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ASML Holding (0QB8) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ASML Holding €1,262, price €1,650, upside -23.5%, quality 86 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Technology · GB · ISIN NL0010273215

AH Thin data Sep 28, 2026

ASML Holding

0QB8 · LSE

Great Company, Expensive PriceQuality growthHigh Quality, but the stock trades above estimated Fair Value.

!Fair value €1,262 · Overvalued (−23.5%)
✓Quality 86/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +16.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 30.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt
·0.8% dividend yield · Safety not assessed
✓Wide moat 91/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

€1,713 €383.58 Fair Value €1,262 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €383.58 – €1,713 · fair‑value band €883.52 – €1,641 · the €1,650 price screens above the €1,262 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems.

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ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

Stock analysis

ASML Holding (0QB8) currently trades at €1,650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1,262, 23.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €1,217 per share, and 2 of the 25 models we run sit above the €1,650 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €209.12, and 23 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €883.52 (bear) to €1,641 (bull), the price of €1,650 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 86/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

ASML Holding reported revenue of €14.0B in FY2020 versus €6.9B in FY2016, a compound +19.4%/yr. Reported net income was €3.7B in FY2020, compounding +22.5%/yr from FY2016.

Key figures

Market cap €229B · P/S ratio 6.49 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 26.4% · Return on equity 53.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.1% · Operating margin 37.1% · Revenue (TTM) €35.3B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 99% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −23%, 0QB8 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €883.52 Fair Value €1,262 Bull €1,641
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV €240.70 €282.26 €319.20 74
Residual Income €172.25 €209.12 €349.31 71
FCF DCF €959.29 €1,763 €3,946 70
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €959.29 €1,763 €3,946 70
5Y Revenue Exit €479.75 €806.39 €1,272 68
5Y EBITDA Exit €596.86 €1,070 €1,713 70
5Y P/E Exit €660.90 €1,225 €1,914 66
10Y Revenue Exit €607.44 €1,005 €1,587 62
10Y EBITDA Exit €701.43 €1,217 €2,066 63
10Y P/E Exit €746.68 €1,332 €2,256 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €180.82 €1,129 €1,576 61
Lynch FV €325.00 €464.28 €603.57 58
PEG = 1.0 €325.00 €464.28 €603.57 55
EPV €240.70 €282.26 €319.20 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €177.11 €386.67 €650.58 63
DDM Multi-Stage €177.11 €316.74 €402.97 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple €558.42 €744.55 €930.69 63
P/S Multiple €339.04 €452.05 €565.06 58
P/B Multiple €339.04 €452.05 €565.06 55
EV/EBIT €554.68 €737.83 €920.98 66
EV/EBITDA €471.43 €626.83 €782.24 67
EV/Revenue €283.00 €402.05 €521.10 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €55.03 €73.74 €110.06 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €929.57 €1,993 €3,889 70
Rev-Margin DCF €477.92 €784.72 €1,207 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income €172.25 €209.12 €349.31 71
ROIC Compounder €295.39 €430.18 €624.04 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €534.77 €763.96 €993.15 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 86/100

Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72

Profitability 66
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 71
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 36
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 81
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 97
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
29.1% (2016) → 30.4% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

0QB8 screens overvalued: fair value 23% below the price. Compare with Lam Research Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 214 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 86 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −63.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 53.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets 16.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 30.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 37.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 21.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.31× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/B 17.41× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 7.54× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 19.7× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Lam Research Corporation LRCX $314.47 $250.94 −20%
Applied Materials, Inc AMAT $511.38 $368.52 −28%
KLA Corporation KLAC $187.92 $160.12 −15%
Teradyne, Inc TER $415.79 $65.79 −84%
Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 ¥339.30 ¥110.10 −68%
Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 5,670 TWD 4,864 TWD −14%
Piotech Inc 688072 ¥700.90 ¥320.60 −54%
Qnity Electronics, Inc Q $124.69 $70.44 −44%
Entegris, Inc ENTG $151.89 $92.64 −39%
Hwatsing Technology Co 688120 ¥247.17 ¥92.46 −63%

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ASML Holding · Fair Value
€1,262 −23%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ASML Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0QB8

Frequently asked questions

Is ASML Holding (0QB8) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €1,262 versus a price of €1,650, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0QB8?
Our model-based fair value for ASML Holding is €1,262 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1,650.
What is the quality score of 0QB8?
ASML Holding has a Quality Score of 86/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ASML Holding (0QB8)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €1,262 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €883.52, optimistic scenario €1,641. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ASML Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €1,262, about −23% upside versus a price of €1,650 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €883.52, optimistic scenario €1,641. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ASML Holding (0QB8)?
ASML Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €35.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does ASML Holding pay a dividend?
ASML Holding currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.82% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ASML Holding (0QB8)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ASML Holding it is €1,262 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of €1,650. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ASML Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 0QB8 trades above its calculated fair value: price €1,650, fair value €1,262, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QB8?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1,650); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€1,262). For ASML Holding the two are €387.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ASML Holding worth?
The market values ASML Holding at about €229B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is €1,650; our models calculate a fair value of €1,262 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QB8?
Our models span a range for ASML Holding: cautious scenario €883.52, base €1,262, optimistic €1,641 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price €1,650). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ASML Holding (0QB8)?
Balance-sheet figures for ASML Holding (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 53.9%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 86/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0QB8 from its 52-week high?
ASML Holding trades at €1,650, about 4% below its 52-week high of €1,713 and 99% above the low of €827.68 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €1,262 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ASML Holding?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Lam Research Corporation, Applied Materials, Inc, KLA Corporation, Teradyne, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ASML Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price €1,650, calculated fair value €1,262 (−23%), Quality Score 86/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QB8 calculated?
We run ASML Holding through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €1,262, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ASML Holding itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ASML Holding (0QB8)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €1,650. Our model-based fair value is €1,262, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ASML Holding right now?
A high-quality business (quality 86/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range (€883.52 to €1,641) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of ASML Holding

How large is the market capitalisation of ASML Holding (0QB8)?
The market capitalisation of ASML Holding is €229B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ASML Holding (0QB8)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ASML Holding is 6.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of ASML Holding (0QB8)?
The dividend yield of ASML Holding is 0.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ASML Holding (0QB8)?
The net margin of ASML Holding is 26.4% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ASML Holding (0QB8)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ASML Holding is 53.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ASML Holding (0QB8)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ASML Holding is 13.1% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ASML Holding (0QB8)?
The operating margin of ASML Holding is 37.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ASML Holding (0QB8)?
Revenue at ASML Holding is growing +21.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ASML Holding (0QB8)?
Earnings per share at ASML Holding are growing +28.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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