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Jiashili Group Ltd (1285) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Jiashili Group Ltd HK$4.68, price HK$1.56, upside +200.0%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Defensive · HK · ISIN KYG513761042

JG Thin data Sep 28, 2026

Jiashili Group Ltd

1285 · HK

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value HK$4.68 · Strongly undervalued (+200.0%)
✓Quality 61/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓8.7% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Ranks above peers (11/14)
!Narrow moat 42/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$1.68 HK$0.6421 Fair Value HK$4.68 Dec 2017 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.6421 – HK$1.68 · fair‑value band HK$3.63 – HK$6.09 · the HK$1.56 price screens below the HK$4.68 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Jiashili Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing and sale of biscuits in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Biscuit Products, Pasta Products, Flour Products, and Others.

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Jiashili Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing and sale of biscuits in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Biscuit Products, Pasta Products, Flour Products, and Others. It offers sweet and salty single piece, sandwich, coarse grain, and other biscuits, as well as wafers; spaghetti and macaroni pasta; flour; and other grocery products, including candies, bread, and mooncakes under the Jiasili and other brand names. The company is also involved in the leasing of factory building; lending; marketing business; manufacturing and sale of soymilk, wheat, and liquor; trading of rice; and provision of hotel services. It exports its products. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Kaiping, China. Jiashili Group Limited operates as a subsidiary of Kaiyuan Investments Limited.

Stock analysis

Jiashili Group Ltd (1285) currently trades at HK$1.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.68, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$6.30 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$1.56 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.67, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$3.63 (bear) to HK$6.09 (bull), the price of HK$1.56 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

Jiashili Group Ltd reported revenue of 1.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 109M CNY in FY2025, compounding −1.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$647M (≈ $82.5M) · P/E ratio 3.3 · P/S ratio 0.22 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0300 · Dividend yield 8.7% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 92% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 200%, 1285 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$3.63 Fair Value HK$4.68 Bull HK$6.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$4.59 HK$5.89 HK$7.47 82
Growth DCF HK$4.61 HK$5.75 HK$7.06 80
Owner Earnings HK$5.02 HK$6.48 HK$8.23 78
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$4.59 HK$5.89 HK$7.47 82
Owner Earnings HK$5.02 HK$6.48 HK$8.23 78
5Y Revenue Exit HK$4.40 HK$6.12 HK$8.25 73
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.65 HK$8.41 HK$11.56 75
5Y P/E Exit HK$4.87 HK$6.99 HK$9.15 71
10Y Revenue Exit HK$4.36 HK$5.78 HK$7.57 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.12 HK$7.13 HK$9.69 69
10Y P/E Exit HK$4.70 HK$6.30 HK$8.15 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.08 HK$5.81 HK$7.64 65
Lynch FV HK$1.17 HK$1.67 HK$2.17 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.17 HK$1.67 HK$2.17 57
EPV HK$3.07 HK$3.33 HK$3.54 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$4.83 HK$6.44 HK$8.05 63
P/S Multiple HK$3.91 HK$5.21 HK$6.51 58
P/B Multiple HK$3.91 HK$5.21 HK$6.51 55
EV/EBIT HK$5.90 HK$7.58 HK$9.25 66
EV/EBITDA HK$7.29 HK$9.44 HK$11.58 67
EV/Revenue HK$4.46 HK$6.00 HK$7.54 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.46 HK$1.95 HK$2.91 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$4.61 HK$5.75 HK$7.06 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$4.40 HK$6.16 HK$8.14 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.36 HK$2.54 HK$2.86 76
ROIC Compounder HK$3.09 HK$3.45 HK$3.83 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$3.85 HK$5.50 HK$7.15 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 93
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +7.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.2% vs 1.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 70% above its own trend.

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.9% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 659 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside +200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10.3% · Above median
Return on assets 3.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 6.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 13.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −11.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 8.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.14× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.54× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.34× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 3.8× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 1.2× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 19
PAST (return on equity)41 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)93 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 59

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé S.A NESN CHF 77.17 CHF 59.51 −23%
Danone S.A BN €59.56 €50.65 −15%
Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 ¥33.93 ¥37.32 +10%
The Kraft Heinz Company KHC $23.63 $29.20 +24%
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,363 ₹724.74 −47%
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 ¥26.90 ¥41.84 +56%
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 ¥24.55 ¥9.98 −59%
General Mills, Inc GIS $33.64 $34.59 +3%
Wilmar International Limited F34 3.68 SGD 5.14 SGD +40%
Kerry Group KRZ €85.55 €59.96 −30%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Jiashili Group Ltd (1285) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.68 versus a price of HK$1.56, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1285?
Our model-based fair value for Jiashili Group Ltd is HK$4.68 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.56.
What is the quality score of 1285?
Jiashili Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.68 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.63, optimistic scenario HK$6.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiashili Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.68, about +200% upside versus a price of HK$1.56 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.63, optimistic scenario HK$6.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
Jiashili Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Jiashili Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Jiashili Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jiashili Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -8.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.4 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1285 use?
Our models discount Jiashili Group Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jiashili Group Ltd that is -8.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jiashili Group Ltd (1285) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jiashili Group Ltd grew +1.4 % a year. The price currently implies -8.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jiashili Group Ltd (-8.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 26.28 %: that much free cash flow Jiashili Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiashili Group Ltd it is HK$4.68 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of HK$1.56. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jiashili Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 1285 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.56, fair value HK$4.68, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1285?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.68). For Jiashili Group Ltd the two are HK$3.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiashili Group Ltd worth?
The market values Jiashili Group Ltd at about HK$647M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.56; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1285?
Our models span a range for Jiashili Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$3.63, base HK$4.68, optimistic HK$6.09 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price HK$1.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1285?
Jiashili Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.3 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$4.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 1.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiashili Group Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 10.3%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1285 from its 52-week high?
Jiashili Group Ltd trades at HK$1.56, about 7% below its 52-week high of HK$1.68 and 92% above the low of HK$0.8133 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiashili Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiashili Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price HK$1.56, calculated fair value HK$4.68 (+200%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1285 calculated?
We run Jiashili Group Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Jiashili Group Ltd currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was HK$1.56. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.68, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiashili Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$3.63). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285) come from?
Earnings per share at Jiashili Group Ltd grew −2.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.5 %, EBIT margin −4.5 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Jiashili Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
The market capitalisation of Jiashili Group Ltd is HK$647M (≈ $82.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiashili Group Ltd is 0.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
Earnings per share at Jiashili Group Ltd are HK$0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
The dividend yield of Jiashili Group Ltd is 8.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
The net margin of Jiashili Group Ltd is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiashili Group Ltd is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiashili Group Ltd is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
The operating margin of Jiashili Group Ltd is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
Revenue at Jiashili Group Ltd is growing −11.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jiashili Group Ltd (1285)?
Earnings per share at Jiashili Group Ltd are growing +195% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Jiashili Group Ltd (1285) carry?
The net debt of Jiashili Group Ltd is 272M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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