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BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd HK$4.99, price HK$0.70, upside +612.9%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · HK · Home China · ISIN CNE100001TJ4

BM Thin data Sep 29, 2026

BAIC Motor Corp Ltd

1958 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$4.99 · Strongly undervalued (+612.9%)

!Quality 49/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.5 %/yr)

!Loss over the last twelve months · -1.1% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 0.1%

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

!Mixed vs. peers (7/12)

!Narrow moat 21/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on past: 14 out of 100

26 models, one by onewith weight and evidence Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 49/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.6950 – HK$3.98 · the HK$0.7000 price screens below the HK$4.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

BAIC Motor Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, sale, and after-sale service of passenger vehicles in the People's Republic of China. It also offers engines, powertrains, power batteries, and other core parts and components for passenger vehicles, as well as range extenders, transmissions, and new energy reducers. In addition, the company is involved in car financing and automobile aftermarket-related activities. It sells its products under the Beijing Brand, Beijing Benz, Beijing Hyundai, and Fujian Benz brand names. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958) currently trades at HK$0.7000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.99, implying the stock looks roughly 86.0% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$6.29 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$0.7000 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$1.94, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

BAIC Motor Corp Ltd reported revenue of 164B CNY in FY2025 versus 176B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was 123M CNY in FY2025, compounding −57.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$6.5B (≈ $827M) · P/E ratio 39.1 · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0179 · Net margin 0.1% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8% · Operating margin 2.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 613%, 1958 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$4.99 Fair Value HK$4.99 Bull HK$4.99

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF HK$5.12 HK$6.29 HK$8.12 82

Growth DCF HK$5.09 HK$6.11 HK$7.59 80

Owner Earnings HK$4.29 HK$4.88 HK$5.80 78

All 25 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$5.12 HK$6.29 HK$8.12 82

Owner Earnings HK$4.29 HK$4.88 HK$5.80 78

5Y Revenue Exit HK$7.65 HK$11.67 HK$17.31 72

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$14.50 HK$25.96 HK$40.78 73

5Y P/E Exit HK$4.23 HK$4.53 HK$4.85 72

10Y Revenue Exit HK$6.47 HK$9.75 HK$15.06 66

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$10.81 HK$19.38 HK$33.21 66

10Y P/E Exit HK$4.55 HK$4.94 HK$5.43 65

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$0.1200 HK$0.5900 HK$0.8100 64

Lynch FV HK$0.1600 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2900 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$0.1600 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2900 57

EPV HK$5.99 HK$6.34 HK$6.62 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$1.18 HK$2.13 HK$2.93 68

DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.18 HK$1.94 HK$2.27 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$0.3000 HK$0.3900 HK$0.4900 63

P/S Multiple HK$0.2300 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3800 58

P/B Multiple HK$0.2300 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3800 55

EV/EBIT HK$12.04 HK$14.91 HK$17.78 66

EV/EBITDA HK$21.49 HK$27.51 HK$33.52 67

EV/Revenue HK$9.24 HK$11.72 HK$14.21 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$4.23 HK$5.66 HK$8.45 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$5.09 HK$6.11 HK$7.59 80

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$5.33 HK$4.85 HK$4.50 76

ROIC Compounder HK$5.99 HK$6.34 HK$6.62 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.2500 HK$0.3600 HK$0.4700 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 28

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 19

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 38

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 58

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 90

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 68

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 9

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 0

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100

Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Revenue growth 1 year

−14.8%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−4.9%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−1.5%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.9% a year

Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+37.4%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

−49.8%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−49.8%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−49.8% vs −31.8%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 3%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

less than -40 %

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

+2.4%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.7% a year for the forecasts.

Forecast 2026 (sales)−0.8%

Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.5%

Projected 2028 (sales)+3.3%

Projected 2029 (sales)+3.2%

Projected 2030 (sales)+3.0%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 102 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 49 · Above median

Fair Value upside +200.0% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 3.4% · Below median

Return on assets 2.7% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) −1.1% · Bottom 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 2.2% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −26.0% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 16.0% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.03× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 39.1× · Priciest 25%

P/FCF 0.9× · Cheapest 25%

PEG 0.29× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 48

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 32

PAST (return on equity)14 · sector 24

HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 93

DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Tesla, Inc TSLA	$354.81	$40.97	−88%
Toyota Motor Corporation TM	$183.10	$211.47	+15%
BYD Company 002594	¥83.31	¥61.43	−26%
General Motors Company GM	$77.00	$60.53	−21%
Ferrari N.V RACE	$392.85	$432.14	+10%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380	353,500 KRW	362,081 KRW	+2%
Ford Motor Company F	$12.27	$12.59	+3%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911	€43.00	€22.09	−49%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG	€39.73	€106.67	+169%
Honda Motor Co HMC	$31.62	$20.31	−36%

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BAIC Motor Corp Ltd · Fair Value
HK$4.99 +86%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BAIC Motor Corp Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1958

Frequently asked questions

Is BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.99 versus a price of HK$0.7000, about +613% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 1958?

Our model-based fair value for BAIC Motor Corp Ltd is HK$4.99 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.7000.

What is the quality score of 1958?

BAIC Motor Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.99 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 25 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the BAIC Motor Corp Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$4.99, about +613% upside versus a price of HK$0.7000 (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

BAIC Motor Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 153B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).

What growth is priced into BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BAIC Motor Corp Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.5 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1958 use?

Our models discount BAIC Motor Corp Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BAIC Motor Corp Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at BAIC Motor Corp Ltd grew -1.5 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.17 %: that much free cash flow BAIC Motor Corp Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BAIC Motor Corp Ltd it is HK$4.99 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$0.7000. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is BAIC Motor Corp Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 29, 2026, 1958 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.7000, fair value HK$4.99, a gap of about +613% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 1958?

No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.7000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.99). For BAIC Motor Corp Ltd the two are HK$4.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is BAIC Motor Corp Ltd worth?

The market values BAIC Motor Corp Ltd at about HK$6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.7000; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.99 per share.

What is the P/E ratio of 1958?

BAIC Motor Corp Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.1 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$4.99 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 29.9 (reported 39.1). Other multiples: PEG 0.3.

What is the PEG ratio of 1958?

The PEG ratio of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd is 0.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.

How solid is the balance sheet of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

Balance-sheet figures for BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 1958 from its 52-week high?

BAIC Motor Corp Ltd trades at HK$0.7000, about 68% below its 52-week high of HK$2.20 and 1% above the low of HK$0.6950 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.99 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to BAIC Motor Corp Ltd?

From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is BAIC Motor Corp Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$0.7000, calculated fair value HK$4.99 (+613%), Quality Score 49/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 1958 calculated?

We run BAIC Motor Corp Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BAIC Motor Corp Ltd currently trades 86 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$0.7000. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.99, about +613% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with BAIC Motor Corp Ltd right now?

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$4.99). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

The market capitalisation of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd is HK$6.5B (≈ $827M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

The price-to-sales ratio of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd is 0.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

Earnings per share at BAIC Motor Corp Ltd are HK$0.0179 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

The net margin of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd is 0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

The return on equity (ROE) of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

The operating margin of BAIC Motor Corp Ltd is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

Revenue at BAIC Motor Corp Ltd is growing −26.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958)?

Earnings per share at BAIC Motor Corp Ltd are growing −10.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net cash does BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958) hold?

BAIC Motor Corp Ltd holds more cash than debt, 6.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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