Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG CHF 43,371, price CHF 79,500, upside -45.5%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 60,926 – CHF 132,532 · fair‑value band CHF 24,495 – CHF 66,095 · the CHF 79,500 price screens above the CHF 43,371 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of chocolate products worldwide. The company sells its products under the Lindt, Ghirardelli, Russell Stover, Whitman's, Caffarel, Hofbauer and Küfferle, and Pangburn's, Gold Bunny, and Lindor brands.
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Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of chocolate products worldwide. The company sells its products under the Lindt, Ghirardelli, Russell Stover, Whitman's, Caffarel, Hofbauer and Küfferle, and Pangburn's, Gold Bunny, and Lindor brands. It serves customers through a network of distributors, as well as through own stores. The company was founded in 1845 and is headquartered in Kilchberg, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN) currently trades at CHF 79,500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 43,371, 45.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of CHF 54,145 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the CHF 79,500 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at CHF 13,766, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: CHF 24,495 (bear) to CHF 66,095 (bull), the price of CHF 79,500 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG reported revenue of CHF 5.9B in FY2025 versus CHF 4.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 727M in FY2025, compounding +10.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 23.6B · P/E ratio 0.5 · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) CHF 2,019 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 12.3% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −45%, 0QKN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 24,495Fair Value CHF 43,371Bull CHF 66,095
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 165.90 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.2% vs 6.9%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 17%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CHF, Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.4% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
Compare Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Food Products” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5305 stocks
Beats the sector median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−45.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−0.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.5× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)64· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)45· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0QKN
Frequently asked questions
Is Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 43,371 versus a price of CHF 79,500, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0QKN?
Our model-based fair value for Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG is CHF 43,371 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 79,500.
What is the quality score of 0QKN?
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 43,371 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 24,495, optimistic scenario CHF 66,095. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 43,371, about −45% upside versus a price of CHF 79,500 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 24,495, optimistic scenario CHF 66,095. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 5.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG pay a dividend?
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG would have to grow free cash flow by +33.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0QKN use?
Our models discount Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG that is +33.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies +33.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (+33.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.22 %: that much free cash flow Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG it is CHF 43,371 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of CHF 79,500. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 0QKN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 79,500, fair value CHF 43,371, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QKN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 79,500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 43,371). For Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG the two are CHF 36,129 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG worth?
The market values Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG at about CHF 23.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is CHF 79,500; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 43,371 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QKN?
Our models span a range for Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG: cautious scenario CHF 24,495, base CHF 43,371, optimistic CHF 66,095 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price CHF 79,500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0QKN?
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.5 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 43,371 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 15.9%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0QKN from its 52-week high?
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG trades at CHF 79,500, about 38% below its 52-week high of CHF 128,974 and at the low of CHF 79,500 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 43,371 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Goodricke Group, SOURCENTRL, B & A Limited, DILIGENT, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price CHF 79,500, calculated fair value CHF 43,371 (−45%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QKN calculated?
We run Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 43,371, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was CHF 79,500. Our model-based fair value is CHF 43,371, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 66,095). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (CHF 24,495 to CHF 66,095). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN) come from?
Earnings per share at Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG grew +7.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.9 %, EBIT margin +1.7 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
The market capitalisation of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG is CHF 23.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG is 0.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
Earnings per share at Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG are CHF 2,019 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
The dividend yield of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG is 2.3% (payout 89.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
The net margin of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG is 12.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG is 9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
The operating margin of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
Revenue at Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG is growing −0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN)?
Earnings per share at Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG are growing +4.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG (0QKN) carry?
The net debt of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG is CHF 1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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