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ASML Holding (1ASML) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ASML Holding €1,198, price €1,653, upside -27.5%, quality 83 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Oct 2, 2026
ASML Holding
1ASML · MIGreat Company, Expensive PriceQuality growthHigh Quality, but the stock trades above estimated Fair Value.
!Fair value €1,198 · Overvalued (−27.5%)
✓Quality 83/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +15.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 29.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.4% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 99/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €385.03 – €1,722 · fair‑value band €704.00 – €1,492 · the €1,653 price screens above the €1,198 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems.
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ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
ASML Holding (1ASML) currently trades at €1,653, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1,198, 27.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €770.74 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €1,653 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €241.24, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €704.00 (bear) to €1,492 (bull), the price of €1,653 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 83/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ASML Holding reported revenue of €32.7B in FY2025 versus €21.2B in FY2022, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was €9.6B in FY2025, compounding +19.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €637B · P/E ratio 64.0 · P/S ratio 18.8 · EPS (TTM) €25.84 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 29.4% · Return on equity 52.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 101% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −28%, 1ASML screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €704.00
Fair Value €1,198
Bull €1,492
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€15.08 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€442.50
€852.66
€1,641
73
EPV
€258.13
€299.01
€335.35
71
Growth DCF
€436.16
€804.84
€1,497
71
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€442.50
€852.66
€1,641
73
Owner Earnings
€366.81
€702.35
€1,348
69
5Y Revenue Exit
€339.14
€583.45
€921.39
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
€435.83
€791.10
€1,251
70
5Y P/E Exit
€496.66
€921.75
€1,427
66
10Y Revenue Exit
€359.09
€611.35
€1,014
62
10Y EBITDA Exit
€435.84
€770.74
€1,308
63
10Y P/E Exit
€477.81
€871.02
€1,465
59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€169.54
€898.59
€1,244
61
Lynch FV
€247.48
€353.54
€459.60
58
PEG = 1.0
€247.48
€353.54
€459.60
55
EPV
€258.13
€299.01
€335.35
71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€63.65
€138.96
€233.80
63
DDM Multi-Stage
€63.65
€113.83
€144.81
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€523.58
€698.11
€872.64
63
P/S Multiple
€317.89
€423.85
€529.81
58
P/B Multiple
€228.99
€305.31
€381.64
55
EV/EBIT
€554.29
€730.22
€906.16
66
EV/EBITDA
€458.27
€602.20
€746.13
67
EV/Revenue
€293.32
€407.68
€522.03
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€25.44
€34.09
€50.89
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€436.16
€804.84
€1,497
71
Rev-Margin DCF
€339.14
€576.46
€896.93
68
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€154.89
€241.24
€599.27
65
ROIC Compounder
€273.61
€336.24
€406.17
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€429.09
€612.99
€796.88
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
83/100
Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Profitability
81
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
85
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
85
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
42
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
36
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
83
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
96
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
96
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 35%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+20.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.4% a year for the price and +17.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+20.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+24.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+21.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+18.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+16.0%
1ASML screens overvalued: fair value 28% below the price. Compare with Lam Research Corporation →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- ASML, TSM Earnings Could Expose a New Risk for the AI Trade
- Here is What to Know Beyond Why ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is a Trending Stock
- Does ASML (ENXTAM:ASML) Share Buybacks Mask Rising Geopolitical Risk in Its AI EUV Monopoly?
- ASML Stock Surges 3.8% as AI Rebound Returns to Lithography
Compare ASML Holding with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 214 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Valuation of the Italy market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| KLA Corporation KLAC | $187.92 | $160.12 | −15% |
| Teradyne, Inc TER | $415.79 | $65.79 | −84% |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 | ¥339.30 | ¥110.10 | −68% |
| Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 | 5,670 TWD | 4,864 TWD | −14% |
| Piotech Inc 688072 | ¥700.90 | ¥320.60 | −54% |
| Qnity Electronics, Inc Q | $124.69 | $70.44 | −44% |
| Entegris, Inc ENTG | $151.89 | $92.64 | −39% |
| Hwatsing Technology Co 688120 | ¥247.17 | ¥92.46 | −63% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is ASML Holding (1ASML) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €1,198 versus a price of €1,653, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1ASML?
Our model-based fair value for ASML Holding is €1,198 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1,653.
What is the quality score of 1ASML?
ASML Holding has a Quality Score of 83/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ASML Holding (1ASML)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €1,198 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €704.00, optimistic scenario €1,492. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ASML Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €1,198, about −28% upside versus a price of €1,653 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €704.00, optimistic scenario €1,492. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ASML Holding (1ASML)?
ASML Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €33.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does ASML Holding pay a dividend?
ASML Holding currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.36% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into ASML Holding (1ASML)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ASML Holding would have to grow free cash flow by +36.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +15.6 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1ASML use?
Our models discount ASML Holding at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.40, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ASML Holding that is +36.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ASML Holding (1ASML) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at ASML Holding grew +15.6 % a year. The price currently implies +36.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ASML Holding (1ASML) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ASML Holding (+36.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ASML Holding (1ASML)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.73 %: that much free cash flow ASML Holding produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ASML Holding (1ASML)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ASML Holding it is €1,198 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of €1,653. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ASML Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 1ASML trades above its calculated fair value: price €1,653, fair value €1,198, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1ASML?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1,653); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€1,198). For ASML Holding the two are €454.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ASML Holding worth?
The market values ASML Holding at about €637B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is €1,653; our models calculate a fair value of €1,198 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1ASML?
Our models span a range for ASML Holding: cautious scenario €704.00, base €1,198, optimistic €1,492 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price €1,653). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1ASML?
ASML Holding trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 64.0 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €1,198 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 36.9, P/S 21.5, EV/EBITDA 56.1.
What is the PEG ratio of 1ASML?
The PEG ratio of ASML Holding is 2.81 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ASML Holding (1ASML)?
Balance-sheet figures for ASML Holding (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 52.2%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 83/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1ASML from its 52-week high?
ASML Holding trades at €1,653, about 4% below its 52-week high of €1,722 and 101% above the low of €823.23 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €1,198 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ASML Holding?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Lam Research Corporation, Applied Materials, Inc, KLA Corporation, Teradyne, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ASML Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price €1,653, calculated fair value €1,198 (−28%), Quality Score 83/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1ASML calculated?
We run ASML Holding through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €1,198, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ASML Holding itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ASML Holding (1ASML)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €1,653. Our model-based fair value is €1,198, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ASML Holding right now?
A high-quality business (quality 83/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€1,492). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (€704.00 to €1,492) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of ASML Holding
How large is the market capitalisation of ASML Holding (1ASML)?
The market capitalisation of ASML Holding is €637B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ASML Holding (1ASML)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ASML Holding is 18.8 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ASML Holding (1ASML)?
Earnings per share at ASML Holding are €25.84 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 64.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ASML Holding (1ASML)?
The dividend yield of ASML Holding is 0.4% (payout 22.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ASML Holding (1ASML)?
The net margin of ASML Holding is 29.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ASML Holding (1ASML)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ASML Holding is 52.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ASML Holding (1ASML)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ASML Holding is 20.4% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ASML Holding (1ASML)?
The operating margin of ASML Holding is 36.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ASML Holding (1ASML)?
Revenue at ASML Holding is growing +13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ASML Holding (1ASML)?
Earnings per share at ASML Holding are growing +19.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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