers; a cloud-based home platform, including hardware, software, sales, installation, customer service, technical support, and professional monitoring solutions; and generation portfolio includes fossil fuel and renewable generation assets diversified by fuel type and dispatch level, with ongoing development of new natural gas and renewable projects. In addition, the company trades in power, natural gas, and related products; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. It offers its products and services under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint. It serves residential, commercial, government, industrial, data center, and wholesale customers. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C) currently trades at $95.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $62.58, 34.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $93.22 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the $95.33 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $23.98, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $39.30 (bear) to $117.25 (bull), the price of $95.33 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
NRG Energy, Inc reported revenue of $30.7B in FY2025 versus $26.9B in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was $864M in FY2025, compounding −20.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $19.0B · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) $16.39 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% · Operating margin 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −34%, 0K4C screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $39.30
Fair Value $62.58
Bull $117.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($11.01 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$46.15
$93.22
$172.70
76
Growth DCF
$45.45
$87.79
$156.34
75
EPV
$38.85
$47.14
$54.29
74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$46.15
$93.22
$172.70
76
Owner Earnings
$61.35
$120.38
$220.08
73
5Y Revenue Exit
$46.48
$93.58
$157.98
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
$75.61
$154.05
$253.77
73
5Y P/E Exit
$35.11
$70.00
$109.73
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$43.76
$87.99
$156.58
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$64.72
$131.47
$235.47
65
10Y P/E Exit
$38.39
$71.04
$116.84
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$20.26
$96.27
$132.44
64
Lynch FV
$25.60
$36.56
$47.53
61
PEG = 1.0
$25.60
$36.56
$47.53
57
EPV
$38.85
$47.14
$54.29
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$46.94
$62.58
$78.23
63
P/S Multiple
$38.00
$50.66
$63.33
58
P/B Multiple
$19.57
$26.09
$32.61
55
EV/EBIT
$71.86
$100.35
$128.85
66
EV/EBITDA
$99.02
$136.57
$174.13
67
EV/Revenue
$47.38
$73.53
$99.68
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.90
$3.88
$5.80
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$45.45
$87.79
$156.34
75
Rev-Margin DCF
$46.48
$92.23
$151.76
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$16.57
$23.98
$52.81
70
ROIC Compounder
$45.42
$63.36
$85.24
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$40.25
$57.50
$74.75
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
54/100
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13
Profitability
53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
36
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
4
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.5% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−11.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13.4% vs 34.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.3% a year for the price and +2.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+14.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.0%
Compare NRG Energy, Inc with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $62.58 versus a price of $95.33, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0K4C?
Our model-based fair value for NRG Energy, Inc is $62.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $95.33.
What is the quality score of 0K4C?
NRG Energy, Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $62.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $39.30, optimistic scenario $117.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NRG Energy, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $62.58, about −34% upside versus a price of $95.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $39.30, optimistic scenario $117.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
NRG Energy, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $32.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does NRG Energy, Inc pay a dividend?
NRG Energy, Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.92% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NRG Energy, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +18.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0K4C use?
Our models discount NRG Energy, Inc at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 1.20, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NRG Energy, Inc that is +18.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NRG Energy, Inc grew +27.9 % a year. The price currently implies +18.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NRG Energy, Inc (+18.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.04 %: that much free cash flow NRG Energy, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NRG Energy, Inc it is $62.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $95.33. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NRG Energy, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0K4C trades above its calculated fair value: price $95.33, fair value $62.58, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0K4C?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($95.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($62.58). For NRG Energy, Inc the two are $32.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NRG Energy, Inc worth?
The market values NRG Energy, Inc at about $19.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $95.33; our models calculate a fair value of $62.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0K4C?
Our models span a range for NRG Energy, Inc: cautious scenario $39.30, base $62.58, optimistic $117.25 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $95.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0K4C from its 52-week high?
NRG Energy, Inc trades at $95.33, about 48% below its 52-week high of $183.63 and at the low of $95.33 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $62.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NRG Energy, Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Vertiv Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NRG Energy, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $95.33, calculated fair value $62.58 (−34%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0K4C calculated?
We run NRG Energy, Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $62.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. NRG Energy, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $95.33. Our model-based fair value is $62.58, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NRG Energy, Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($39.30 to $117.25). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of NRG Energy, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
The market capitalisation of NRG Energy, Inc is $19.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of NRG Energy, Inc is 0.1 (as of Jul 25, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What are the earnings per share of NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
Earnings per share at NRG Energy, Inc are $16.39 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
The dividend yield of NRG Energy, Inc is 1.9% (payout 11.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
The net margin of NRG Energy, Inc is 2.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NRG Energy, Inc is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NRG Energy, Inc is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
The operating margin of NRG Energy, Inc is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
Revenue at NRG Energy, Inc is growing +19.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C)?
Earnings per share at NRG Energy, Inc are growing −85.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NRG Energy, Inc (0K4C) carry?
The net debt of NRG Energy, Inc is $12.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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