EN DE

BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$6.5B

BM BAIC Motor Corp Ltd 1958 · HK
PriceHK$0.8150
Fair ValueHK$1.18
Upside+44.8%
Quality49/100
Watch BAIC Motor Corp Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Weak Growth
Loss-making · -1.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Narrow moat 21/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.5800 – HK$1.62 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.5800 to HK$1.18 (+103.4%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price −3.0% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 45% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.5800 to HK$1.62). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$3.98 HK$0.7800 Fair Value HK$1.18 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.7800 – HK$3.98 · fair‑value band HK$0.5800 – HK$1.62 · the HK$0.8150 price screens below the HK$1.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958) currently trades at HK$0.8150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.18, implying the stock looks roughly 44.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, BAIC Motor Corp Ltd generated revenue of HK$153B at a net margin of -1.1%. Revenue declined 26.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$6.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.5800 (bear case) to HK$1.62 (bull case); at HK$0.8150, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 45%, 1958 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$4.33 HK$5.34 HK$6.99 80
Residual Income HK$4.78 HK$4.40 HK$2.89 76
ROIC Compounder HK$5.42 HK$5.81 HK$6.15 72
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$4.35 HK$5.48 HK$7.40 38
Owner Earnings HK$3.53 HK$4.00 HK$4.79 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$6.70 HK$10.37 HK$15.52 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$12.97 HK$23.46 HK$37.04 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$3.56 HK$3.82 HK$4.10 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$5.70 HK$8.88 HK$14.04 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$9.95 HK$18.32 HK$31.86 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$3.82 HK$4.16 HK$4.58 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1000 HK$0.5000 HK$0.6900 54
Lynch FV HK$0.1300 HK$0.1900 HK$0.2500 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1900 HK$0.2500 46
EPV HK$5.42 HK$5.81 HK$6.15 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.14 HK$2.28 HK$3.45 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.14 HK$1.97 HK$2.40 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.2500 HK$0.3400 HK$0.4200 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.2000 HK$0.2600 HK$0.3300 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.2000 HK$0.2600 HK$0.3300 55
EV/EBIT HK$10.31 HK$12.76 HK$15.22 53
EV/EBITDA HK$18.39 HK$23.54 HK$28.69 54
EV/Revenue HK$7.91 HK$10.03 HK$12.16 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.62 HK$4.85 HK$7.23 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$4.33 HK$5.34 HK$6.99 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.78 HK$4.40 HK$2.89 76
ROIC Compounder HK$5.42 HK$5.81 HK$6.15 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.2200 HK$0.3100 HK$0.4000 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$5.48) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.1900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Notify me when 1958 reaches fair value

Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$153B
Revenue growth (YoY) -26.0%
Net margin -1.1%
Return on equity 3.4%
Free cash flow HK$906M FY2025
P/E ratio 40.5 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 2.2%
EPS (TTM) HK$-0.1100
EPS growth (YoY) -10.2%
Net cash HK$6.0B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 19
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 2
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

BAIC Motor Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, sale, and after-sale service of passenger vehicles in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

BAIC Motor Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, sale, and after-sale service of passenger vehicles in the People's Republic of China. It also offers engines, powertrains, power batteries, and other core parts and components for passenger vehicles, as well as range extenders, transmissions, and new energy reducers. In addition, the company is involved in car financing and automobile aftermarket-related activities. It sells its products under the Beijing Brand, Beijing Benz, Beijing Hyundai, and Fujian Benz brand names. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

BAIC Motor Corp Ltd reported revenue of HK$164B in FY2025 versus HK$176B in FY2021, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$123M in FY2025, compounding −57.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$164B
Latest YoY
−14.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.5%
Avg. growth/yr (14Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+37.4%
Revenue −1.7%/yr
FY21 HK$176B
FY22 HK$190B
FY23 HK$198B
FY24 HK$192B
FY25 HK$164B
Net income −57.8%/yr
FY21 HK$3.9B
FY22 HK$4.2B
FY23 HK$3.0B
FY24 HK$956M
FY25 HK$123M

Watch 1958: get an alert when its fair value changes →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
Share or link this analysis
𝕏 Post WhatsApp LinkedIn Reddit
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

BAIC Motor Corp Ltd · Fair Value
HK$1.18 +45%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BAIC Motor Corp Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1958

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Above median
Fair Value upside +45% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) -1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Revenue growth -26% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 16.0% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 40.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.29× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 93 · sector 33
FUTURE 0 · sector 33
PAST 14 · sector 20
HEALTH 98 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 51

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $188.22 $247.83 +32%
BYD Company 81211 HK$76.90 HK$48.59 -37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 418,500 KRW 567,393 KRW +36%
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N 1,909 MXN 2,610 MXN +37%
Volkswagen AG VOW 2,149 CZK 7,783 CZK +262%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹13,875 ₹8,236 -41%
Kia Corporation 000270 135,600 KRW 341,751 KRW +152%
Weichai Power Co 2338 HK$36.40 HK$28.46 -22%
Geely Automobile Holdings 80175 HK$15.50 HK$19.14 +23%
Bajaj Auto Limited BAJAJAUTO ₹11,700 ₹4,574 -61%

Compare BAIC Motor Corp Ltd with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.18 versus a price of HK$0.8150, about +45% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1958?
Our model-based fair value for BAIC Motor Corp Ltd is HK$1.18 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.8150.
What is the quality score of 1958?
BAIC Motor Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?
BAIC Motor Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$153B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1958?
The net profit margin of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd is about -1.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track BAIC Motor Corp Ltd and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.