GeneFerm Biotechnology Co (1796) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · TW · Market cap 1.3B TWD
Fair value as of: Jul 23, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Share price −8.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 50% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (19.14 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 28.41 TWD – 149.87 TWD · fair‑value band 11.49 TWD – 19.14 TWD · the 30.70 TWD price screens above the 15.32 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 23, 2026.
Analysis
GeneFerm Biotechnology Co (1796) currently trades at 30.70 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 15.32 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 50.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, GeneFerm Biotechnology Co generated revenue of 664M TWD at a net margin of 2.4%. Revenue declined 7.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.0%. Net debt stands at 39.8M TWD. Fundamentals as of Jul 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 11.49 TWD (bear case) to 19.14 TWD (bull case); at 30.70 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -50%, 1796 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (27.18 TWD) versus Economic Profit (6.85 TWD). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
GeneFerm Biotechnology Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells fermented health products in Taiwan and internationally.
Full company description
GeneFerm Biotechnology Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells fermented health products in Taiwan and internationally. The company provides microbial fermentation products, including fungi, bacteria, lactic acid bacteria, yeast, algae, etc.; bio fermented ingredients, such as nattomena, natto fermented powder, red yeast rice fermented powder, antrodia cinnamomea mycelia powder, cordyceps, reishi mycelia, phellinus linteus mycelia powder, armillaria mellea mycelia powder, beta-glucan powder, and fruits and vegetables fermented enzyme, as well as probiotics and peptide ingredients. It also provides private label supplements; and microbial fermentation toll manufacturing services. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Tainan City, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
GeneFerm Biotechnology Co reported revenue of 677M TWD in FY2025 versus 522M TWD in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was 28.9M TWD in FY2025, compounding −15.8%/yr from FY2021.
1796 screens 50% overvalued. Compare with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co →
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 622 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 | ¥53.19 | ¥25.94 | -51% |
| Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA | ₹1,933 | ₹989.50 | -49% |
| Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB | ₹7,316 | ₹1,943 | -73% |
| Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM | ₹4,763 | ₹1,329 | -72% |
| PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 | 1,285 TWD | 221.01 TWD | -83% |
| Cipla Limited CIPLA | ₹1,439 | ₹1,001 | -30% |
| Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE | ₹1,151 | ₹703.32 | -39% |
| Lupin Limited LUPIN | ₹2,443 | ₹2,477 | +1% |
| Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND | ₹2,484 | ₹983.11 | -60% |
| Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY | ₹1,211 | ₹874.79 | -28% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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