China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd HK$2.02, price HK$2.12, upside -4.7%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.7492 – HK$2.42 · fair‑value band HK$1.63 – HK$2.61 · the HK$2.12 price screens above the HK$2.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Shanghai Pioneer Holding Ltd, an investment holding company, engages in marketing, promotion, and channel management of pharmaceutical products and medical devices primarily in the People's Republic of China.
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Shanghai Pioneer Holding Ltd, an investment holding company, engages in marketing, promotion, and channel management of pharmaceutical products and medical devices primarily in the People's Republic of China. It offers pharmaceutical products for ophthalmology, pain management, cardiovascular, immunology, gynecology, gastroenterology, and other therapeutic areas; and medical devices, including ophthalmology, orthopedics, odontology, and wound care products. The company also engages in the sale of ancillary tools, and imported in-licensed prescription products, as well as accessories leasing; research and development of denture and implants dentistry; sale of household appliances; and provision of metal finishing, management consulting, information consulting, and market information services. It sells its products to hospitals, medical institutions, and pharmacies. The company was formerly known as China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Limited. Shanghai Pioneer Holding Ltd was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China. Shanghai Pioneer Holding Ltd is a subsidiary of Pioneer Pharma (BVI) Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345) currently trades at HK$2.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.02, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$2.15 per share, and 9 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$2.12 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.7100, and 13 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.63 (bear) to HK$2.61 (bull), the price of HK$2.12 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 1.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was 114M CNY in FY2025, compounding −5.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.7B (≈ $340M) · P/E ratio 19.2 · P/S ratio 1.71 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0400 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 8.9% · Return on equity 9.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −5%, 1345 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.63Fair Value HK$2.02Bull HK$2.61
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.3% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.9% vs −6.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.6% a year for the price.
Compare China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Pharmaceutical Retailers · 59 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−4.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.7% · Above median
Return on assets6.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Pharmaceutical Retailers median · lower = cheaper
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Is China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.02 versus a price of HK$2.12, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1345?
Our model-based fair value for China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd is HK$2.02 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.12.
What is the quality score of 1345?
China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.02 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.63, optimistic scenario HK$2.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.02, about −5% upside versus a price of HK$2.12 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$1.63, optimistic scenario HK$2.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +2.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.7 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1345 use?
Our models discount China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd that is +2.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd grew -0.7 % a year. The price currently implies +2.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (+2.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.03 %: that much free cash flow China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd it is HK$2.02 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$2.12. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1345 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$2.12, fair value HK$2.02, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1345?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.02). For China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.1000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd at about HK$2.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.12; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1345?
Our models span a range for China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.63, base HK$2.02, optimistic HK$2.61 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$2.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1345?
China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.02 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 12.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 9.7%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1345 from its 52-week high?
China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd trades at HK$2.12, about 9% below its 52-week high of HK$2.34 and 14% above the low of HK$1.85 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited, Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co, DaShenLin Pharmaceutical Group, LBX Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$2.12, calculated fair value HK$2.02 (−5%), Quality Score 73/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1345 calculated?
We run China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$2.12. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.02, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345) come from?
Earnings per share at China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd grew −4.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.3 %, EBIT margin −4.8 %, tax rate −1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
The market capitalisation of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd is HK$2.7B (≈ $340M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd is 1.71 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
Earnings per share at China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
The dividend yield of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd is 5.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
The net margin of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd is 8.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd is 12.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
The operating margin of China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
Revenue at China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd is growing −10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345)?
Earnings per share at China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd are growing +20.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd (1345) hold?
China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 69.3M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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