Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Applied Materials Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $72.07 – $723.00 · fair‑value band $207.78 – $494.94 · the $444.57 price screens above the $366.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
Applied Materials, Inc. provides materials engineering solutions, equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor and related industries in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS) segments.
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Applied Materials, Inc. provides materials engineering solutions, equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor and related industries in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS) segments. The Semiconductor Systems segment includes semiconductor capital equipment to enable materials engineering steps, including etch, rapid thermal processing, deposition, chemical mechanical planarization, metrology and inspection, wafer packaging, and ion implantation. The AGS segment offers integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity comprising spares, upgrades, services, and 200 millimeter and other equipment and factory automation software for semiconductor and other products. It serves manufacturers of semiconductor wafers and chips, and other electronic devices. Applied Materials, Inc. was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Stock analysis
Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) currently trades at $444.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $366.20, implying the stock looks roughly 21.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $190.24 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $444.57 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $96.95, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $207.78 (bear) to $494.94 (bull), the price of $444.57 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Applied Materials Inc reported revenue of $28.4B in FY2025 versus $23.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was $7.0B in FY2025, compounding +4.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $460B · P/E ratio 43.1 · P/S ratio 10.6 · EPS (TTM) $10.31 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 24.7% · Return on equity 39.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 189% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −18%, AMAT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $207.78Fair Value $366.20Bull $494.94
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 11 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.48 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+21.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17% vs 23%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 29%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+21.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 211 stocks
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Is Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $366.20 versus a price of $444.57, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AMAT?
Our model-based fair value for Applied Materials Inc is $366.20 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $444.57.
What is the quality score of AMAT?
Applied Materials Inc has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $366.20 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $207.78, optimistic scenario $494.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Applied Materials Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $366.20, about −18% upside versus a price of $444.57 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $207.78, optimistic scenario $494.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
Applied Materials Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $29.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Applied Materials Inc pay a dividend?
Applied Materials Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Applied Materials Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +32.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMAT use?
Our models discount Applied Materials Inc at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.57, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Applied Materials Inc that is +32.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Applied Materials Inc grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies +32.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Applied Materials Inc (+32.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.59 %: that much free cash flow Applied Materials Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Applied Materials Inc it is $366.20 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $444.57. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Applied Materials Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, AMAT trades above its calculated fair value: price $444.57, fair value $366.20, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMAT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($444.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($366.20). For Applied Materials Inc the two are $78.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Applied Materials Inc worth?
The market values Applied Materials Inc at about $460B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $444.57; our models calculate a fair value of $366.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMAT?
Our models span a range for Applied Materials Inc: cautious scenario $207.78, base $366.20, optimistic $494.94 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $444.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AMAT?
Applied Materials Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.1 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $366.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 22.5, P/S 15.9, EV/EBITDA 49.5.
What is the PEG ratio of AMAT?
The PEG ratio of Applied Materials Inc is 1.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Applied Materials Inc (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 39.7%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMAT from its 52-week high?
Applied Materials Inc trades at $444.57, about 13% below its 52-week high of $510.75 and 189% above the low of $153.78 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $366.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Applied Materials Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Lam Research Corporation, KLA Corporation, NAURA Technology Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Applied Materials Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $444.57, calculated fair value $366.20 (−18%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMAT calculated?
We run Applied Materials Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $366.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Applied Materials Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $444.57. Our model-based fair value is $366.20, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Applied Materials Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range ($207.78 to $494.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) come from?
Earnings per share at Applied Materials Inc grew +24.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.6 %, EBIT margin +5.3 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Applied Materials Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The market capitalisation of Applied Materials Inc is $460B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Applied Materials Inc is 10.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
Earnings per share at Applied Materials Inc are $10.31 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The dividend yield of Applied Materials Inc is 0.4% (payout 18.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The net margin of Applied Materials Inc is 24.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Applied Materials Inc is 39.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Applied Materials Inc is 25.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The operating margin of Applied Materials Inc is 31.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
Revenue at Applied Materials Inc is growing +11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
Earnings per share at Applied Materials Inc are growing +33.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) hold?
Applied Materials Inc holds more cash than debt, $191M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 17, 2026