Applied Materials, Inc (AMAT) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $460B
Applied Materials, Inc
AMAT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −4.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($202.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($90.00 to $202.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $72.07 – $723.00 · fair‑value band $90.00 – $202.58 · the $527.48 price screens above the $143.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Applied Materials, Inc (AMAT) currently trades at $527.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $143.08, implying the stock looks roughly 72.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Applied Materials, Inc generated revenue of $29.0B at a net margin of 29.3%. Revenue grew 11.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 39.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $191M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $90.00 (bear case) to $202.58 (bull case); at $527.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 243% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -80% fair-value upside, at -73%, AMAT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($165.74) versus Asset-Based ($17.23). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Applied Materials, Inc. provides materials engineering solutions, equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor and related industries in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS) segments.
Full company description
Applied Materials, Inc. provides materials engineering solutions, equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor and related industries in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS) segments. The Semiconductor Systems segment includes semiconductor capital equipment to enable materials engineering steps, including etch, rapid thermal processing, deposition, chemical mechanical planarization, metrology and inspection, wafer packaging, and ion implantation. The AGS segment offers integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity comprising spares, upgrades, services, and 200 millimeter and other equipment and factory automation software for semiconductor and other products. It serves manufacturers of semiconductor wafers and chips, and other electronic devices. Applied Materials, Inc. was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Applied Materials, Inc reported revenue of $28.4B in FY2025 versus $23.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was $7.0B in FY2025, compounding +4.4%/yr from FY2021.
AMAT screens 73% overvalued. Compare with ASML Holding →
Peer Group
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 208 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML Holding ASML | C$50.50 | C$15.57 | -69% |
| Lam Research Corporation LRCX | $346.10 | $67.57 | -80% |
| KLA Corporation KLAC | $212.75 | $53.01 | -75% |
| NAURA Technology Group 002371 | ¥774.20 | ¥151.43 | -80% |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 | ¥350.69 | ¥41.79 | -88% |
| Piotech Inc 688072 | ¥832.00 | ¥431.44 | -48% |
| Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 | 6,005 TWD | 1,804 TWD | -70% |
| Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co 300604 | ¥325.24 | ¥33.33 | -90% |
| MPI Corporation 6223 | 5,600 TWD | 609.44 TWD | -89% |
| HANMI Semiconductor Co 042700 | 222,000 KRW | 38,794 KRW | -83% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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