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New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd (1518) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$205M

NC New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd 1518 · HK
PriceHK$0.2700
Fair ValueHK$0.3900
Upside+44.4%
Quality44/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -19.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
Narrow moat 10/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.3100 – HK$0.4700 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 17, 2026

From 9 valuation models · updated today

Share price −18.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 44% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.3100). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$1.60 HK$0.2600 Fair Value HK$0.3900 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2600 – HK$1.60 · fair‑value band HK$0.3100 – HK$0.4700 · the HK$0.2700 price screens below the HK$0.3900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.

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Analysis

New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd (1518) currently trades at HK$0.2700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3900, implying the stock looks roughly 44.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$600M at a net margin of -19.2%. Revenue declined 31.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -23.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$64.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.3100 (bear case) to HK$0.4700 (bull case); at HK$0.2700, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 44%, 1518 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.6100 HK$0.6400 HK$0.6700 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.6100 HK$0.6800 HK$0.7400 74
Gordon GGM HK$0.1500 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2600 70
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.6000 HK$0.6400 HK$0.6800 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.6100 HK$0.6700 HK$0.7500 39
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.6000 HK$0.6500 HK$0.7100 36
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.1500 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2600 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.1500 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2500 61
Multiples
EV/Revenue HK$0.6300 HK$0.6900 HK$0.7600 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4400 HK$0.5900 HK$0.8800 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.6100 HK$0.6400 HK$0.6700 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.6100 HK$0.6800 HK$0.7400 74

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$0.6900) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.2000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$600M
Revenue growth (YoY) -31.3%
Net margin -19.2%
Return on equity -23.0%
Free cash flow HK$8.3M FY2025
Operating margin -3.7%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) HK$-0.1400
EPS growth (YoY) -63.7%
Net cash HK$64.0M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 21
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 72
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

New Century Healthcare Holding Co. Limited, an investment holding company, provides healthcare services to women and children in the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: Pediatric Services; Obstetrics and Gynecology Services; and Other. It provides pediatric, obstetric, gynecologic services, and hospital consulting services.

Full company description

New Century Healthcare Holding Co. Limited, an investment holding company, provides healthcare services to women and children in the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: Pediatric Services; Obstetrics and Gynecology Services; and Other. It provides pediatric, obstetric, gynecologic services, and hospital consulting services. The company also provides online healthcare services, as well as operates cafeterias and gift shops at its medical institutions. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$600M in FY2025 versus HK$633M in FY2021, a compound −1.3%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$115M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$600M
Latest YoY
−29.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.2%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.0%
Revenue −1.3%/yr
FY21 HK$633M
FY22 HK$636M
FY23 HK$933M
FY24 HK$846M
FY25 HK$600M
Net income
FY21 −HK$101M
FY22 −HK$298M
FY23 HK$84.2M
FY24 HK$47.4M
FY25 −HK$115M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +0.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +12.2 pp

of which total revenue +12.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp

EBIT margin −8.2 pp
Tax rate −1.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1518

Peer Group

Medical Care Facilities · 266 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +44% · Top 25%
Return on assets -1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -19% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -4% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -31% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.3% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.06× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.04× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 3.2× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 93 · sector 26
FUTURE 0 · sector 23
PAST 0 · sector 29
HEALTH 100 · sector 90
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd (1518) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3900 versus a price of HK$0.2700, about +44% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1518?
Our model-based fair value for New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd is HK$0.3900 (as of Aug 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.2700.
What is the quality score of 1518?
New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd (1518)?
New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$600M (latest available figure, as of Aug 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1518?
The net profit margin of New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd is about -19.2%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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