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ageas SA (1AGS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ageas SA €61.24, price €73.35, upside -16.5%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
ageas SA
1AGS · MIOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value €61.24 · Overvalued (−16.5%)
!Quality 56/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +22.7 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 18.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓5.1% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 54/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €26.98 – €77.00 · fair‑value band €48.43 – €87.61 · the €73.35 price screens above the €61.24 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
ageas SA/NV, together with its subsidiaries, engages in insurance business. It operates through five segments: Belgium, Europe, Asia, Reinsurance, and General Account. The company provides property, casualty, and life insurance products, as well as pension products; and reinsurance products.
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ageas SA/NV, together with its subsidiaries, engages in insurance business. It operates through five segments: Belgium, Europe, Asia, Reinsurance, and General Account. The company provides property, casualty, and life insurance products, as well as pension products; and reinsurance products. It offers life insurance products include risks related to the life, and death of individuals; and non-life insurance products comprise accident and health, motor, and fire insurance products, as well as insurance services for other damages to property; and pension funds. The company serves private individuals, as well as small, medium-sized, and large companies through independent brokers and the bank channels. ageas SA/NV was founded in 1824 and is based in Brussels, Belgium.
Stock analysis
ageas SA (1AGS) currently trades at €73.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €61.24, 16.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €66.04 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the €73.35 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €30.23, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €48.43 (bear) to €87.61 (bull), the price of €73.35 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ageas SA reported revenue of €9.0B in FY2025 versus €12.9B in FY2021, a compound −8.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.7B in FY2025, compounding +19.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €14.0B · P/E ratio 8.1 · P/S ratio 1.53 · EPS (TTM) €9.09 · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin 18.9% · Return on equity 18.8% · Return on assets 0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −17%, 1AGS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €48.43
Fair Value €61.24
Bull €87.61
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€4.04 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
€51.95
€66.04
€102.63
71
DDM Multi-Stage
€28.83
€47.85
€62.92
64
Gordon GGM
€28.83
€59.95
€95.10
63
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€28.83
€59.95
€95.10
63
DDM Multi-Stage
€28.83
€47.85
€62.92
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€79.78
€106.37
€132.97
63
P/B Multiple
€47.38
€63.17
€78.97
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€22.56
€30.23
€45.12
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€51.95
€66.04
€102.63
71
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
56/100
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Profitability
43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
92
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
10
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
79
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
52
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+21.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.1%
2025 sits 50% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.4% a year for the price.
1AGS screens overvalued: fair value 17% below the price. Compare with Allianz SE →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (67 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- Ageas completes the sale of its 30.95% stake in Maybank Ageas Holdings Berhad to Maybank
- Ageas SA/ NV (AGESF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth and Raised Guidance ...
- Ageas reports first half-year results 2026
- Ageas sells its stake in Maybank Ageas Holdings Berhad to its JV partner Maybank for EUR 1.1 billion
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allianz SE ALV | €412.00 | €229.84 | −44% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 563.60 | CHF 328.80 | −42% |
| AXA SA CS | €41.90 | €36.28 | −13% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €42.75 | €10.92 | −74% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | $79.48 | $41.03 | −48% |
| American International Group AIG | $74.17 | $71.58 | −3% |
| Talanx AG TLX | €117.40 | €91.88 | −22% |
| The Hartford Insurance Group HIG | $126.04 | $115.03 | −9% |
| Arch Capital Group ACGL | $94.26 | $127.51 | +35% |
| Swiss Life Holding SLHN | CHF 891.00 | CHF 413.93 | −54% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is ageas SA (1AGS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €61.24 versus a price of €73.35, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1AGS?
Our model-based fair value for ageas SA is €61.24 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €73.35.
What is the quality score of 1AGS?
ageas SA has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ageas SA (1AGS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €61.24 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €48.43, optimistic scenario €87.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ageas SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €61.24, about −17% upside versus a price of €73.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €48.43, optimistic scenario €87.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ageas SA (1AGS)?
ageas SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €9.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does ageas SA pay a dividend?
ageas SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.11% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into ageas SA (1AGS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ageas SA would have to grow free cash flow by -9.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -8.5 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1AGS use?
Our models discount ageas SA at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ageas SA that is -9.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ageas SA (1AGS) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at ageas SA grew -8.5 % a year. The price currently implies -9.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ageas SA (1AGS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ageas SA (-9.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ageas SA (1AGS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.41 %: that much free cash flow ageas SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ageas SA (1AGS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ageas SA it is €61.24 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of €73.35. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ageas SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 1AGS trades above its calculated fair value: price €73.35, fair value €61.24, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1AGS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€73.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€61.24). For ageas SA the two are €12.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ageas SA worth?
The market values ageas SA at about €14.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is €73.35; our models calculate a fair value of €61.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1AGS?
Our models span a range for ageas SA: cautious scenario €48.43, base €61.24, optimistic €87.61 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price €73.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 1AGS from its 52-week high?
ageas SA trades at €73.35, about 5% below its 52-week high of €77.00 and 54% above the low of €47.62 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €61.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ageas SA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ageas SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price €73.35, calculated fair value €61.24 (−17%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1AGS calculated?
We run ageas SA through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €61.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ageas SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ageas SA (1AGS)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €73.35. Our model-based fair value is €61.24, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ageas SA right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€48.43 to €87.61) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of ageas SA
How large is the market capitalisation of ageas SA (1AGS)?
The market capitalisation of ageas SA is €14.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of ageas SA (1AGS)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of ageas SA is 8.1. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of ageas SA (1AGS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ageas SA is 1.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ageas SA (1AGS)?
Earnings per share at ageas SA are €9.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ageas SA (1AGS)?
The dividend yield of ageas SA is 5.1% (payout 41.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ageas SA (1AGS)?
The net margin of ageas SA is 18.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ageas SA (1AGS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ageas SA is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of ageas SA (1AGS)?
The return on assets (ROA) of ageas SA is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of ageas SA (1AGS)?
The operating margin of ageas SA is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ageas SA (1AGS)?
Revenue at ageas SA is growing +19.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ageas SA (1AGS)?
Earnings per share at ageas SA are growing +109% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ageas SA (1AGS) carry?
The net debt of ageas SA is €3.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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