Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Accel Group Holdings Ltd HK$0.51, price HK$1.71, upside -70.2%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.6746 – HK$1.87 · fair‑value band HK$0.3700 – HK$0.5700 · the HK$1.71 price screens above the HK$0.5100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Accel Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides electrical and mechanical engineering services in Hong Kong.
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Accel Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides electrical and mechanical engineering services in Hong Kong. It engages in the supply, installation, and maintenance of mechanical ventilation and air-conditioning systems; drainage, water supply, swimming pool, and fountain systems; and electrical and control systems, as well as smart electrical control systems in buildings. The company also produces and sells disinfection spray equipment and accessories; and offers education consultancy services. In addition, it is involved in property holding activities; construction of buildings; and recycling business. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Tsuen Wan, Hong Kong. Accel Group Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Lightspeed Limited.
Stock analysis
Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283) currently trades at HK$1.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5100, 70.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$0.9500 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$1.71 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.1900, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.3700 (bear) to HK$0.5700 (bull), the price of HK$1.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Accel Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$530M in FY2026 versus HK$547M in FY2022, a compound −0.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$44.0M in FY2026, compounding −10.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.4B (≈ $176M) · P/E ratio 34.4 · P/S ratio 2.85 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 8.3% · Return on equity 9.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −70%, 1283 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.3700Fair Value HK$0.5100Bull HK$0.5700
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0010 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.21/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−8.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.9% vs 4.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 9%
Compare Accel Group Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 803 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−70.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.0% · Above median
Return on assets4.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−15.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)34.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.70× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.60× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA24.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)36· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)21· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Accel Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1283
Frequently asked questions
Is Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5100 versus a price of HK$1.71, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1283?
Our model-based fair value for Accel Group Holdings Ltd is HK$0.5100 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.71.
What is the quality score of 1283?
Accel Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.5100 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.3700, optimistic scenario HK$0.5700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Accel Group Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.5100, about −70% upside versus a price of HK$1.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.3700, optimistic scenario HK$0.5700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
Accel Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$530M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Accel Group Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Accel Group Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Accel Group Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.5100 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.71. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Accel Group Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1283 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$1.71, fair value HK$0.5100, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1283?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.5100). For Accel Group Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Accel Group Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Accel Group Holdings Ltd at about HK$1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.71; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.5100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1283?
Our models span a range for Accel Group Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.3700, base HK$0.5100, optimistic HK$0.5700 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1283?
Accel Group Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.5100 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 24.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
Balance-sheet figures for Accel Group Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 9.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1283 from its 52-week high?
Accel Group Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.71, about 9% below its 52-week high of HK$1.87 and 28% above the low of HK$1.34 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.5100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Accel Group Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Accel Group Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.71, calculated fair value HK$0.5100 (−70%), Quality Score 52/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1283 calculated?
We run Accel Group Holdings Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.5100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Accel Group Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.71. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.5100, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Accel Group Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.5700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283) come from?
Earnings per share at Accel Group Holdings Ltd grew +4.7 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.0 %, EBIT margin −6.6 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Accel Group Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
The market capitalisation of Accel Group Holdings Ltd is HK$1.4B (≈ $176M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Accel Group Holdings Ltd is 2.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
Earnings per share at Accel Group Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
The dividend yield of Accel Group Holdings Ltd is 1.1% (payout 90.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
The net margin of Accel Group Holdings Ltd is 8.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Accel Group Holdings Ltd is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Accel Group Holdings Ltd is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
The operating margin of Accel Group Holdings Ltd is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
Revenue at Accel Group Holdings Ltd is growing −15.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283)?
Earnings per share at Accel Group Holdings Ltd are growing −18.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283) generate?
The free cash flow of Accel Group Holdings Ltd is −HK$16.2M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Accel Group Holdings Ltd (1283) hold?
Accel Group Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$50.5M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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