Simcere Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2096) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$27.7B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$12.88 to HK$12.89 (+0.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −6.5% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from HK$8.99 (bear) to HK$15.89 (bull), base HK$12.89. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 72/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$4.70 – HK$14.49 · fair‑value band HK$8.99 – HK$15.89 · the HK$12.14 price screens below the HK$12.89 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Simcere Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2096) currently trades at HK$12.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.89, implying the stock looks roughly 6.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Simcere Pharmaceutical Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$7.7B at a net margin of 17.4%. Revenue grew 17.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$2.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$8.99 (bear case) to HK$15.89 (bull case); at HK$12.14, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at 6%, 2096 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$11.30) versus Dividend Discount (HK$2.45). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Simcere Pharmaceutical Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of pharmaceutical products to distributors, pharmacy chains, and other pharmaceutical manufacturers in China.
Full company description
Simcere Pharmaceutical Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of pharmaceutical products to distributors, pharmacy chains, and other pharmaceutical manufacturers in China. It develops Endostar, a recombinant human endostatin injection; ENWEIDA, an envafolimab injection; Leruiping, a fully human monoclonal antibody targeting IL-4Ra; Zemprocitinib a highly selective JAK1 inhibitor; and Xianlinda, an inhibitor for influenza polymerase acidic protein that has completed Phase 3 clinical trials. The company also develops SIM0270, a new-generation oral SERD with blood-brain barrier penetration characteristics; Denlorlatinib; SIM0395, a BBB-penetrant inhibitor of the PI3K/mTOR pathway; and deuterated remdesivir hydrobromide dry suspension that are in Phase 3 clinical trial, as well as Sanbexin an injection new indication; Sanbexin a sublingual tablets; and SIM0278, a Fc fusion protein (IL2muFc) with an IL2 mutein of regulatory T cells that is in Phase 2 clinical trials. It develops SIM0237, an anti-PD-L1 monoclonal antibody fused with IL-15/IL15RXa sushi protein; Enzeshu, a suvemcitug for injection; SIM0500, a humanized trispecific antibody that targets GPRC5D/BCMA/CD3; SIM0508, a small molecule inhibitor; SIM0505, a CDH6-targeting ADC molecule; SIM0686, an ADC drug targeting FGFR2b; SIM0609, a new antibody-drug conjugate targeting CDH17; SIM0610, a bispecific antibody-drug conjugate; SIM0532, an oral, non-covalent pan-RAS inhibitor; SIM0323; and SIM0811, a small-molecule plasminogen allosteric activator that are in Phase 1 clinical trial. The company develops SIM0613; SIM0709; SIM0689; SIM0688; SIM0518; SIM0616; SIM0611; SIM0815; SIM0712; SIM0725; SIM0708; SIM0721; and SIM0722 that are in pre-clinical stage. It offers pharmaceutical ingredients; production support facility; consulting and technology; promotion; and property management. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Nanjing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Simcere Pharmaceutical Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$7.7B in FY2025 versus HK$5.0B in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.3B in FY2025, compounding −2.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Simcere Pharmaceutical Enters into a Research Collaboration Agreement with Stanford Medicine to Develop Innovative Therapies for Patients wi
- NextCure and Simcere Zaiming Initiate Dose Optimization for SIM0505 (CDH6 ADC) in Gynecologic Cancers
- NextCure and Simcere’s SIM0505 (CDH6 ADC) Phase 1 Data to be Presented at ASCO 2026
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 622 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 | ¥53.76 | ¥25.94 | -52% |
| Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA | ₹1,944 | ₹989.50 | -49% |
| Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB | ₹8,500 | ₹1,932 | -77% |
| Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM | ₹4,915 | ₹1,163 | -76% |
| PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 | 1,440 TWD | 233.93 TWD | -84% |
| Cipla Limited CIPLA | ₹1,463 | ₹1,001 | -32% |
| Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE | ₹1,167 | ₹703.32 | -40% |
| Lupin Limited LUPIN | ₹2,281 | ₹2,477 | +9% |
| Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND | ₹2,433 | ₹983.11 | -60% |
| Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY | ₹1,200 | ₹874.79 | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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