Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $433B

A strong business, but screening 78% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($132.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The model range is unusually wide ($50.32 to $132.99). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $30.35 – $433.33 · fair‑value band $50.32 – $132.99 · the $305.77 price screens above the $67.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) currently trades at $305.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $67.57, implying the stock looks roughly 77.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 77/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Lam Research Corporation generated revenue of $21.7B at a net margin of 30.9%. Revenue grew 23.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 66.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $50.32 (bear case) to $132.99 (bull case); at $305.77, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 254% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -75% fair-value upside, at -78%, LRCX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($105.95) versus Asset-Based ($5.28). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Lam Research Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, and Europe.

Full company description

Lam Research Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, and Europe. The company offers ALTUS systems to deposit conformal or selective films for tungsten or molybdenum metallization applications; SABRE electrochemical deposition products for copper interconnect transition that offers copper damascene manufacturing; SPEED gapfill high-density plasma chemical vapor deposition (CVD) products; Striker single-wafer atomic layer deposition products for dielectric film solutions; and VECTOR plasma-enhanced CVD products. It also provides Flex for dielectric etch applications; Vantex, a dielectric etch system that provides RF technology and repeatable wafer-to-wafer performance enabled by Equipment Intelligence solutions; Kiyo for conductor etch applications; Syndion for through-silicon via etch applications; and Versys metal products for metal etch processes. In addition, the company offers Coronus bevel clean products to enhance die yield; and Da Vinci, DV-Prime, EOS, and SP series products to address various wafer cleaning applications. Further, it provides Reliant deposition, etch, and clean products; and Sense.i platform products, as well as customer service, spares, and upgrades. Lam Research Corporation was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Lam Research Corporation reported revenue of $18.4B in FY2025 versus $14.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $5.4B in FY2025, compounding +8.2%/yr from FY2021.

LRCX screens 78% overvalued. Compare with ASML Holding →

Peer Group

Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 208 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 42/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.