New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd (1518) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$205M
Fair value as of: Aug 17, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated today
Share price −18.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 44% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.3100). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2600 – HK$1.60 · fair‑value band HK$0.3100 – HK$0.4700 · the HK$0.2700 price screens below the HK$0.3900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.
Analysis
New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd (1518) currently trades at HK$0.2700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3900, implying the stock looks roughly 44.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$600M at a net margin of -19.2%. Revenue declined 31.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -23.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$64.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.3100 (bear case) to HK$0.4700 (bull case); at HK$0.2700, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 44%, 1518 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$0.6900) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.2000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
New Century Healthcare Holding Co. Limited, an investment holding company, provides healthcare services to women and children in the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: Pediatric Services; Obstetrics and Gynecology Services; and Other. It provides pediatric, obstetric, gynecologic services, and hospital consulting services.
Full company description
New Century Healthcare Holding Co. Limited, an investment holding company, provides healthcare services to women and children in the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: Pediatric Services; Obstetrics and Gynecology Services; and Other. It provides pediatric, obstetric, gynecologic services, and hospital consulting services. The company also provides online healthcare services, as well as operates cafeterias and gift shops at its medical institutions. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
New Century Healthcare Holding Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$600M in FY2025 versus HK$633M in FY2021, a compound −1.3%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$115M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +12.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch 1518: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Medical Care Facilities · 266 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA | $414.59 | $547.67 | +32% |
| Fresenius SE FRE | €46.82 | €32.15 | -31% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 235.00 SAR | 112.37 SAR | -52% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F | 2.67 SGD | 1.44 SGD | -46% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $266.79 | $330.25 | +24% |
| Rede D'Or São Luiz S.A RDOR3 | R$33.97 | R$47.31 | +39% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,565 | ₹2,955 | -65% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥8.87 | ¥7.67 | -14% |
| Max Healthcare Institute Limited MAXHEALTH | ₹1,008 | ₹284.87 | -72% |
| Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company BDMS | 19.70 THB | 18.57 THB | -6% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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