Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd HK$0.04, price HK$0.22, upside -81.6%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0210 – HK$0.4450 · the HK$0.2170 price screens above the HK$0.0400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Kin Shing Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in erecting formworks for construction works in private residential and commercial buildings in Hong Kong. It provides timber formworks by using timber and plywood; and metal formwork system by using aluminium and other metals.
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Kin Shing Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in erecting formworks for construction works in private residential and commercial buildings in Hong Kong. It provides timber formworks by using timber and plywood; and metal formwork system by using aluminium and other metals. The company also engages in building construction works, and securities investment business. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Cheung Sha Wan, Hong Kong. Kin Shing Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Five Continental Enterprise Limited.
Stock analysis
Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630) currently trades at HK$0.2170, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0400, 81.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.1600 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$0.2170 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0200, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Kin Shing Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$768M in FY2026 versus HK$601M in FY2022, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.7M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$326M (≈ $41.5M) · P/S ratio 0.35 · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity 1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.1% · Operating margin −0.4% · Revenue (TTM) HK$768M · Revenue growth (YoY) −10.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 456% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −82%, 1630 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0400Fair Value HK$0.0400Bull HK$0.0400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−8.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.1% vs −28.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → −2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 802 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−81.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Return on assets−2.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−0.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.36× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.05× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF6.4× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)6· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Is Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0400 versus a price of HK$0.2170, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1630?
Our model-based fair value for Kin Shing Holdings Ltd is HK$0.0400 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2170.
What is the quality score of 1630?
Kin Shing Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0400 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kin Shing Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0400, about −82% upside versus a price of HK$0.2170 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
Kin Shing Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$768M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kin Shing Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +16.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1630 use?
Our models discount Kin Shing Holdings Ltd at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.67, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kin Shing Holdings Ltd that is +16.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kin Shing Holdings Ltd grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies +16.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (+16.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.98 %: that much free cash flow Kin Shing Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kin Shing Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.0400 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2170. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kin Shing Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1630 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2170, fair value HK$0.0400, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1630?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2170); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0400). For Kin Shing Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.1770 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kin Shing Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Kin Shing Holdings Ltd at about HK$326M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2170; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0400 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.5%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1630 from its 52-week high?
Kin Shing Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.2170, about 51% below its 52-week high of HK$0.4450 and 456% above the low of HK$0.0390 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kin Shing Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kin Shing Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.2170, calculated fair value HK$0.0400 (−82%), Quality Score 58/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1630 calculated?
We run Kin Shing Holdings Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Kin Shing Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.2170. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0400, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kin Shing Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
The market capitalisation of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd is HK$326M (≈ $41.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd is 0.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
The net margin of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd is 0.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd is −4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
The operating margin of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd is −0.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
Revenue at Kin Shing Holdings Ltd is growing −10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630)?
Earnings per share at Kin Shing Holdings Ltd are growing −91.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kin Shing Holdings Ltd (1630) carry?
The net debt of Kin Shing Holdings Ltd is HK$52.8M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 8.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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