Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp TWD 17.19, price TWD 24.30, upside -29.3%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 11.00 TWD – 31.70 TWD · fair‑value band 14.43 TWD – 21.49 TWD · the 24.30 TWD price screens above the 17.19 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shinkong Synthetic Fibers Corporation researches for, manufactures, and sells polyester chips and polyester films in Asia.
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Shinkong Synthetic Fibers Corporation researches for, manufactures, and sells polyester chips and polyester films in Asia. The company's products primarily include partially oriented yarns, polyester filament yarns, fully drawn yarns, polyester staple fibers, polyester draw textured yarns, industrial yarns, polyester pellets, PET bottle grade resins, PET bottles, PET bottle preforms, engineering polymers, optical films, polyester films, and A-PET sheets. It also offers synthetic resins, plastic products; chemical fiber weaving, printing, and dyeing services; and leasing, investment, human resources management and securities investment consulting, and life and property insurance agency services, as well as electronic information software. In addition, the company manufactures magnetic tapes for recording and video disks, and polyester films; manufactures synthetic fibers; and manufactures electronic parts and components, and precision chemical materials, as well as engages in the wholesale and retail sale of textile products. Further, the company is involved in the precision chemical materials and mold manufacturing wholesale; consignment trading of securities and futures; and sale and rental of housing and building development projects; and provision of consulting, biotechnology research, and development services. Additionally, it contracts for air pollution prevention, piping engineering and machine installation projects; provides real estate development and leasing services. It serves textiles, food, packaging, electronics, and optronics industries. The company was founded in 1967 and is based in Taipei City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409) currently trades at 24.30 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 17.19 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 41.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 23.37 TWD per share, and 8 of the 22 models we run sit above the 24.30 TWD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 14.91 TWD, and 14 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 14.43 TWD (bear) to 21.49 TWD (bull), the price of 24.30 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp reported revenue of 37.5B TWD in FY2025 versus 43.6B TWD in FY2021, a compound −3.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.9B TWD in FY2025, compounding −16.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 50.6B TWD (≈ $1.6B) · P/E ratio 20.4 · P/S ratio 1.05 · EPS (TTM) 1.19 TWD · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −29%, 1409 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 14.43 TWDFair Value 17.19 TWDBull 21.49 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2121 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs 7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.5% a year for the price.
Compare Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Textile Manufacturing · 344 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−29% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Textile Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.4× · Pricier than median
P/B1.22× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.30× · Pricier than median
P/FCF0.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA7.4× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.22× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)21· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)74· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)74· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 17.19 TWD versus a price of 24.30 TWD, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1409?
Our model-based fair value for Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp is 17.19 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 24.30 TWD.
What is the quality score of 1409?
Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 17.19 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 14.43 TWD, optimistic scenario 21.49 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 17.19 TWD, about −29% upside versus a price of 24.30 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 14.43 TWD, optimistic scenario 21.49 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 39.0B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp pay a dividend?
Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.70% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +26.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1409 use?
Our models discount Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp that is +26.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp grew +3.2 % a year. The price currently implies +26.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (+26.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.62 %: that much free cash flow Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp it is 17.19 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 24.30 TWD. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1409 trades above its calculated fair value: price 24.30 TWD, fair value 17.19 TWD, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1409?
No. The price is what the market pays today (24.30 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (17.19 TWD). For Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp the two are 7.11 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp worth?
The market values Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp at about 50.6B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 24.30 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 17.19 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1409?
Our models span a range for Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp: cautious scenario 14.43 TWD, base 17.19 TWD, optimistic 21.49 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 24.30 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1409?
Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 17.19 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 7.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 1409?
The PEG ratio of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp is 0.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1409 from its 52-week high?
Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp trades at 24.30 TWD, about 23% below its 52-week high of 31.70 TWD and 85% above the low of 13.15 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 17.19 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Shenzhou International Group, Tongkun Group, Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co, K.P.R. Mill Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 24.30 TWD, calculated fair value 17.19 TWD (−29%), Quality Score 30/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1409 calculated?
We run Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 17.19 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 24.30 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 17.19 TWD, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (21.49 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409) come from?
Earnings per share at Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp grew +4.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.3 %, EBIT margin +11.2 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
The market capitalisation of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp is 50.6B TWD (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp is 1.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
Earnings per share at Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp are 1.19 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
The dividend yield of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp is 3.7% (payout 75.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
The net margin of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp is 5.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
The operating margin of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
Revenue at Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp is growing −2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409)?
Earnings per share at Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp are growing +58.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp (1409) carry?
The net debt of Shinkong Synthetic Fiber Corp is 48.4B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 26.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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