Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd (1515) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$3.0B (≈ $387M) · ISIN KYG2133W1087

What is Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd really worth?

PH Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd 1515 · HK

PriceHK$2.52

Fair ValueHK$7.75

Upside+207.5%

Quality56/100

A solid business, trading 67% below our fair value of HK$7.75.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd is HK$7.75 per share against a price of HK$2.52, so the fair value sits 208% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓Ranks above peers (9/13)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +27.2 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 5.4% net margin

!Narrow moat 32/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on past: 29 out of 100

For context

·5.32% dividend yield

Evidence: Low Range HK$5.82 – HK$9.69

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price −1.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$5.82). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.31 – HK$9.67 · fair‑value band HK$5.82 – HK$9.69 · the HK$2.52 price screens below the HK$7.75 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd (1515) currently trades at HK$2.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.75, implying the stock looks roughly 67.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$15.56 per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$2.52 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$2.00, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$9.2B at a net margin of 5.4%. Revenue declined 4.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$178M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$5.82 (bear case) to HK$9.69 (bull case); at HK$2.52, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at 208%, 1515 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0928 per share, which is 1.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF HK$10.89 HK$17.17 HK$35.04 76

Residual Income HK$4.21 HK$4.45 HK$4.81 76

Growth DCF HK$10.38 HK$18.75 HK$34.32 75

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$10.89 HK$17.17 HK$35.04 76

Owner Earnings HK$7.47 HK$15.56 HK$31.93 71

5Y Revenue Exit HK$6.01 HK$9.25 HK$15.44 71

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$9.56 HK$16.88 HK$30.30 72

5Y P/E Exit HK$8.24 HK$15.41 HK$24.56 69

10Y Revenue Exit HK$7.35 HK$12.16 HK$16.92 66

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$9.92 HK$18.82 HK$34.94 65

10Y P/E Exit HK$9.01 HK$16.35 HK$28.72 61

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$2.67 HK$18.60 HK$26.10 63

Lynch FV HK$5.68 HK$8.11 HK$10.54 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$5.68 HK$8.11 HK$10.54 57

EPV HK$2.48 HK$2.74 HK$2.96 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$1.16 HK$2.31 HK$3.50 67

DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.16 HK$2.00 HK$2.44 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$6.47 HK$8.63 HK$10.79 63

P/S Multiple HK$5.00 HK$6.67 HK$8.33 58

P/B Multiple HK$5.00 HK$6.67 HK$8.33 55

EV/EBIT HK$5.08 HK$6.50 HK$7.92 66

EV/EBITDA HK$9.18 HK$11.97 HK$14.76 67

EV/Revenue HK$3.86 HK$5.16 HK$6.46 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$2.59 HK$3.47 HK$5.18 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$10.38 HK$18.75 HK$34.32 75

Rev-Margin DCF HK$6.01 HK$9.95 HK$15.82 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$4.21 HK$4.45 HK$4.81 76

ROIC Compounder HK$2.48 HK$2.74 HK$2.96 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$7.84 HK$11.21 HK$14.57 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$15.56) versus Dividend Discount (HK$2.00). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 5.3 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 0.29 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.2700 price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.3

Dividend yield 5.3% payout 49.6%

Net margin 5.4% FY2025

Return on equity 7.2% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% avg 5y

Operating margin 4.1% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$9.2B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) −4.7% 3y avg +5.1%

EPS growth (YoY) +15.0%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$844M FY2025

Net cash HK$178M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 35

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 25

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 62

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 51

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 93

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 88

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 24

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 6

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 81

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

China Resources Medical Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, provides general healthcare, hospital management, and other hospital-related services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through two segments Hospital and Other Business. The Hospital segment offers out-patient and in-patient business corresponding to self-owned hospitals. The Other Business segment offers operation management services, supply chain services, and other services to participating hospitals and IOT/OT hospitals. The company manages and operates third-party hospitals and clinics under the IOT model. In addition, it sells pharmaceuticals, medical devices, medical consumables, and non-medical supply. The company was formerly known as China Resources Phoenix Healthcare Holdings Company Limited and changed its name to China Resources Medical Holdings Company Limited in October 2018. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd reported revenue of 9.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +19.8%/yr. Reported net income was 496M CNY in FY2025, compounding +4.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 84/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$9.2B

Latest YoY

−6.9%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+5.1%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+27.2%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (15Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+23.3%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

≈ +10.0% (approximate, leans on 2025) · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share+4.7%

Dividend yield5.3%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 4.7% vs 10Y 5.0%, steady

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10.1% (2020) → 4.6% (2025) · falling

Worst earnings drop704% (2016) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD

⚠ Rate leans on 2025: that final year sits 86% above its own trend (e.g. a one-off disposal gain) and could not be adjusted

Revenue +19.8%/yr

FY21 4.4B CNY

FY22 7.9B CNY

FY23 10.1B CNY

FY24 9.9B CNY

FY25 9.2B CNY

Net income +4.4%/yr

FY21 418M CNY

FY22 266M CNY

FY23 258M CNY

FY24 566M CNY

FY25 496M CNY

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +4.0 % p.a.

Revenue per share +18.3 %

of which total revenue +23.7 % · buybacks/dilution −4.4 %

EBIT margin −7.8 %

Tax rate −0.1 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) −4.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$7.75 +67%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1515.HK" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$7.75</b> <span style="color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+67%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1515.HK

Peer Group

Medical Care Facilities · 257 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Above median

Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Below median

Return on assets 2% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median

Revenue growth −5% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 5.3% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 0.46× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 0.33× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/FCF 0.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

EV/EBITDA 2.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 22

FUTURE0 · sector 26

PAST29 · sector 30

HEALTH100 · sector 90

DIVIDEND100 · sector 42

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA	$417.82	$547.67	+31%
Fresenius SE FRE	€45.25	€32.15	−29%
Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013	241.00 SAR	112.37 SAR	−53%
IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F	2.67 SGD	1.44 SGD	−46%
Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC	$266.80	$330.25	+24%
DaVita Inc DVA	$180.68	$186.49	+3%
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP	₹8,818	₹2,955	−66%
Fresenius Medical Care AG FME	€39.92	€71.28	+79%
Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015	¥8.25	¥7.67	−7%
Max Healthcare Institute Limited MAXHEALTH	₹1,005	₹284.87	−72%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd (1515) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$7.75 versus a price of HK$2.52, about +208% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 1515?

Our model-based fair value for Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd is HK$7.75 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.52.

What is the quality score of 1515?

Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd (1515)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$7.75 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.82, optimistic scenario HK$9.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$7.75, about +208% upside versus a price of HK$2.52 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$5.82, optimistic scenario HK$9.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd (1515)?

Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$9.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 1515?

The net profit margin of Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd is about 5.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd pay a dividend?

Phoenix Healthcare Grp Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.32% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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