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Shanghai Pioneer Holding (1345) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$2.7B

SP Shanghai Pioneer Holding 1345 · HK
PriceHK$2.20
Fair ValueHK$2.28
Upside+3.6%
Quality73/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 8.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.65% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Narrow moat 44/100
Evidence: High Range HK$1.74 – HK$3.05 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Share price −5.6% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from HK$1.74 (bear) to HK$3.05 (bull), base HK$2.28. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 73/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$2.42 HK$0.6681 Fair Value HK$2.28 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.6681 – HK$2.42 · fair‑value band HK$1.74 – HK$3.05 · the HK$2.20 price screens below the HK$2.28 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Shanghai Pioneer Holding (1345) currently trades at HK$2.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.28, implying the stock looks roughly 3.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Pioneer Holding generated revenue of HK$1.3B at a net margin of 8.9%. Revenue declined 10.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$69.3M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.74 (bear case) to HK$3.05 (bull case); at HK$2.20, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 4%, 1345 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$1.70 HK$2.22 HK$3.10 80
Residual Income HK$0.8000 HK$0.9000 HK$1.49 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.33 HK$1.85 HK$2.49 74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.64 HK$2.17 HK$3.16 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.08 HK$1.43 HK$2.06 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.33 HK$1.81 HK$2.51 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.53 HK$2.15 HK$2.99 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.56 HK$2.21 HK$2.99 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.41 HK$1.79 HK$2.20 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.56 HK$2.00 HK$2.48 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.58 HK$2.04 HK$2.48 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.6700 HK$0.8900 HK$1.02 54
EPV HK$0.8800 HK$1.00 HK$1.10 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.63 HK$2.17 HK$2.71 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.26 HK$1.68 HK$2.10 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.26 HK$1.68 HK$2.10 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.66 HK$2.17 HK$2.69 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.68 HK$2.20 HK$2.73 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.22 HK$1.69 HK$2.16 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4500 HK$0.6100 HK$0.9100 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.70 HK$2.22 HK$3.10 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.33 HK$1.85 HK$2.49 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.8000 HK$0.9000 HK$1.49 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.8800 HK$1.01 HK$1.15 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.15 HK$1.64 HK$2.13 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.00) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.6100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) -10.8%
Net margin 8.9%
Return on equity 9.7%
Free cash flow HK$189M FY2025
P/E ratio 19.2 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 11.4%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0400
Dividend yield 4.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +20.2%
Net cash HK$69.3M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 73/100

Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 87
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 61
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Shanghai Pioneer Holding Ltd, an investment holding company, engages in marketing, promotion, and channel management of pharmaceutical products and medical devices primarily in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Shanghai Pioneer Holding Ltd, an investment holding company, engages in marketing, promotion, and channel management of pharmaceutical products and medical devices primarily in the People's Republic of China. It offers pharmaceutical products for ophthalmology, pain management, cardiovascular, immunology, gynecology, gastroenterology, and other therapeutic areas; and medical devices, including ophthalmology, orthopedics, odontology, and wound care products. The company also engages in the sale of ancillary tools, and imported in-licensed prescription products, as well as accessories leasing; research and development of denture and implants dentistry; sale of household appliances; and provision of metal finishing, management consulting, information consulting, and market information services. It sells its products to hospitals, medical institutions, and pharmacies. The company was formerly known as China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Limited. Shanghai Pioneer Holding Ltd was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China. Shanghai Pioneer Holding Ltd is a subsidiary of Pioneer Pharma (BVI) Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shanghai Pioneer Holding reported revenue of HK$1.3B in FY2025 versus HK$1.4B in FY2021, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$114M in FY2025, compounding −5.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.3B
Latest YoY
−16.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.7%
Avg. growth/yr (15Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.6%
Revenue −2.7%/yr
FY21 HK$1.4B
FY22 HK$1.6B
FY23 HK$1.6B
FY24 HK$1.5B
FY25 HK$1.3B
Net income −5.4%/yr
FY21 HK$143M
FY22 HK$235M
FY23 HK$146M
FY24 HK$152M
FY25 HK$114M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −4.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +0.3 pp

of which total revenue −1.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.3 pp

EBIT margin −4.8 pp
Tax rate −1.8 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Shanghai Pioneer Holding · Fair Value
HK$2.28 +4%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai Pioneer Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1345

Peer Group

Pharmaceutical Retailers · 62 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +4% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -11% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.7% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.06× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Pharmaceutical Retailers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.54× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.08× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 14.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 38 · sector 23
FUTURE 0 · sector 18
PAST 39 · sector 16
HEALTH 97 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 93 · sector 63

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Pharmaceutical Retailers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
JD Health International Inc 6618 HK$38.86 HK$33.31 -14%
Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited 0241 HK$3.33 HK$2.04 -39%
Raia Drogasil S.A RADL3 R$18.00 R$15.58 -13%
Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co 603939 ¥24.03 ¥29.07 +21%
DaShenLin Pharmaceutical Group 603233 ¥18.14 ¥23.86 +32%
Corporativo Fragua, S.A. FRAGUAB 463.00 MXN 726.02 MXN +57%
LBX Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company 603883 ¥13.44 ¥10.57 -21%
MedPlus Health Services Limited MEDPLUS ₹675.05 ₹379.25 -44%
Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group 002727 ¥12.29 ¥9.45 -23%
Anhui Huaren Health Pharmaceutical Co 301408 ¥16.51 ¥10.05 -39%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shanghai Pioneer Holding (1345) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.28 versus a price of HK$2.20, about +4% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1345?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Pioneer Holding is HK$2.28 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$2.20.
What is the quality score of 1345?
Shanghai Pioneer Holding has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Pioneer Holding (1345)?
Shanghai Pioneer Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1345?
The net profit margin of Shanghai Pioneer Holding is about 8.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shanghai Pioneer Holding pay a dividend?
Shanghai Pioneer Holding currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.65% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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